PITCHING SPLITS:
A friend who doesn’t follow baseball very intensely asked me an interesting question a few months ago. He wondered why it is that sometimes a team will beat another, and then the losing team will dominate the following night. I explained that it’s because there are different starting pitchers and different pitchers available out of the pen in each game. When the pitcher and batter have the same strong arm, it gives the pitcher a slight advantage, and vice versa. Hence, different lineups match up differently against different pitchers.
An example is a series from late June between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees. The Orioles have a .752 OPS against right-handed pitchers and are one of the most challenging opponents for righties. However, they are slightly less dangerous against left-handed pitchers. Nestor Cortes started the first game of the series for the Yankees. The left-handed Cortes has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.22 against righties, and 0.97 against lefties (WHIP - walks & hits allowed per innings pitched - lower is better). Cortes pitched well and the Yankees won 4-2. Luis Gil started the final game of the series for the Yankees. The right-handed Gil has a 1.17 WHIP which is almost identical to Cortes’s 1.15. However, Gil’s WHIP against lefties is 1.32 and 1.06 against righties. Due to the Orioles’ splits lining up with Gil’s splits, the Orioles destroyed Gil and won the game 17-5. That’s how the results between the same two teams were 14 runs different within a few days.
PLAYOFF ROTATIONS:
In the very first article I ever wrote, I explained why the best team in the regular season isn’t necessarily the best team in the playoffs. A team’s pitching rotation turns over every 5 days. In the regular season, teams play 6 or 7 games a week. Hence, teams use 5 or 6 starters and 6 or 7 relievers. However, in the playoffs, teams have more off-days and only play 4 or 5 games a week. Therefore, their rotation turns over after only 3 or 4 games and they only need to use 3 or 4 starters and 4 or 5 relievers.
The rotation turning over quicker is a huge advantage to teams with front-heavy pitching staffs. Such as the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Only 36 of the Rangers’ 162 regular season games were pitched by Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi. However, in the playoffs, Montgomery and Eovaldi pitched in 12 out of 17 games. This resulted in the Rangers winning the World Series after failing to win their division. A team can be the best in the playoffs without being the best in the regular season.
THE UPCOMING PLAYOFFS:
The 2024 MLB playoffs are on the horizon and begin in half a month. Every year, we all build brackets and every one of us is way off. At this point last year, nobody had the Rangers facing the Diamondbacks in the World Series. However, if we use the two points I discussed above, we might be able to make better predictions. For example, the San Diego Padres are currently lined up to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Wildcard round. San Diego has a team OPS of .746, .69 against left-handed pitching, and .765 against right-handed pitching. Out of Arizona’s top 3 starters and top 3 relievers, Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly, Paul Sewald, Justin Martinez, and Kevin Ginkel, only Montgomery throws left-handed. In fact, the Padres lineup has put up nearly 7 runs per game in their 10 matchups with Arizona this season. Even though the Diamondbacks are red hot, I’m taking the Padres in a playoff series every time.
As so, we can use statmuse.com and baseball-reference.com to check the pitching matchups for each series. It has been a while since I cashed out on this type of bracket. However, with this strategy, I expect things to be different this postseason. Use my strategy and let me know how you do in the comments below!
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