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Nathan Aronoff

AFC QBs Tier List

Tier 5 - Won’t Last the Season:

Russell Wilson - As a fan of the Denver Broncos, I watched a lot of Russell Wilson’s tape in 2023. I’ve concluded that in Seattle, he heavily relied on his athletic abilities and didn’t beat defenses with his brain very often. In Denver, he was still able to make some plays in that fashion, but he didn’t work well with Sean Payton because he held on to the ball and didn’t read his check-downs until late in the game. He can potentially work well in Pittsburgh if Arthur Smith builds the entire scheme around him. However, with the reports saying that Justin Fields is looking good in camp, I doubt Smith will invest an entire scheme in Wilson. 

Gardner Minshew - Despite having an incredible supporting cast, Gardner Minshew put up a mediocre 2023 season in Indianapolis. While the amount of talent the Raiders have in the receiving core is relatively similar, their arguably bottom-10 offensive line will be much different than the Colts’ arguably top-3 unit. The young Aidan O'Connell, who is second on the depth chart has much more potential than Minshew. Hence, I expect O’Connell to take over the starting role before the end of the season.

Jacoby Brissett - Jacoby Brissett isn’t an NFL starting quarterback. The only reason he’s lined up to start is the fact that Drake Maye isn’t ready. The NFL is an intense business, if you’re not doing your job, you will be fired. Hence, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots staff having the confidence to run Brissett out there for 17 games. The moment the Patriots feel that Drake Maye is ready to play, Brissett will be thrown out like yesterday’s trash.


Tier 4 - Dependant on their Supporting Cast:

Trevor Lawrence - In my opinion, Trevor Lawrence is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL. He was an incredible college quarterback and has had two hot streaks in the NFL. If we remove the two hot streaks, his record as a starter is 10W-30L. I showed 3 of my friends a comparison of Lawrence’s stats and Russell Wilson’s stats as a Bronco, only 1 knew which was Lawrence. In 3 years, Lawrence only has 1 playoff appearance and 1 playoff win. At the end of the day, the quarterback’s job is to win games, and Trevor Lawrence has rarely done so.

Anthony Richardson - In Theory, Anthony Richardson has all the tools necessary to be a good NFL quarterback. He’s big and athletic with a cannon of an arm. However, he’s injury-prone and has put up low completion percentages both in college and the NFL. Nonetheless, on the Indianapolis Colts, he has an incredible offensive line, great weapons, and a great playcaller, Shane Steichen. If he can have success anywhere, it’s with the Colts.

Will Levis - Will Levis showed a lot of good and a lot of bad in his rookie season. He had a 4-touchdown game in his debut, but he also had sub-50% completion percentages in 3 games. I believe that he’ll take a step forward in his second season as a pro. The additions of Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham, and Lloyd Cushenberry to the offense, should benefit Levis. Levis is an athletic quarterback with an incredible deep ball. Therefore, playing behind a better offensive line and throwing to a better group of receivers should improve his play.

Jarrett Stidham - While Bo Nix is the Broncos’ guy, as of now, Jarrett Stidham is listed as the starting quarterback on the Broncos’ website. I believe that if he hangs on to the job until week 1, he’ll overperform and hang onto the job through week 18. Stidham isn’t an athletic freak with a big arm, but he’s a very good game manager. He’s learned from Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and now Sean Payton. While he doesn’t have much game tape, in the last 8 games he’s played, he’s been good. In the past two years, Stidham has an 88.55 passer rating and has turned the ball over very infrequently. Even though he isn’t close to being a franchise quarterback, he’s a very capable game manager. 


Tier 3 - High Ceiling & Low Floor:

Aaron Rodgers - Jets fans are going to hate me for this. In the same way Aaron Rodgers can potentially put up his fifth MVP season, he can also potentially have the worst season of his career. Yes, he’s an all-time great, and yes, the Jets have a good defense and good weapons. Nevertheless, he’s an athlete in his 40s coming off of a major Achilles injury, which rarely goes well. Even before his injury in 2023, he showed signs of regression as he posted a career-low passer rating in 2022. In addition, the Jets tend to find ways to “Jets” things up, they haven’t made the playoffs since 2010. 

Tua Tagovailoa - I believe that Tua Tagovailoa is an underrated quarterback. While he doesn’t have the strongest arm, is injury-prone, and does rely on his good supporting cast, he does deserve some credit for the Dolphins’ turnaround. In the three years before drafting Tua, the Dolphins went 18W-30L, Tua’s record as a starter is 32W-19. Last season, Tua led the NFL in passing yards, which requires talent no matter who your receivers are. In addition, not anyone can run Mike McDaniel’s complex scheme, it takes a very intelligent quarterback. Nonetheless, he’s in Tier 3 because he does tend to occasionally underthrow receivers and has a hard time staying on the field. 

Deshaun Watson - After the Browns traded away a king’s ransom to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans, it was extremely disappointing to see Watson struggle in his first two seasons in Cleveland. Nonetheless, it seems as if the NFL has forgotten what Deshaun Watson can do. From 2018 through 2020, Watson was a top-5 quarterback in the NFL. He went to the Pro Bowl all three years while averaging 303 total yards per game and 2.2 total touchdowns per game. In 2019, Houston’s defense ranked 28th in terms of yards and Watson somehow carried them to a playoff win. Even though it’s more likely that he continues to disappoint in Cleveland, there’s a possibility of him returning to form and dominating the AFC. 


Tier 2 - Franchise Quarterbacks:

Lamar Jackson - Lamar Jackson is coming off of his second MVP season. He’s one of, if not the most dynamic players in the game of football. Nevertheless, I couldn’t put him in Tier 1 for two reasons: The first is his lack of playoff success. The great quarterbacks step up their games in the playoffs. However, from the regular season to the playoffs, Lamar’s passer rating in the playoffs drops from 98.0 to 75.7, and his team’s winning percentage drops from 75.3% to 33.3%. The second reason is his lack of consistency. After Lamar’s first two Pro Bowl seasons, he missed the Pro Bowl the following years. His numbers go up and down all the time. The perfect example is his touchdown rate: In 2018 it was 3.5%, in 2019 it spiked to 9%, in 2020 it dropped to 6.9%, in 2021 it dropped even more to 4.2%, in 2022 it began to climb back to 5.2%, and then in 2023 it stayed pretty even at 5.3%. There’s no pattern at all. 

CJ Stroud - In his rookie season in 2023, CJ Stroud was awesome. Stroud took over a collapsing Texans franchise and instantly turned it around. On his way to winning Rookie of the Year, Stroud won 9 of 15 games, led 3 game-winning drives, had the lowest interception rate in the NFL, and led the league in passing yards per game. Unlike Lamar, Stroud was just as dominant in the playoffs. In the very first playoff game of his career, CJ Stroud exploded for 449 yards and 3 touchdowns against the number 1 defense in terms of yards in the NFL. With Tank Dell returning from injury, and the Texans adding Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to their offense, I expect Stroud to be even better in 2024. The only reason he’s not in Tier 1 is the small sample size. 

Justin Herbert - Ever since his rookie year in 2020, Justin Herbert has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Herbert averages a ridiculous 277.8 passing yards and 2.01 total touchdowns per game. Even without good coaching or good offensive lines, Herbert has been able to put up outstanding numbers. This leaves me wondering what he’ll be able to do with Jim Harbaugh and the offensive line Harbaugh’s assembling. Nonetheless, Herbert doesn’t belong in Tier 1 and is probably the worst quarterback in Tier 2 because he lacks the “it” factor, the ability to will his team to victory. Justin Herbert’s career record as a starting quarterback is 30W-32L, he only has 1 playoff appearance in 4 years, and not a single playoff win. While stats and numbers are nice, at the end of the day, the quarterback’s number 1 job is to win the game and Justin Herbert doesn’t do a very good job of that. I’m not saying that it’s his fault, but the true elite quarterbacks do above and beyond to get the job done.


Tier 1 - Instantly Super Bowl Contenders:

Patrick Mahomes - I don’t think this needs much of an explanation. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. In 6 years as a starter, Mahomes has won 3 Super Bowls, 4 AFC Championships, and 2 MVPs. He has it all. If he continues at this rate he might claim Brady’s throne as the greatest to ever do it.

Joe Burrow - While Joe Burrow has struggled with injuries, it’s driving me crazy that the NFL community has forgotten that he’s one step behind Mahomes. In 4 seasons, Joe Burrow has suffered 2 season-ending injuries. However, in the other two, he took the Bengals to the AFC Championship game both times. That isn’t a small accomplishment, the Bengals are a pathetic franchise. In the two years before drafting Burrow, the Bengals went 8W-24L, Burrow’s record as a starter is 29W-22L-1T. The average quarterback is sacked approximately 2.5 times per game. Despite being sacked 4.14 times per playoff start, Burrow is 5W-2L in the playoffs while putting up 260.8 yards per game. About a year ago Joe Burrow was quoted saying “The (Super Bowl) window is my whole career … The window is always open.” and I couldn’t agree more. If Joe Burrow is on your roster, your team is instantly a Super Bowl contender. 

Josh Allen - While Josh Allen has fallen in the playoffs to either Mahomes or Burrow every year, he still definitely belongs in Tier 1. Since Josh Allen took over as the full-time starter in 2019, the BIlls have won 10 or more games every year. Allen’s physical running style combined with his great deep ball ability puts defenses in an impossible predicament; if they put more players in the box he’ll beat them over the top, but if they don’t he’ll run right through them. Allen is a touchdown machine, averaging 2.35 total touchdowns per game. Nevertheless, he barely qualifies for the top tier due to his 5W-5L record as a starter in the playoffs.

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