THE MLB:
Major League Baseball is unique. It’s very different than the other professional sports leagues in the United States. The two major differences are the minor league system and the absence of a salary cap. Every other league has a salary cap to prevent the richest teams from assembling super teams and dominating the less wealthy competition. However, in baseball, it’s not necessary because forming a super team won’t always result in success. A lot of thought and strategy has to go into collecting players who will play well off each other. The most successful teams are the teams that are built around their homegrown players. Furthermore, the best of the best have been the teams that developed a homegrown core and then used the big money to acquire proven stars as the finishing touches. For example, the Houston Astros core of Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker has been to the ALCS in each of the past 7 seasons. Priority one has always been to develop prospects first and worry about acquiring players second.
THE RISE OF STEVE COHEN:
In 2012, a hedge fund manager by the name of Steve Cohen bought 12% of the New York Mets franchise. Over the years he slowly bought more and more of the team. In September 2020, Cohen made the jump to the owner of 95% of the organization. Now being the majority owner, Cohen made himself the CEO and hired the team’s former general manager, Sandy Alderson, as team president. In 2020, Cohen’s net worth was slightly under 14 billion dollars. Cohen immediately made it clear that he intended to make the Mets a winning franchise and that he was willing to use his wealth to do so. Here are 3 of the many quotes: "This is a major market team and it should have a budget commensurate with that." “If I don't win the World Series in the next 3-5 years, I’d like to make it sooner, I would consider that slightly disappointing.” “I’m not trying to make money here.”
There was a split reaction to Cohen’s burst onto the scene. Many Mets fans were excited to see their team acquire superstars and many fans of rival teams were afraid that Cohen’s new look Mets would become a juggernaut. However, a few of the “old heads” warned us not to get too excited too soon. In the previous full season (excluding the shortened 2020 COVID season), 3 out of the 5 teams with the highest payrolls failed to make the postseason. In baseball, spending a lot of money doesn’t necessarily lead to an equal amount of success.
Steve Cohen didn’t see things the same way as these “old heads”. In accordance, following his first season as CEO, he spent a bit of money. The three largest contracts he gave out were a 4-year 40.6-million-dollar deal to James McCann, a 3-year 23-million-dollar deal to Taijuan Walker, and a 1-year 18-million-dollar deal to Marcus Stroman. It was a bit disappointing to see the Mets’ winning percentage rise by only 4% in 2021, but this was only the beginning. In his second offseason, Cohen gave out 4 major contracts. 130 million dollars over 3 years to Max Scherzer, 78 million dollars over 4 years to Starling Marte, 26.5 million dollars over 2 years to Mark Canha, and 20 million dollars over 2 years to Eduardo Escobar. Over his first two offseasons as majority owner and CEO, Steve Cohen spent 372 million dollars on free agents.
THE FALL OF STEVE COHEN:
At first, it seemed to be working nicely. In 2022, the Mets went 101W-61L, making the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and winning 100 games for the first time 1988. The energy around the team changed quickly when Cohen’s 130-million-dollar pitcher, Max Scherzer, got shelled for 7 runs by the San Diego Padres in the Mets’ very first playoff game of the Cohen era. This ultimately led to the Padres eliminating the Mets in the wildcard series.
The early exit frustrated Cohen and his response was to spend even more money on free agents. In the following offseason, he distributed 8 8-digit contracts. The 3 most notable ones were Justin Verlander’s 2-year 86.6-million-dollar deal, Edwin Diaz’s 5-year 102-million-dollar extension, and Kodai Senga’s 5-year 75-million-dollar deal. Over the 3 offseasons, Cohen had now spent 871 million dollars on free agents. In 2023, the results weren’t what Cohen was hoping for when he spent that money, to say the least. By the end of June (this time last year), a month before the trade deadline, the Mets were 36W-46L, in 4th place in their division, and 18.5 games out of 1st place. Inevitably, the front office decided to throw in the towel and sell veterans for prospects at the deadline. The Mets traded away 5 of the players Cohen signed, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, Justin Verlander, Tommy Pham, and Dominic Leone. 2 of the 3 groups I mentioned above, the rivals’ fans and the “old heads”, rejoiced, and danced on the 2023 Mets’ grave. The total prospect haul was infield prospects Luisangel Acuna, Jeremy Rodriguez, and Jeremiah Jackson, outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, and pitching prospect Justin Jarvis. Not a single of the return prospects was ready to play for the big league club. Hence, the Mets weren’t any better, went 25W-31L after the deadline, and finished the season 75W-87L.
After their disastrous 2023 season, the Mets were expected to be in full rebuild mode. Nevertheless, this past offseason, Cohen handed out 4 8-digit contracts. 28 million dollars over 2 years to Sean Manaea, a 1-year deal worth 13 million dollars to Luis Severino, another 1-year deal worth 12 million dollars to JD Martinez, and a 1-year deal worth 10.5 million dollars to Harrison Bader. Adding to the total of now 951 million dollars spent on free agents over 4 offseasons. Unsurprisingly, the latest additions weren’t enough to revamp the Mets. A month before the 2024 trade deadline, the Mets are 39W-39L, in 3rd place in their division, and 13 games out of first place. They don’t have the starting pitching or the depth required to go on a successful playoff run. Therefore, they’re expected to throw in the towel and sell veterans for prospects at the deadline, the way they did last year.
DID COHEN ACTUALLY FALL?:
When analyzing the Mets’ roster, I noticed that they have 8 solid players, Drew Smith, Jake Diekman, Harrison Bader, JD Martinez, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Pete Alonso, and Starling Marte, who will all be unrestricted free agents either this offseason or the next. Since the Mets aren’t equipped to go on a playoff run in the near future, they’ll trade the majority of these 8 to teams that are equipped. In exchange, they’ll get a handful of decent prospects.
According to Bleacher Report, the Mets have the 9th-best farm system in baseball. The Mets have 5 prospects on the Top-100 list. Only 2 of the 5, #2 Jett Williams and #52 Christian Scott, were drafted by New York. The remaining 3, #40 Drew Gilbert, #74 Ryan Clifford, and #76 Luisangel Acuna were part of the prospect haul the Mets got last year by trading 5 of the players signed by Cohen. I expect them to add another 1 to 3 Top-100 prospects by trading most of the 8 guys I mentioned above, especially if they trade Pete Alonso. Between the 2 deadlines, Cohen’s signings will have brought in 4 or more top-100 prospects.
I started the article by saying that “The most successful teams are the teams that are built around their homegrown players”. Based on his quotes and early actions, the baseball community assumed that Steve Cohen was disregarding that, and trying to do things his way. However, maybe his long-term plan was to build his team through the farm system all along. He simply didn’t want to have to suffer through terrible seasons while waiting for the prospects to come along. As he said: “If I don't win the World Series in the next 3-5 years, I’d like to make it sooner, I would consider that slightly disappointing.” Therefore, while his draftees, Williams and Scott, were developing, he signed as many players as possible to short-term deals. Out of the 19 free agents I mentioned, 14 signed for 3 years or less. If it works, great! If not, they’re nearing the end of their deals and at the trade deadline, they can be flipped for prospects to add to the developing core. He was practically signing prospects. For example, Cohen didn’t pay 86.6 million dollars for 2 years of Justin Verlander, he paid 86.6 million dollars for half a season of Verlander and 3 to 6 years of Ryan Clifford (#74 prospect) and Drew Gilbert (#40 prospect). This is unconventional because there are a lot of uncertainties regarding prospects, so most would shy away from spending a lot of cash on prospects. However, that doesn’t bother Steve Cohen. He said it himself: “I’m not trying to make money here.” Cohen’s current estimated net worth is 19.8 billion dollars. Since he owns 95% of the Mets, out of the 951 million dollars that the Mets have spent on free agents, Cohen’s bill is 903 million dollars. 903 million dollars is only 4.5% of Cohen’s 19.8 billion dollar estimated net worth. It’s pocket change for him. Steve Cohen hasn’t been trying to win now. He’s been spending a bit to entertain himself while he develops his real win-now team.
As I said at the start, “, the best of the best have been the teams that developed a homegrown core and then used the big money to acquire proven stars as the finishing touches.” I expect Cohen to continue signing these short-term deals and flipping them for prospects at the deadline for another year or two. Then, when the prospects are ready, to put the finishing touches on, he’ll spend more than ever. Somewhat similar to the Dodgers. They built their homegrown core of Buehler, Smith, Lux, and Stone, and then spent 1,087 million dollars on the finishing touches this past offseason. They’re now set to not only be contenders but World Series favorites for the next 3 years. Steve Cohen is building something very similar in Queens, and as a Yankee fan, I’m terrified.
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