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Nathan Aronoff

Are the Yankees Back?

After losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets, the Yankees had a lot of work to do to restore their World Series-level roster. New York was now missing an outfielder, a second baseman, a first baseman, and some bullpen depth. General manager Brian Cashman addressed the media and clarified that the Yankees would be aggressive, but “We're not going to be drunken sailors.” 


The Initial Response:

Since Cashman’s presser, the Yankees have added three multi-time All-Stars to their roster. First, they signed left-handed starting pitcher Max Fried to an 8-year 218-million-dollar deal. The Yankees followed that by acquiring Devin Williams, an elite right-handed reliever, from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for left-handed starter Nestor Cortes and AAA infielder Caleb Durbin. Only a matter of days after they added the two pitchers, Cashman and the Yankees addressed the offense by attempting to acquire Astros outfielder Kyler Tucker. However, due to the teams frequently facing each other in the playoffs, it was difficult for the two sides to reach an agreement and Tucker ended up being traded to the Chicago Cubs. Upon arrival in Chicago, Tucker was the 4th starting caliber outfielder on the Cubs, which meant that the Cubs would look to ship off one of their outfielders. In accordance, only four days after acquiring Tucker, the Cubs sent Cody Bellinger and 5 million dollars, to the Yankees. In exchange for the left-handed outfielder, the Yankees sent Cody Poteet, a right-handed pitcher to the Cubs. 

Next season, the Mets will pay Juan Soto 52 million dollars. Meanwhile, the Yankees added three All-Stars, and their combined 2025 salary will be 45.4 million dollars. However, spring training begins in 8 weeks and the Yankees still need to figure out who will be playing the right side of the infield. In addition, the question remains: Would the Yankees be better off with Juan Soto instead of Fried, Williams, and Bellinger?


Replacements or Soto?:

It’s worth noting that due to Williams’ low salary, it’s very likely that the Yankees would’ve traded for him regardless of losing Soto. On the other hand, there’s no reality in which the Yankees could’ve afforded to sign both Juan Soto and Max Fried. Max Fried is a huge addition regarding the Yankees’ hopes of returning to the World Series. As I’ve mentioned in many of my articles, two dominant starting pitchers can be enough to win multiple playoff series. For example, Montgomery and Eovaldi on the 2023 Rangers or Scherzer and Strasburg on the 2019 Nationals. Paring Max Fried with Gerrit Cole gives the Yankees two of the top starting pitchers in the game. Cole was phenomenal during the Yankees 2024 World Series run. However, outside of Cole, the Yankees’ starters were inconsistent, and only made it through 4 innings on average. In 2024, Fried pitched over 4 innings in 27 out of 29 starts. Max Fried is the exact opposite of New York’s rotation, he’s reliable and works deep into games. Over the past four years, Fried has an ERA of 2.86 and his average start lasts 6 innings. By paring Cole with Fried and Devin Williams with last year’s closer, Luke Weaver, the Yankees have created a playoff pitching juggernaut. New York can pitch two full games without using more than the four mentioned pitchers. The Yankees plan to immediately depress the offense of playoff opponents, the same way the Astros did to them in the 2022 ALCS. The Yankees scored 2 earned runs over the first two games of the series. By the time they got to game 3, they were already discouraged and broken. The Yankees want Cole, Fried, Williams, and Weaver to do the same to their opponents. 

However, it takes two to tango, pitching and hitting. In 2024, out of the Yankees' 782 earned runs, 253 were driven in by Judge and Soto. In Aaron Judge’s lone season hitting aside Juan Soto, Judge set new career bests in batting average, RBIs, OPS, OBP, slugging, and more. In Juan Soto’s lone season hitting aside Aaron Judge, Soto set new bests in home runs, base hits, runs scored, and more. Judge and Soto made each other better because their weaknesses are opposites. Last season, Judge’s OPS was .108 lower against righties and he swung and missed 17.7% more on breaking pitches than fastballs. Hence, opponents want to face Judge with right-handed pitchers who rely on their breaking pitches. However, last season, Soto’s OPS was .033 higher against righties and he was in the 98th percentile in chase rate. Hence, opponents want to avoid facing Soto with right-handed pitchers who rely on their breaking pitches. Putting Judge and Soto next to each other doesn’t allow teams to attack their weaknesses. Therefore, to properly replace Soto, the Yankees need to surround Judge with hitters who do well against righties and breaking pitches. By acquiring Cody Bellinger, the Yankees covered one out of the two. The left-handed swinging Bellinger does post a better OPS against right-handed pitchers, but he swings and misses 10.8% more on breaking pitches than fastballs. If the Yankees want Judge to produce the same way he did in 2024, they need to add another bat. Especially now that they traded Durbin, who would’ve started at second base, they need to add a second baseman and a first baseman. 


Finish the Job:

There are two players remaining in the free agent market who would complete the Yankees lineup, Christian Walker and Alex Bregman. Walker plays first base, and Jazz Chisholm can move back to second base to have Bregman man third. In 2024, despite being right-handed, Walker launched 22 home runs off of righties and his OPS was .066 higher against them. In addition, in recent years, the Yankees have struggled with infield defense. Walker has won a Gold Glove in each of the past three seasons and would be the perfect leader for the sloppy New York infield. Bregman is an incredible breaking ball hitter and is in the 98th percentile in whiff rate. Much like Walker, Bregman is an incredible fielder and won a gold glove in 2024. Bregman is coming off of a down year, making now is the perfect time to sign him while his stock is low. Since Bregman is only 30 years old, I doubt his dip in production in 2024 was anything but a fluke and he’ll surely be back to his old self. The Yankees can put Bregman in front of Judge and Walker behind him, with Chisholm before Bregman and Bellinger behind Walker. 

However, signing players is easier said than done. Yankees’ owner, Hal Steinbrenner has been very clear that he doesn’t intend on entering the 60% surcharge luxury tax tier. With their payroll 24 million dollars over the CBT, the Yankees are currently in the 12% surcharge tier. The 42% surcharge tier begins at 40 million over the CBT and the 60% surcharge tier begins at 60 million over the CBT. I expect Steinbrenner to be willing to go into the 42% tier, but not the 60% tier. This gives New York up to 36 million to offer Walker and Bregman. Walker is expected to land a deal 3 or 4 years long and in the vicinity of 20 million dollars per year. Bregman is expected to land a deal 6 to 8 years long and in the vicinity of 25 million dollars per year. Those deals together with the preexisting Yankees’ 24 million dollars over the CBT would accumulate to approximately 70 million dollars over the CBT. That would put them 10 million dollars into the 60% surcharge tier. The Yankees have four options: 1. They can bite the bullet and dish out the money. 2. They can settle with only one out of the two free agents. 3. They can give Walker and Bregman deals that are longer than recommended with lower annual values. 4. They can part ways with a few players to take over 10 million dollars off their payroll. Based on Brian Cashman’s 26-year track record as a general manager, he’s most likely to choose option 2 or 3. Nonetheless, if the Yankees do find a way to land both Walker and Bregman, losing Soto will be the best thing that happened to the Yanks since Jeter.


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