After the Chicago Bears’ comedic and embarrassing loss on Thanksgiving, they had finally seen enough and fired Matt Eberflus. Now at 4W-8L, the Bears are pretty much out of playoff contention and have many questions to answer. What’s next for the Bears? Are the Bears salvageable? If so, what do they need to do to salvage their team?
The Blueprint to Building an Offense:
If we look at the different teams that have recently rebuilt their offenses, we will find that some were successful and others weren’t. Upon further examination, we should notice a common dominator between all successful rebuilds and an opposite common denominator between all the unsuccessful rebuilds. These common denominators are the order in which the teams assembled their offenses.
An offense is built of many moving parts. I broke it up into five roles: a play-caller, a quarterback, pass catchers, running backs, and blockers. You may think that the way to build an offense would be to throw together as much talent as possible, but that’s not necessarily accurate. Some roles are essential for the basic function of the offense, and some roles will only improve an already functioning offense. An offense cannot function without the right play-caller and functional blocking. For example, it doesn’t matter how good the quarterback or pass catchers are if the quarterback can’t get a pass off before being sacked, and it doesn’t matter how good a running back is if there are no gaps to run through. On the other hand, poor pass catchers and running backs can be carried by elaborate play-calling and good blocking. For example, even if the pass catchers and runners aren’t great, a play-caller can scheme them open, and good blocking can open large gaps for a back or give the pass catchers more time to get open. Quarterbacks are between the two groups. On one hand, they’re dependent on quality play calling and minimal blocking, on the other, an offense can’t function without competence from their signal caller.
The best examples are the Steelers, Broncos, and Jets. I’ll briefly go through their rebuilds and their results. In 2023, the Steelers ranked 28th in the NFL in points scored. They addressed this by hiring a proven play-caller, Arthur Smith, parting ways with two of their top receivers, and bringing in two new starters on the offensive line. Afterward, they signed a new quarterback, Russell Wilson. So far, in 2024, the Steelers are 10th in the NFL in points scored and have seen an increase of 6.8 points per game. In 2022, the Broncos ranked dead last in the NFL in points scored. They addressed that by hiring a proven play-caller, Sean Payton, and signing two new starters on the offensive line. They instantly saw results in 2023, improving to 19th in points scored with an increase of 4.1 points per game. After 2024, they transitioned at quarterback from Russell Wilson to Bo Nix. Wilson was a safer play but the Broncos believed that Nix complimented Payton’s play-calling style. In addition, they made another few changes on the offensive line. So far, in 2024, the Broncos are 13th in the NFL in points scored and are scoring 6.6 points per game more than in 2022. However, the Jets chose a different course of action. In 2022, the Jets ranked 29th in the NFL in points scored. They addressed that by trading for Aaron Rodgers, hiring an inconsistent play-caller, Nathaniel Hackett, replacing 3 out of their top 4 receivers, and signing Dalvin Cook. Unfortunately, Rodgers missed the entirety of the 2023 season with an injury. As a result, the Jets’ offense ranked 29th in points scored for a second consecutive season. They addressed that by acquiring Mike Williams and drafting a wide receiver and two running backs. Nonetheless, through their first 6 games of 2024, they only put up 18.83 points per game. New York tried to fix that by trading for Davante Adams. However, since acquiring Adams, the Jets have seen a decrease of 0.2 points per game. Since 2022, the Jets have made a handful of different moves but have only seen an increase of 1.4 points per game. The lesson we take from the Jets is that adding a quarterback, pass catchers, and running backs, to a dysfunctional offense won’t make the offense functional.
Applying the Blueprint to the Bears:
In 2022, on their way to having the worst record in the NFL, the Bears offense put up 19.2 points per game, 23rd in the NFL. They addressed that by acquiring two receivers, DJ Moore and Chase Claypool, signing a guard, Nate Davis, and drafting a tackle, Darnell Wright. Since they added two linemen, they did see some improvement. In 2023, Chicago ranked 18th in points scored with an increase of 2 in points per game. Nonetheless, they still needed to fix a lot on the offensive side of the ball. They attempted to do so by hiring a new play called, Shane Waldron, acquiring two pass catchers, Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett, signing a running back, D’Andre Swift, drafting Caleb Williams, and drafting another pass catcher, Rome Odunze. I didn’t like this series of moves for two reasons. The first was that Waldron had a bad resume and odd hire. The second was that after allowing the 5th-most sacks in the NFL in 2023, Chicago addressed every position but their offensive line.
In accordance, to no surprise, Chicago’s moves haven’t produced positive results. Through 12 games in 2024, the Bears’ offense has dropped back down to 23rd in points scored and is seeing a decrease of 1.1 points per game. This is because they don’t have the proper play-calling to take advantage of all of their incredible pass-catchers, and their offensive line is ranked 21st in the NFL (per PFN). As a result, Caleb Williams has been sacked more than any other quarterback this season, and their run game is ranked 21st in yards per attempt. After 9 games, they replaced Shane Waldron with Thomas Brown, who does have a slightly better resume. 3 games later, they fired Matt Eberflus and made Brown the interim head coach. That brings us to today, the Bears are currently 4W-8L and in the midst of a 6-game losing streak. Where can they go from here?
Despite their struggles, I believe that the Bears aren’t too far off. I like Thomas Brown as their offensive coordinator of the future. Brown was an assistant coach to Sean McVay, the offensive mastermind, for three years and was part of their 2021 Super Bowl Championship. However, I don’t see him fit to be a head coach yet because he was the coordinator of the Panthers’ historically bad 2023 offense. Chicago will have some cap space this offseason and will likely be able to make one addition to their offensive line in free agency. In addition, they will likely have an early first-round draft pick, which they should use on an offensive lineman. Between Brown calling plays and two upgrades to their offensive line, they should be somewhat functional. Once their offense becomes functional, Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, and company will be able to do what they do and Chicago’s offense can become the explosive offense they were expected to be. In addition, they’re going to need to find a head coach. I hear that guy Bill Belichick is pretty good. If the Bears follow the blueprint that teams such as the Broncos, Steelers, and Chargers have laid out this season, in the blink of an eye, they can become one of the top offenses in the NFL.
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