FAMOUS JAMEIS:
In 2019, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback, Jameis Winston, was playing in the final year of his rookie contract. Tampa Bay was expected to sign Winston to a long-term deal, but Winston declined their offers. When asked about it, Winston said he wanted 30 million dollars a year and gave us a classic Jameis quote: “You look at my numbers, I’m balling”. It was a laughable request and the quote became a joke. In a sense, Jamies was balling. In the 2019 season, Jameis put up 33 touchdowns and 335 total yards per game. However, he also threw 30 interceptions, balancing out his passer rating down to 84.3. It’s also worth noting that his winning percentage through 2019 was only 40%. Winston ended up signing a 1-year 1.1-million-dollar deal to become the backup quarterback of the Saints.
OUT OF PROPORTION:
In 2019, the NFL salary cap was 188.2 million dollars, making Winston’s request 16 percent of Tampa’s cap space. Based on the fact that Jameis’s passer rating on his rookie contract was 86.9, and his request of 16 percent of the salary cap was laughed at and dismissed, we can understand that it’s crazy to give a quarterback with that type of production a contract of 16 percent or more. Since the salary cap has moved up to 255.4 million, 16 percent today would be 40.86 million dollars. Throughout the first 3 seasons of his career, Trevor Lawrence has put up an 85.0 passer rating and won 40% of the games he’s started. A very similar line to Jameis Winston. Hence, it would be crazy to give him a contract worth 16% (40.86 million dollars) or more of the Jaguars’ cap space, right? Wrong! Last week the Jaguars signed Trevor Lawrence to a 5-year 275-million-dollar contract extension. 275 million dollars over 5 years is 55 million per year. 55 million dollars is 21.5% of Jacksonville’s cap space. I’m aware that the quarterback market has changed over the past 5 years, but how did we get this far? Trevor Lawrence isn’t a top-16 quarterback in the NFL, making him a below-average starter, how is he worth 21.5% of a team’s cap space?
OTHER DIRECTIONS:
Two questions are asked here: 1. Would the Jaguars be better off finding a replacement and using the money they saved to build up the supporting cast? 2. Could the Jaguars have gotten Trevor Lawrence to resign with them for less?
Would they be better off without him?:
Replacing Trevor Lawrence wouldn’t be easy. Since all 6 of the potential starting quarterback prospects were off the board well before the Jaguars pick, Jacksonville would have to replace Lawrence either in the next draft or via free agency. While it is early, as of June, it looks like the 2025 NFL draft will have plenty of talent at the quarterback position. Carson Beck, Jaxon Dart, Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers, Drew Allar, and Donovan Smith are all potential first-round picks. Even after they secured Lawrence, I won’t be surprised if Jacksonville picks up one of these guys if the 2024 season doesn’t go as planned. While drafting a quarterback in the first round is a 50-50 shot, it might be smarter than financially handcuffing your franchise for half a decade. For example, the Denver Broncos handed Russell Wilson a 5-year 242-million-dollar deal. It ended up forcing them to part ways with Justin Simmons and Jerry Juedy, two of their best players.
If the Jaguars were scared of spending a high draft pick on a quarterback they could’ve replaced Lawrence via free agency. Next offseason, there will be several decent quarterbacks in the free agent pool. Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jordan Love are the top guys, they’re all better than Lawrence, and none of their teams have the cap space to give them 55 million dollars. The Jaguars probably could’ve replaced Lawrence (85.0 passer rating), with Prescott (99.0 passer rating), Tagovailoa (97.1 passer rating), or Love (94.0 passer rating). In the unlikely scenario that the Jaguars get outbidden for all three, they could go with one of the second-tier guys in the 2025 free agent pool. The second tier consists of multiple quarterbacks who have a lot of talent and potential, but never got a fair chance with a legit supporting cast. The three names in this tier that stick out are Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Sam Darnold. Lance and Darnold were both highly praised by the 49ers coaching staff but never got to start consistently because of the emergence of Brock Purdy. Both are young guys who could be signed to short-term deals for dirt cheap. While Jacksonville could’ve signed Darnold for approximately 50 million dollars less than Lawrence, Darnold’s career passer rating of 78.3 and winning percentage of 37.5 aren’t much worse than Lawrence’s 85.0 and 40%. With the 50 million dollars the Jaguars would’ve saved if they had gone with one of these guys instead of with Lawrence, they could’ve built a super team. According to previous AAVs, in the 2025 offseason, 50 million dollars can get you Tee Higgins (Previous AAV: 21 million dollars), Zack Martin (Previous AAV: 18 million dollars), and DJ Reed (Previous AAV: 11 million dollars). Since Jacksonville’s current WR1 is Christian Kirk, their current CB1 is Ronald Darby, and despite having Travis Etienne, they ranked 24th in rushing yards in 2023, they can really use all three of the players I mentioned. If Jacksonville felt that relying on one of the second-tier quarterbacks was too risky, they could sign a veteran third-tier guy as plan B. In the latter half of 2023, Joe Flacco and the Browns showed us what a veteran game manager can do with an elite roster. Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Jarrett Stidham, and Joe Flacco will all be available in 2025.
Could the Jaguars have brought back Lawrence for less?
Since I was not in the room, and I don’t know how the negotiations went down, I can’t know for sure. However, I know how I would’ve approached the negotiations. I would’ve lowballed Lawrence and he would have rejected the initial offer. Then I would show him and his agent the information I showed you in the answer to question 1. Now that Lawrence knows that he’s replaceable, I would up my offer to between 40 and 45 million dollars. It’s important to make sure he knows that I’m offering more than I should exclusively because of the small hope that he still has a chance of becoming the superstar he was drafted to be. I would also remind him that if he rejects the offer, he’ll probably follow in Jamies Winston’s footsteps to becoming a career backup. In conclusion, I believe that if the Jaguars made Lawrence feel expendable they easily could have signed him for less money.
CONSEQUENCES;
Due to the huge cap hit of Trevor Lawrence’s new contract, it’s unlikely that Jacksonville will be able to make any big swings in the upcoming off-season. Hence, their current roster is what they’ll be working with for the foreseeable future. With that said, let’s take a look at how it matches up with their competition:
The Jaguars went 9W-8L in 2023 and missed the playoffs. Since Lawrence was battling through an injury in the latter half of the season, they were probably better than what their record suggests. However, injuries are part of the game and there is no guarantee that he won’t have injury issues again. In accordance, I don’t think it’s that much of a factor going forward. The only big improvements the Jaguars made to their team were signing Arik Armstead to a 3-year 43-million-dollar deal, and drafting Brian Thomas. Between Lawrence potentially being healthy and these two additions, will that be enough to propel the Jaguars into the playoffs?
The AFC South will be loaded next season. The Texans won the division in 2023, then got much better over the offseason, and are expected to be Super Bowl contenders in 2024. In my opinion, the Houston Texans are a lock to win the AFC South again this upcoming season. The Colts and Titans aren’t bottom-feeders either. The Colts have a great roster, to the point that they were able to go 9W-8L under Gardner Minshew in 2023. In addition, the Colts had a great draft, adding factors such as Laiatu Latu and Adonai Mitchell. Before getting hurt last season, Anthony Richardson showed us that when he’s on the field he’s electric. If he can stay healthy next year, Indianapolis will be a problem for Jacksonville. In case he does go down again, the Colts have a mean man named Joe Flacco ready to come off the bench. We all saw in 2023 that Joe Flacco still has gas in the tank. Meanwhile, the Titans are in a similar situation to the Colts. They’ve assembled a very decent roster, with stars such as Deandre Hopkins, Tony Pollard, and Jeffery Simmons. Their young quarterback, Will Levis showed some flashes of potential in 2023. If Levis can take a step in the right direction in 2023, the Titans will be a better team than the Jaguars. Between the Colts and the Titans, one of the two will probably hit their potential. It’s not like the Jaguars can slip into one of the lower wildcard spots, because the AFC is going to be a gauntlet in 2024. The Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, and Chiefs are all in other AFC divisions and will be better than the Jaguars.
In total, the Jaguars probably have somewhere from the 8th-best to 11th-best roster in the AFC. By signing Trevor Lawrence to this monster deal, the Jaguars have handcuffed themselves. Their only method of improvement will be via the draft. It’s known that draft picks often take some time to develop and occasionally completely miss. Hence, I doubt the Jaguars will make the playoffs more than once or twice during Lawrence’s new contract. Even when they make the playoffs, it’ll most likely be a one-and-done situation (unless they face the Chargers). While moving off of Lawrence would have sent them into uncharted territories, I believe they would’ve ended up with a better roster in 4 out of 5 scenarios. This article isn’t exclusively to hate on Lawrence and the Jaguars. The bottom line is that excluding top-5 quarterbacks who instantly make their teams Super Bowl contenders, there’s no reason to give a quarterback north of 45 million dollars a year.
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