NBA FINALS VS STANLEY CUP FINALS:
Earlier this month, the Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals. I’m a huge football fan and an even bigger baseball fan. However, I don’t follow basketball as intensely. Therefore, I wasn’t too surprised when I couldn’t bring myself to care about the NBA Finals. I struggled to watch the game recaps, but I assumed it was simply because I’m not such an intense NBA fan. Immediately after the NBA finals, the Stanley Cup Finals occurred. Since I follow hockey even less than basketball, I didn’t expect to be drawn to the Stanley Cup Finals. Nevertheless, the Stanley Cup Finals were unbelievable and I found them super exciting. If your team wasn’t in the NBA Finals, it was hard to watch. But, even people who don’t follow hockey found the Stanley Cup Finals entertaining. With that being the case, is there an issue with the NBA Finals?
LIGHTNING IN A BOTTLE:
Over the last years worth of American sports, I’d rank the 2024 NBA Finals as the 7th most entertaining championship. The 6 I’d put above are the World Series, the Super Bowl, the Stanley Cup Finals, the College Football National Championship game, the College World Series Finals, and the March Madness Championship game. While only between 1 and 3 of these leagues are more entertaining than the NBA, all 6 had better finalies. This isn’t a one-time occurrence, the 2023 NBA Finals weren’t competitive either. The only people that got into it were the fans of the teams playing. On the other hand, not a single one of my favorite teams qualified for any of the 6 championships mentioned above, but they were still great.
I believe that I speak for all sports fans when I say that one of, if not the best parts of playoff/championship games is the “Lightning in a Bottle” moments. The human brain naturally makes predictions based on the information it has received. Every spectator consciously or subconsciously has some type of expectation of how the events will transpire and how the game will turn out. The “Lightning in a Bottle” moments are when in a matter of seconds, your expectations are flipped on their head and everything changes. For example, Corey Seager’s homerun in game 1 of the 2023 World Series. In less than 4 seconds, the Texas Rangers’ winning expectations jumped from 11% to 58%. The crowd went wild, the commentators lost their minds, and Corey Seager, like a little girl, jumped and screamed out of excitement. Not only are these moments exhilarating, but they also add to the rest of the game. The entire season comes down to these games, months of anticipation, and hard work. Hence, when we know that one of these moments can potentially take place at any time and completely change the outcome of the entire season, we’re locked in with suspense the entire time. These are the moments we play and watch for. These are the moments that make sports sports.
All 6 of the championships I mentioned above had their “Lightning in a Bottle” moment. As I already mentioned, the World Series had Seager’s home run. The Super Bowl had Mecole Hardman’s walk-off touchdown in overtime. The Stanley Cup Finals had so many, but if I have to choose one, I’ll go with Sam Reinhart’s go-ahead score in the Panther’s 2-1 victory in game 7. The College Football National Championship game had Blake Corum’s 12-yard touchdown in the 4th quarter. The March Madness Championship game had UConn’s 9-2 run to start the second half. The College World Series Finals had Christian Moore’s leadoff home run to start the winner-takes-all game 3. These were only examples, each finale had multiple other moments, if I had the time I could list dozens. However, regarding the NBA Finals, I can’t think of any specific moment.
LACK OF LIGHTNING:
As I noted above, the NBA Finals were the only finale that didn’t have a signature “Lightning in a Bottle” moment. Now the question is why not? I’ve thought about it and here’s the explanation I’ve come up with:
What makes these moments so exciting is the way they completely change one’s expectations of the results of the game. Per my example of Corey Seager’s homerun, the expected outcome was changed by 47% in less than 4 seconds. Since the winner of game 1 wins the World Series 64% of the time, the outcome of the Rangers’ entire season, months of anticipation, and hard work, was changed by 30% (0.47 times 0.64 equals 0.3) in under 4 seconds.
The issue is that this will very rarely happen in basketball. Each possession is limited to 3 points, and on rare occasions 4. This is only a small problem in March Madness because each game is win-or-go-home. On the contrary, in the NBA Finals, each win is worth only a quarter of a championship. In total, 1,004 points were scored in the NBA Finals this year. In accordance, the outcome of the series can only be changed by less than 0.4% on each possession. The only time the series can be greatly impacted is the final couple of minutes of a close game. Unfortunately, slightly less than half of NBA games are close games down to the finals moments. The biggest possible momentum swing is a steal or block that is followed by a transition 3. That play can impact the game by up to 6 or 7 points, and the closest game of this year's finals was decided by 7 points. At no point was there a possibility of the expected outcome being flipped. Hence, there were almost 0 opportunities for “Lightning in a Bottle” moments in the NBA Finals. This caused the series to lack electricity and suspense. As a result, the NBA Finals were missing two key factors that every other championship has. Any championship is intense if your team is in it. For example, my friends who root for the Patriots loved the famously boring 13-3 Super Bowl LIII. However, I feel that the championship of a major sports league, the season finale, should be appealing to more than a fraction of the fan base.
I was able to find the issue, but I don’t know what the solution is. The NBA Finals haven’t been nearly as exciting as they could be, and it’s a shame. If you have any ideas, feel free to contact me via our comment section or on Instagram (@thepitchsw)!
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