The Moneys on Houston:
Following CJ Stroud’s phenomenal rookie season, the Houston Texans are heavy favorites to win the AFC South. FanDuel sports books have the Texans as +105 favorites to win the division. While the Texans certainly have an impressive roster, I believe one other team is overlooked. This team, specifically their explosive offense, has the potential to give the Texans a real run for their money.
The Overlooked Offense:
At the end of the 2023 season, the AFC South standing was as so: 1) HOU 10W-7L T2) JAX 9W-8L T2) IND 9W-8L 4)TEN 6W-11L.
2023 Indianapolis Colts:
The team I’d like to focus on is the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts lost their rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, to a season-ending injury in week 5. The backup quarterback who stepped in was Gardner Minshew. Minshew’s season wasn’t impressive, he only completed 62% of his passes, had a 15-9 touchdown-interception ratio, put up an 84.6 passer rating, and didn’t add much in the run game. Nevertheless, the Colts came within one win of making the playoffs and scored 396 points, the 10th most in the NFL. How did the Colts’ offense find success with poor quarterback play? To find the answer let’s look through everyone who played a role in their offense last year:
Offensive Line:
The Colts’ offensive line was led by two multi-time Pro Bowlers, Ryan Kelly (4 selections) and Quenton Nelson (6 selections). On the edges, they had two great offensive tackles in Braden Smith and the impressive rookie, Bernhard Raimann. Their Right Guard, Will Fries, was the only weak point on Indianapolis’s offensive front. However, Fries is a young 25-year-old player who will improve with experience. All 5 starters are returning for the 2024 season. Entering the season, Pro Football Focus has the Colts’ unit as the 3rd-best offensive line in the NFL.
Weapons:
Despite missing 7 games, Jonathan Taylor led the Colts in scrimmage touchdowns last season. Over the last few years, the Colts’ most productive offensive player has been Taylor. Taylor is one of the top running backs in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2020, Taylor has averaged 104.4 scrimmage yards and 0.83 scrimmage touchdowns per game. The presence of Jonathan Taylor forces opposing defenses to put extra tacklers in the box, which makes life easy for the Colts’ receivers. Michal Pittman Jr. has emerged as one of the top receivers in the NFL, eclipsing 1,000 yards in two of his last three seasons. To the side of Pittman, Josh Downs put up an impressive rookie season in 2023. Downs put up 771 yards on under 100 targets last year, leaving us wondering what he’ll be able to do when he’s targeted more frequently in 2024.
Pittman and Downs were a great 1-2-punch in 2023 but Indianapolis wasn’t satisfied. In the second round of the NFL Draft, they selected Adonai Mitchell out of Texas. Even though the Longhorns had many options on their offense, Xavier Worthy, Jonathan Brooks, CJ Baxter, and Ja’Tavion Sanders, Mitchell managed to lead the team in scrimmage touchdowns, with 11. Adonai Mitchell is great at doing a lot with a little and is a threat in the red zone, making him the perfect fit at WR3 for the Colts. Their weapons were good in 2023, and in 2024 they’ll be even better.
Shane Steichen:
In 4 years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, split between the Rams and the Eagles, Shane Steichen’s offense finished top-10 in yards 3 times. In 2022, Steichen had an Eagles team with a mobile but inaccurate quarterback, a top-tier offensive line, and explosiveness in the receiving core. Steichen led that offense to a top-3 finish in terms of both yards and points and a Super Bowl appearance. Following that season, Chris Ballard and the Colts handed Steichen the keys to their team and attempted to assemble a parallel offense. They already had a great offensive line and Michal Pittman. Then, they went out and drafted a mobile quarterback with a bit of an accuracy issue, Anthony Richardson, and a second explosive receiver, Josh Downs. Through the first 5 games, it was all coming together perfectly, as the Colts put up 24 points per game. Unfortunately in week 5, Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending injury. Even with Minshew at quarterback, Steichen led the Colts to 9 wins and a top-10 offense. If Richardson is healthy this season, Steichen will have his parallel offense. Anthony Richardson seems to have been forgotten. Only a year ago he was drafted with the 4th pick of the draft. While Richardson needs some polishing, his athletic ability compares to Cam Newton. In his finals season in the SEC, with the Florida Gators, Richardson put over 650 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. There’s no doubt in my mind that Shane Steichen will get great production out of Richardson. CJ Stroud, DeMeco Ryans, and the Texans are good, but Shane Steichen, Anthony Richardson, and the Colts are going to be a problem.
Money on the Colts:
With all that said, nothing is guaranteed. Anthony Richardson’s pro comparison was Cam Newton. In the same way, Cam’s physical style led to injuries that derailed his career, Richardson’s physical style led to an injury that derailed his rookie season. There’s no guarantee that the Colts’ quarterback will stay on the field in 2024 and the offense is reliant on the quarterback. FanDuel sports books have the Colts’ odds at +310 to win the division. Behind the Texans at +105 and the Jaguars at +270. If Richardson is leading Steichen’s offense, the Colts will be much better than the Jaguars, and just as good as the Texans. Due to Richardson’s physical style, avoid placing a large amount of money on the Colts. Nonetheless, this can be a great way to turn 10 dollars into 41.
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