A few days ago, Juan Soto hit his first-ever home run in T-Mobile Park in Seattle. After going deep in Seattle, Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of the 30 MLB stadiums. When asked about it after the game, Soto chuckled and said it is the “best way to go into free agency”. The quote went viral and the public accused Soto of having one foot out the door, even though his most important baseball of 2024 is yet to be played. This outrage shows me that the average baseball fan doesn’t understand the situation. Soto’s play with the Yankees in 2024 and his free agency are unaffiliated. That is because of the 3 factors at play this offseason:
1. Juan Soto’s Background:
At the young age of 25, Juan Soto already has an impressive resume. He has been in the major leagues for already 7 seasons, has been to 4 All-Star games, won a Home Run Derby, won a batting title, won 4 Silver Slugger Awards, hit 200 home runs, driven in 587 runs, and won a World Series. In 2024, Soto’s proven that he can handle pressure by playing his best baseball under the bright lights of New York. In addition, Soto is still in his mid-20s and has approximately 10 years left to his prime. This combination of youth and accomplishments makes Soto the 2nd-most valuable player to ever hit the market, behind only Shohei Ohtani. Hence, Soto is expected to get paid almost as much as Ohtani.
However, in an article from July (Click Here) I explained that Ohtani’s contract isn’t actually worth 70 million dollars a year. Out of the 700 million dollars over 10 years, Ohtani deferred 680 million dollars by 10 years. Based on the past 40 years of inflation, the dollar should lose between 21% and 29% of its value over the deferral period. As a result, Ohtani’s contract will be worth between 50.3 million and 55.7 million dollars a year. In accordance, Soto will probably receive between 45 million and 50 million dollars per year. If you hear someone say Soto will get north of 60 million, tell them they’re wrong.
Scott Boras’s Background:
Yankees’ star, Juan Soto, is a client of Scott Boras. Over the past two decades, agent Scott Boras has become known as the best negotiator in all of sports. Boras has negotiated many record-setting deals, such as Alex Rodriguez’s 252-million-dollar deal with the Texas Rangers and Gerrit Cole’s 324-million-dollar deal with the New York Yankees. He relies on a simple strategy and 9 times out of 10, he gets much more money than what was initially on the table. Boras’s strategy is to wait as long as possible, teams will eventually break. Whether it’s due to losing a bidding war for a different free agent or a rival adding talent, teams eventually get desperate and give in to Boras’s high demands. Hence, Soto won’t immediately resign with the Yankees, and it has nothing to do with his level of commitment.
Initially, the fact that Boras is Soto’s agent, terrified fans. However, in the 2023/2024 offseason, everything changed. Scott Boras got rocked. Early in the offseason, he had a number of his clients decline large contracts, but they never got better offers. Boras’s strategy ended up costing Matt Chapman approximately 26 million dollars, Blake Snell approximately 15 million, and many more players suffered. Recently, former Boras client, Jordan Montgomery, who signed a 1-year 25-million-dollar deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, spoke out. Montgomery hinted that he could’ve signed a better contract with the Boston Red Sox and had the following to say about his previous agent: “Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason”.
In the upcoming offseason, headlined by Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, several talented Boras clients will become free agents. The disaster that was Boras’s previous offseason will likely raise concern among his clients, encouraging them to shorten his leash. Boras’s willingness to wait longer than the teams is what makes him the great agent he is. Hence, if his leash is shortened, he won’t be nearly as difficult to negotiate with, which should favor the Yankees. If bringing back Soto means handling Scott Boras, this is the best year to do it.
The Yankees’ Background:
On multiple occasions, Yankees owner, Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear that he doesn’t want his team’s payroll to consistently be above 300 million dollars. He most recently expressed himself at the MLB's owners' meetings in May: “ I always say to you guys like a broken record: I don't believe I should have to have a $300 million payroll to win a championship”. In 2024, the Yankees payroll is 308.6 million dollars. However, a lot is going to change.
In the 2023/2024 offseason, the Yankees were expected to add a talented starting pitcher to go behind Gerrit Cole at the top of their rotation. They had two great opportunities, with Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto right in front of them. Nonetheless, Cashman and Steinbrenner weren’t willing to offer above 25 million dollars per year. Snell went to the Giants for 31 million dollars per year, Yamamoto went to the Dodgers for 27 million dollars per year, and the Yankees were left with nobody. They refused to up their offer because they knew that they had to save up for the 2024/2025 offseason, which likely will be their most pivotal offseason of the 2020s.
Over the past two months, the Yankees lineup has come together beautifully. The acquisition of Jazz Chisholm is working well, Stanton has hit well since returning from the IL, Gleyber Torres has woken up, calling up Jasson Dominguez has lived up to the hype, and most importantly, the combination of Soto and Judge has been unstoppable. Between their current success, and Spencer Jones crushing baseball in AA, the Yankees should have a great lineup for years to come. However, the rotation has been inconsistent, and aside from Cole, the postseason rotation is unclear. Hence, losing Soto and Cole this offseason would destroy the Yankees. Unfortunately, that’s a very real possibility. We already know that Boras will have Soto wait as long as possible. In addition, Gerrit Cole is also a Scott Boras client. At the end of the current season, Gerrit Cole can opt out of the remaining four years of his 9-year 324-million-dollar deal. However, if he opts out, the Yankees can force him back in by adding a 10th year, worth 36 million dollars to the end of his deal. Considering that Cole has had an injury-plagued season and that Scott Boras struggled last offseason, I don’t think it would be wise for Cole to opt-out. Nonetheless, due to the fact that since Cole signed his 9-year deal the dollar has lost 19% of its value, Cole may want to reset his contract. In Coles’ hypothetical 10th season of his deal, he would be 39 years old. If he opts out, I doubt the Yankees will choose to pay a 39-year-old pitcher 36 million dollars.
With all this said, the Yankees may bring back Soto and Cole and start a dynasty, and they also might fall apart. For now, let’s focus on the Yankees’ upcoming run at their 28th title. Regarding their future, only time will tell.
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