With the MLB playoffs rapidly approaching, many fans can’t wait to watch their team play in October. However, while 19 teams are within 5 games of a playoff spot, only 12 fan bases will be privileged to watch their team play postseason baseball. Here are a few of the most intense playoff races to watch as the season winds down:
AL Central: Guardians, Twins, & Royals.
On August 18th, the Cleveland Guardians hold a 1.5-game lead in the American League Central. The Twins and Royals are 1.5 and 3 games behind and can smell blood in the water. After getting off to a 36W-17L start to the season, the Guardians have gone 36W-34L over the last three months. Much like Cleveland, the Royals started hot and then played sub-.500 baseball over their most recent 70 games. Seth Lugo looked like a Cy Young candidate before falling off in June and July. I doubt the Royals will steal the AL Central. On the contrary, during their most recent 70 games, the Twins are 41W-29L. The Twins have slowly but surely gained ground on the Guardians and are now within striking distance. The question is if Cleveland’s early success was a fluke or if the fluke is the recent struggle. Cleveland is expecting to get Triston McKenzie back from the IL in the upcoming weeks. McKenzie has been great at times, he posted a 2.96 ERA in 2022. However, he has also been horrible at times and altogether has a career ERA of 3.98. In my opinion, McKenzie will be the X-factor. His return will either give the Guardians the jolt they need to seal the deal or if he returns and the Guardians don’t get the jolt they were relying on, the Guardians will be demoralized and the Twins will slip away with the division title.
NL West: Dodgers, Padres, & Diamondbacks.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently hanging onto a 2.5-game lead in the National League West. The Dodgers thought that they had built a superteam this past offseason and expected to win the division with ease. Unfortunately, the injury bug put a wrench in their plans. Almost every single Dodger star spent a significant amount of time on the shelf this season. The top names that are currently on the list are Tyler Glasnow, Max Muncy, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Meanwhile, the Padres have roared out of nowhere to become one of the most fun teams in the MLB. Led by Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar, the Padres are 32W-14L in the past month and a half. However, they keep on winning close games and I’m not convinced that this is attainable. The two key factors will be how well the Dodgers’ stars do coming off the IL, and if the Padres can continue winning every tight game. The Arizona Diamondbacks must also be discussed. While they are 4 games back on the Dodgers, they’re still a threat. Nevertheless, I believe that they’re only a threat in the playoffs. They have a great front 4 in their rotation of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, and Brandon Pfaadt. Last October, those 4 were the reason that we saw two wildcard teams face off in the World Series. However, if Yamamoto and Glasnow are right, the Dodgers 4 of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Stone, and Buehler will outduel them. While it’s a bit boring, I expect the Dodgers to take care of business.
NL Wildcard: Braves & Mets.
Entering the season, the Braves were my pick to win it all. However, when Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider went down with season-ending injuries, they fell apart. It’s impressive that even without their two top guys, they’re still holding on to the 3rd wildcard spot in the NL. However, the Mets are only 1.5 games behind Atlanta and can swipe that spot at any moment. Nonetheless, the Mets are also collapsing. The Mets weren’t expected to be a playoff team this year. That was until they got hot in June and went 21W-8L between June 12th and the break. Unfortunately, while that was enough to prevent them from throwing in the towel at the trade deadline, their hot streak was only a fluke. The Mets have only won 9 of their most recent 21 games and seem to be on their way down. Even without Strider and Acuna, the Braves are talented enough to hold off a mediocre Mets team and should make the playoffs.
AL East: Yankees & Orioles.
Over the past two weeks, the Yankees and Orioles have been switching off at the top of the AL East. Neither one has been able to establish a commanding lead. Nonetheless, I believe the Yankees will win the race. As we’ve seen a few times throughout this article, the season is long and most teams go through a fluky hot-stretch or cold-stretch in which they perform differently than the rest of the season. From June 13th until July 26th, the Yankees had a cold stretch in which they went 11W-23L. Before the stretch they were 49W-21L and since the stretch they’re 13W-6L. The Orioles haven’t had such a stretch, making their .584 winning percentage a reliable stat. Excluding the cold stretch, the Yankees’ winning percentage is .697, significantly better than Baltimore's. On the off chance that the Yankees slump again, the Orioles will win the division, if not, the Yankees should run away with the AL East.
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