Tier 3: Spark Teams
8. New York Mets (6 Seed NL):
While the New York Mets have been a great team in the latter stretch of the season, they’re still the least threatening team in the divisional series. Their lineup doesn’t go “9-deep”, their rotation lacks a true ace, and their bullpen ERA was over 4.00 this season. Their bullpen proved to be an issue last night, giving up 4 runs in the final two innings of New York’s 7-6 game 2 loss to the Phillies. They’re a good team, but they don’t have enough to go blow-for-blow with the best of the best.
7. Kansas City Royals (5 Seed AL):
The Kansas City Royals looked great in the WildCard series, holding the Orioles lineup which averaged 4.85 runs per game, to only 1 run in two games. The Royals were able to do so because of their front-heavy pitching staff. In the regular season, the Royals' top 3 starters all put up ERAs under 3.40, while their 4th and 5th guys weren’t nearly as dominant. Due to the extra rest days in the playoffs, the Royals don’t have to use their 4th and 5th starters.
However, the Royals’ rotation will be held back by a thin lineup and a sub-par bullpen. They have 4 great hitters at the top of their lineup, Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Michael Massey, but none of the remaining 5 have an OPS above .690. In addition, their bullpen ERA in the regular season was 4.13, 11th-worst in the MLB. The bullpen proved to be an issue on Saturday night, allowing 3 runs and blowing multiple leads, in their 6-5 loss to the New York Yankees. The Royals’ rotation plays well in the playoffs, but not well enough.
6. Detroit Tigers (6 Seed AL):
The Detroit Tigers found their stride late in the year and won 33 of their final 47 relevant games. Led by Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, they have several incredible young arms. As I mentioned, the front half of teams’ rotations gets a larger role in the postseason. Nonetheless, Detroit’s rotation is far from the only reason to be excited about their team. Their bullpen put up a 3.55 ERA this season, the 5th-best in all of baseball. In addition, their lineup is led by Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, two incredible young outfielders. Greene and Carpenter put up OPSs above .825 and over 0.11 extra-base-hits per at-bat from the left side of the plate. Since most of the top pitchers in the AL are right-handed, this duo can be lethal. The Tigers are clicking on all cylinders at the right team and might go on a run this October.
Tier 2: Contenders
5. Philadelphia Phillies (2 Seed NL):
The Philadelphia Phillies have as much star power as any other team. While their stars carried them to a great 95-win season, in the playoffs, they will face other teams with stars and their role players will have to come through. Throughout the regular season, their bullpen put up a middle-of-the-pack 3.94 ERA, and the bottom of their lineup struggled to get on base. Their lack of depth already showed in the latter half of the regular season, as they only won half of their final 76 games. The stars, such as Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler, will win some games for the Phillies in October. However, just like the Phillies’ last two playoff runs, it won’t quite be enough to win it all.
4. Cleveland Guardians (2 Seed AL):
The Cleveland Guardians are in a similar boat to the Phillies. Their stars, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Emmanuel Clase, and others, carried them to a great 92-win season. However, their roster is incomplete and not well-rounded at all. The issues begin in the batting lineup. While their top 4 guys, Ramirez, Kwan, Fry, and Josh Naylor, have OPSs above .775, 4 out of the 5 remaining batters’ marks are below .640. If pitchers can handle the top half of their lineup, they won’t be able to score once or ever. Nevertheless, the largest issue is in Cleveland’s rotation. While Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have been great, Cleveland doesn’t have a 3rd starter (10 or more starts) with an ERA below 4.85. Cleveland will have issues winning a 7-game series if they cannot get production from their 3rd or 4th starters. The Cleveland Guardians are a great team, but their roster isn’t well-rounded enough to compete with the best of the best. For a fact, Cleveland went 6W-14L against other division winners this season.
Tier 1: Juggernauts
3. New York Yankees (1 Seed AL):
The New York Yankees arguably have the best roster they’ve had in the Aaron Boone era. Especially now that Luke Weaver has emerged as their closer and the role players have begun to produce in the lineup, this team is scary. Nonetheless, New York has too many question marks in its rotation. Not a single one of their starting pitchers has had a consistent season. Cole, who is supposed to be the rock of their rotation, as we saw in his shaky start on Saturday night, hasn’t been the same due to dealing with an injury early in the year. Their 2nd and 3rd starters, Luis Gil and Carlos Rodon, have been good for the most part, but each collapsed for 4 or more earned runs on 7 different occasions this year. Their 4th guy, Clarke Schmidt, has been amazing but he’s only pitched 16 innings since coming off the IL, and as we saw regarding Cole, pitchers tend to be shaky after coming off the IL. The Yankees have an incredible roster, but I lack faith in Aaron Boone’s ability to properly manage this shaky pitching staff through a 7-game series.
2. San Diego Padres (4 Seed NL):
Not only have the Padres been great in the latter half of the season, but their roster should be even better in the MLB’s odd playoff format. San Diego has two horses at the front of their rotation, Dylan Cease and Michael King. Because of the extra rest days in the playoffs, San Diego should be able to ride the two through the postseason in a similar fashion to the way the Rangers rode Eovaldi and Montgomery to a championship last year. Already in the very first game of their playoff run, King showed his dominance, striking out 12 over 7 shut-out innings.
Furthermore, the Padres will benefit from their reverse splits. Since lineups tend to do better against left-handed starters, most teams stack up on right-handed pitchers. However, the Padres’ team OPS is .75 better against right-handed pitchers. Only 2 games into their NLDS matchup against the Dodgers, their reverse splits have come into play. San Diego has gotten to the Dodgers’ top two right-handed starters, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty, for 9 runs in only 8.1 innings so far. Don’t be surprised if these two advantages continue to work in the Padres’ favor and allow San Diego to go on a deep run.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (1 Seed NL):
The Los Angeles Dodgers went all-in this past offseason, and it’s paying off. Even though they’ve faced all the adversity possible, multiple pitchers going down with injuries, Freddie Freeman missing time due to his son being diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome, and many more issues, the Dodgers found a way to finish the year with the best record in baseball.
Between Freeman, Betts, and the incredible Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles might have the best trio any lineup has ever had. Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been dominant as well. Their bullpen put up a 3.53 ERA, the 4th-best in all of baseball. In addition, ever since his horrific debut, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been unhittable. Since his first game, Yamamoto has gone 7W-1L and has allowed only 25 earned runs over 89 innings, that’s an ERA of 2.52. If you’re facing Yamamoto in an elimination game, your season is as good as over. Furthermore, Dave Roberts already has plenty of postseason experience and has won a World Series as both a player and a manager. I believe that the winner of the series between the Dodgers and the Padres will win it all, and I expect the Dodgers to take that series in 5 games.
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