After reaching the Super Bowl in 2023 and the NFC Championship game in 2021 and 2022, the San Francisco 49ers were expected to continue their dominance into the 2024 season. However, through the first 5 weeks, the 49ers have been far from dominant. After San Fransico’s week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, they’re now 2W-3L, with two losses against losing teams. There have been a couple of issues with the 49ers, but do they explain such a large fall-off? Let’s take a deeper look at said issues, and determine how much of the 49ers’ struggles are temporary.
The Struggles:
The 2024 offseason was a mess in The Bay Area. That can be credited to Brandon Aiyuk. Brandon Aiyuk treated his contract dispute like a child. He dragged it out for far longer than necessary, failed to keep the matter professional by making a scene on social media, and eventually signed the contract the 49ers had been offering him all along. Instead of focusing on how to make their team the best it possibly could be for the upcoming season, the 49ers’ management had to focus on a player who was already under contract for the season. When he did eventually sign the new deal, Aiyuk already missed almost the entire preseason process. The impact has been evident on the field, as he is viably rusty. Through his first 5 games, Aiyuk has seen a decrease of 21.1 yards per game since last season and is yet to find the endzone.
The unproductive offseason added to an issue that they’ve already had since February. This issue was the gaping hole in their linebacking core, due to Dre Greenlaw tearing his Achilles in the Super Bowl. Greenlaw has put up over 120 tackles in each of the past two seasons and has been a crucial part of the 49ers’ defensive dominance. Without Greenlaw, their defense isn’t nearly the same. Due to the Brandon Aiyuk drama, the front office was preoccupied and failed to bring in a proper replacement. Only 5 weeks into the season, the difference in the numbers is astonishing. In the first 5 games of 2024, the 49ers have allowed 3.5 points per game and 21 rushing yards per game more than they did in 2023.
In addition to the absence of Greenlaw on the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers have been missing their best player on the offensive side of the ball. The 49ers’ superstar running back, Christian McCaffrey has been struggling with bilateral Achilles tendinitis since the preseason. After McCaffrey led the league in scrimmage yards and touchdowns in 2023, there is no need to further explain the impact of his absence. Brock Purdy’s playing style reflects the talent of the players around him. Hence, when his star players are out, he isn’t nearly as good. For example, when Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel missed 3 games last year, the 49ers went 0W-3L and scored 17 points in each game. In the 13 games they played with Purdy, the 49ers went 12W-1L and put up 30 or more points 9 times. In accordance, Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ aren’t nearly the same without McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s Achilles tendinitis is extremely concerning because Achilles tendinitis is what drove Todd Gurley out of the league. Much like McCaffrey, the Rams’ superstar running back led the league in scrimmage yards and touchdowns in 2017, and was forced into retirement by 2020. McCaffrey is a crucial part of San Francisco’s offense and the 49ers’ faithful are right to be terrified.
Between these three issues, the 49ers haven’t been the same on either side of the ball. As previously mentioned, their defense is allowing 3.5 points per game more this year. In addition, their offense is scoring 3.7 points per game less than last season. Together that is a difference of 7.2 points. Since 7 of the 49ers’ games in 2023 were decided by fewer than 7.2 points, the 49ers looking different adds up.
Looking Ahead:
On the offensive side of the ball, the 49ers’ issues should resolve themselves. Aiyuk has signed his contract and the only issue has been rust. However, what I wrote above about Aiyuk being rusty through the first 5 games isn’t completely true. After being a shell of his usual self for the first 4 games, Aiyuk was back and clicking on all cylinders in week 5. In San Francisco’s week 5 loss to the Cardinals, Aiyuk snagged 8 passes for a ridiculous sum of 147 yards. While he still hasn’t gotten his average numbers back up, he’s no longer rusty and will be fine going forward. In addition, there’s finally some encouraging news regarding McCaffrey. This past Sunday, NFL insider Adam Schefter reported that “there is some mild encouragement” because McCaffrey’s “calf and Achilles issues did not flare up after on-field work this week”. Hopefully, this is an indication that McCaffrey’s Achilles tendinitis isn’t nearly as bad as Todd Gurley’s and that he won’t suffer the same fate.
However, the defensive issues are still concerning. Dre Greenlaw’s injury is significant and he isn’t as close to returning. Last week, when asked about Greenlaw’s return, general manager John Lynch said “I don't have any updates as to exactly when it will be” and that he hopes for “him to play at some point this year”. This is devastating because the 49ers’ defense hasn’t been nearly the same. Not only have they allowed an extra 3.5 points per game, but they’ve done so while facing bottom-10 offenses in 3 out of the 5 games. In their next 7 games, San Francisco will face only high-powered offenses, the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, and the Seattle Seahawks twice. Since they’ve struggled against bad offenses, I won’t be shocked if these next 7 games get ugly.
Between things looking up for their offense and the defense not going anywhere, I expect the 49ers themselves to be halfway back to where they were last year. The remaining question is what will the rest of the NFC look like and will that be enough? There are currently 9 teams in the NFC with winning records, which should block the 49ers from a WildCard spot. However, only 1 of the 9 is in the NFC West and I am not convinced that the Seahawks (3W-2L) are legit. An offense cannot be consistent without good play from the offensive line, and Seattle’s offensive line is unreliable. In Pro Football Network’s recent rankings, Seattle’s unit ranked 29th in the NFL, 4th-worst. Through 5 games, Geno Smith has been sacked 18 times, 2nd-most in the NFL. The Seahawks have leaned on their offense as their defense has allowed 22.8 points per game, slightly below average. However, their offense won’t be able to continue producing 24.4 points per game when their quarterback is being treated like a ragdoll. I expect the Seahawks to slowly regress as the season ages. The 49ers have two games coming up against the Seahawks and have an opportunity to put themselves in a good position to win the division despite their slow start. If the 49ers can capitalize on the opportunity they can win the division by going 6W-6L or even 5W-7L in the other 12 remaining games. If they win the NFC West, and McCaffrey and Greenlaw are ready to go for the playoffs, the NFC better lookout! In conclusion, I don’t expect the 49ers to finish the regular season with an elite record like previous years, but I do expect them to win their division and make some noise in the playoffs.
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