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Nathan Aronoff

How to Tell Which Offenses Will Meet/Beat Expectations

Updated: Jul 16

With the NFL’s opening Hall of Fame Game only a few weeks away, NFL fans are starting to build their expectations for different teams. Every fan sub continuously analyzes each offense and creates a mental image of how good each offense will be this year. When doing so, we often make assumptions based on the weapons and the level of explosiveness. However, I believe that we’re completely overlooking the offensive line. The offensive line is one of the biggest, if not the biggest factor in the success or failure of an offense. The amount of talent a team has in their offensive line can be a tell to how good their offense will be this year, and here’s why:


THE PRACTICAL SIDE:

As much as we love watching the big-arm quarterbacks, and the explosive skill position players, the offensive line is the car keys, nothing starts without them. Each position is dependent on the line, while the line isn’t as dependent on the others.

No matter how good a running back is, if he doesn’t have open lanes the most he can do is break a tackle to avoid a tackle for loss. On the other hand, even a lousy running back can run for positive yards if he has wide-open lanes. The obvious example is Miles Sanders. Sanders put up 5 yards per attempt while playing for the Eagles. In his first year in Carolina, Sanders only rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt. 

A great quarterback is dependent on his offensive line. He needs a minimal amount of time to scan the field, and cannot make good decisions if he’s too rushed. Furthermore, even if he can make incredible throws, it doesn’t matter if he’s on his back by the time the route develops. A quarterback can’t throw a 60-yard bomb if he’s hit before the receiver gets 20 yards downfield. On the other hand, if the offensive line can hold a clean pocket for an extended amount of time, someone will eventually get wide open. It doesn’t always matter if the quarterback isn’t great at reading the field or fitting the ball into tight windows. If his line allows him to sit in the pocket for longer than the secondary can hold his receivers, he’ll eventually have an easy throw. The obvious example is Russell Wilson. In his first year in Denver, his sack percentage jumped from 7.6% to 10.2%. In accordance, his passer rating dropped from 103.1 to 84.4. Pass catchers fall into the same category as quarterbacks. It doesn’t matter how open you are if your quarterback is on the ground. On the other hand, if you have extra time to run your route, the defensive back won’t be able to stick with you forever.

In the end, it all comes together. Good run blocking leads to a good run game, which leads to more defenders in the box and a vulnerable pass defense. Good pass blocking leads to a good passing game, which leads to more defenders in the secondary and a vulnerable run defense. An offense with good run blocking, good pass blocking, and a competent supporting cast, will dominate. 


THE STATISTICAL SIDE:

Even though I played quarterback in high school, I can’t support my arguments exclusively with theoretical points. I need the stats to back it up, and there are plenty of stats to support my point. 

My first example is the 2023 Washington Commanders’ offense. In the 2023 season, Washington had arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. This lead to 2 things. The first was the fact that Washington ran the ball less than any other team. Washington’s 359 rush attempts were the fewest in the NFL. As I mentioned above, this harms more than just the run game. The lack of a threat on the ground allowed defenses to be better prepared and equipped to stop Washington’s passing game. The second result was Sam Howell being sacked 65 times, which was more than any other quarterback in the NFL. Between Howell feeling rushed in the pocket and opposing defenses being prepared for the passing attack, Howell ended up leading the league with 21 interceptions. Washington did have a few great weapons, such as Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson, but without a good line, they were useless. It is no coincidence that a team with a bottom-tier offensive line was in the bottom-tier in almost every other offensive category. 

The offenses that were able to rely on the line, unlike the Washington offense, had success in almost every field. According to PFF, the top two offensive lines in 2023 were the Philadelphia Eagles’ and Detroit Lions’ units. By “coincidence”, these offenses also had superstars in every other position. Let’s start with Philadelphia. The Eagles’ quarterback, Jalen Hurts was only sacked on 6.3% of his dropbacks. As a result, he was top-15 in the league in both passing yards and touchdowns, while also being 2nd in the league in rushing touchdowns. Both of their receivers, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were in the top 20 in the NFL in receiving yards. Last but not least, in his first year in Philly, Deandre Swift beat his previous career high in rushing yards by 432 yards. It’s no coincidence that the Eagles’ offense ranked top-10 in both yards and points. Now let’s take a look at the Lions. Detroit’s quarterback, Jared Goff was sacked on only 4.7% of his dropbacks, 3rd best in the NFL. As a result, Goff finished 2nd in the NFL in passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns. Their top receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown finished 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards and 6th in receiving touchdowns. Their rookie tight end, Sam Laporta set multiple rookie records while leading all tight ends with 10 receiving touchdowns. Between their great tandem of running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit’s offense led the NFL with 27 rushing touchdowns.  It’s no coincidence that the Lions’ offense ranked top-5 in both yards and points. 


While having a good scheme and a good quarterback is critical, and having good weapons helps, the offensive line is the teller. An offense can be good without great weapons, or with an average quarterback. However, an offense without a good offensive line doesn’t work. Every year there are teams who shock the world by suddenly having a great offense, and others who out of nowhere lose their offensive production. If you want to know who those teams will be in the upcoming season, and annoy your friends in later months by saying “Told you so”, look at the offensive lines. Here’s a link to PFF’s latest offensive line rankings: Click here.

My pick for breakout offense this year is the Indianapolis Colts. They have two great tackles in Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith, and Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson bring it all together in the middle. On the other hand, my pick for disappointing offense is the Seattle Seahawks. While they do have great weapons in Metcelf, Smith-Njigba, and Walker, not a single one of their interior offensive linemen is a starting-caliber player. 



RELEVANT FOOTBALL REFERENCE PAGES:






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