Every year, slightly past the midseason mark, every MLB team must evaluate their roster and decide if they’re “buyers” or “sellers”. “Sellers” are teams that have understood that they won’t be able to accomplish much with their current rosters. Therefore, at the trade deadline, they trade away their established players nearing the end of their contracts, in exchange for young pieces who can help them in the future. If you’re not going to accomplish anything with these established players, you might as well trade them for players who will help you when you have a chance to accomplish more. On the other hand, “buyers” are teams that believe they have a good opportunity to accomplish their goals this season. Therefore, they trade for established players who can help patch the holes in their roster. The buyers believe that they have to capitalize on their opportunity to make a deep playoff run and bolster up their team in preparation for October.
In 2022, the MLB introduced a new playoff format. The new playoff format includes an extra wildcard slot in each league. It also allows the wildcard teams to play a real best of 3 series, instead of a risky win-or-go-home single wildcard game. These two changes are very advantageous to the teams that weren’t good enough to win their divisions. It has completely changed the definition of “buyers” and “sellers” and is causing chaos throughout the league.
BUYERS:
The new playoff format allows teams that aren’t good to have a chance at making the playoffs until the very end. As of June 13th, the National League wildcard standings are very close. The San Diego Padres are currently in possession of the 2nd out of the 3 NL wildcard spots. 8 National League teams are 5 or fewer games behind San Diego. I would say that 5 games back is within striking distance, until the final two weeks of the season. Out of these 9 teams within striking distance of the 5 and 6 seeds in the NL, 8 have losing records.
Last October, we saw the 5 seed from the American League face the 6 seed from the National League. What that taught us, is that all that matters is reaching the playoffs. It taught us that any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to go on a deep playoff run. In accordance, all 9 teams within striking distance of the 5 and 6 seeds in the NL, should do what they can to improve their roster to allow themselves to sneak in. The 1-4 seeds in the NL seem like legitimate contenders, and the 5-13 seeds seem like they can go on surprise runs. With that logic, all 13 NL teams mentioned above should be “buyers” and only the remaining 2 should be “sellers”.
SELLERS:
While being “buyers” at the trade deadline is most definitely more fun and exciting, it’s extremely risky. Falsely evaluating your roster as fit to be “buyers” can derail the future of the franchise. Let’s use the 2023 Angels as an example. A week before the deadline, the Angels were 51W-49L. Since it was the last year before they would lose Shohei Ohtani, they were forced to either go all-in to win while they still had him, or trade him and get what they could for the two-way star. They decided to go all in as “buyers” and traded away 5 of their top 10 prospects, in exchange for players who won’t have long-term use or production. The Angels ended up going 22W-40L to finish at 73W-89L, and all of the players they acquired became free agents. They missed the playoffs and Shohei Ohtani left in free agency. Fast forward to today, June 13th, 2024, the Angels have the 5th-worst record in the MLB, and arguably the weakest farm system in all of baseball. Due to their poor decision at the 2023 deadline, the Angels stink and have no way of fixing it in the foreseeable future. Their 173.5-million-dollar payroll is on the higher end, so they can’t rebuild via free agency. They don’t have a single top-100 prospect, so they can’t rebuild through their farm system.
While there are 9 teams technically within striking distance of the 5 and 6 seeds in the NL, these teams have to evaluate their rosters very carefully. You do not want to end up like the Angels. As tempting as being the next Diamondbacks or Rangers might be, not every team will end up like that.
HOW I WOULD APPROACH IT:
It’s very tempting to go all-in, but it’s equally risky. The way to determine the right course of action is to check if you have a potential game plan. You must do it strategically.
The Rangers and Diamondbacks played better in the playoffs than the regular season because their pitching staffs were built for the playoffs. In the regular season, teams play almost every day and try to win every day. Therefore, you need 5 or 6 starting pitchers in the regular season. In the playoffs, teams have many more off days, and in each series, only need to win one game more than they lose. Hence, the top 3 or 4 starting pitchers in the rotation are the most important part of a playoff roster. On both the 2023 Diamondbacks and the 2023 Rangers, the front half of the rotation was one of the strongest parts of their teams. The Diamondbacks trio of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt was what allowed them to go on a deep playoff run. In accordance, the teams in striking distance of the 5 and 6 spots, should check if they go all-in, will their 1-3 starters be better than the 1-3 starters on other playoff teams. For example, the Chicago Cubs should be “buyers”. The Cubs are currently 33W-35L, but their 1 and 2 starting pitchers, Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad, are in the top 12 MLB in ERA. If the Cubs can acquire one more top-30 starting pitcher at the deadline, they’ll be primed to win the first 3 games of a playoff series more times than not. A team that goes 3W-0L or 2W-1L in the first 3 games of every playoff series will make it at least to their league’s championship series.
In addition, these teams must evaluate the risk. Go through the depth of your organization. Ideally, trade the players and prospects at positions that you don’t need. For example, the Yankees have Aaron Judge under contract for the next 7 years, and 3 of their top 5 prospects are outfielders. Hence, the Yankees can afford to trade away one of those outfield prospects. The Cincinnati Reds are currently 33W-35L. Two of the Reds’ best players are their shortstop, Elly De La Cruz, and their third baseman, Jeimer Candelario. Three of the Reds’ top 4 prospects play shortstop or third base. Hence, Cincinnati can allow themselves to trade two of the three to improve their pitching staff. On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates who are currently 32W-35L, shouldn’t go all-in. Pittsburgh lacks depth in their lineup, with only 4 hitters posting an OPS above league average. I wouldn’t say that their pitching staff has great depth either. The Pirates have 4 of the top 65 prospects in baseball, and all 4 are expected to be with the big league club in the immediate future. Pittsburgh should hang onto their prospects and allow them to develop. While this might prevent them from capitalizing this year, it’ll probably become one of the top teams in the NL for years to come.
Between the National League and the American League, 24 teams can potentially go on deep playoff runs. Nevertheless, only 4 will do so, and the other 20 will have to restart. Deciding to be “buyers” at the trade deadline can be the best or worst move your franchise has ever made. We still have a month and a half before these teams must make a final decision. Next month, I’ll post a list of who I believe should be “buyers” and who should be “sellers”.
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