Nathan Aronoff
The 3 Approaches:
As we enter the month of October, the MLB playoffs are rapidly approaching. Before the playoffs begin, let’s take a look at what it takes to get there. Along with that, I will discuss the consequences of the fact that GMs are trying to make money instead of trying to win.
Over the past decade or so, almost every single successful team used one of three strategies to build their roster. I will list each strategy, then explain the strategy, and bring an example of a team using said strategy.
Dishing out money
Developing the farm system
Statistics & balance
Dishing out money:
The first strategy is the most simple one. The idea is, if a good player is available, offer him more money than other teams are willing to pay him. This way the team can “buy” as many good players as possible and put together a good roster. Unlike most other sports, baseball doesn’t have a salary cap. This way, if the team can afford it, they can get almost any player they desire. However, the reason baseball doesn’t have a salary cap is because baseball isn’t like other sports, and “buying” good players doesn’t always work.
Example: The Los Angeles Dodgers
Even though the strategy isn’t working for teams like the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres, when executed correctly, it can lead to success. The Los Angeles Dodgers, currently have the 6th highest payroll in the MLB and are paying large amounts of money to players like first baseman Freddie Freeman (27M) and outfielder Mokkie Betts (25M). But that’s okay because they’re good. The Dodgers are sitting in first place in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, the NL West, and will be a major contender come October. The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the most wealthy franchises in the MLB and have been using this strategy for years. It is clearly working since they’ve made the postseason every year since 2013.
Developing the farm system:
Developing the team’s farm system is the best way to compete with rich franchises, like the Dodgers, without having as much money. The key is to sign and trade for as many young prospects with great potential as possible. Since these prospects only have the potential to be great and aren’t great yet, their salaries are usually very low. This way, when some of them do develop into great players, for the first few the team is still paying them the salary of potentially great players. When their contract is about to expire, instead of renewing it, the team trades the players away for new prospects and starts the cycle over again.
Example: The Baltimore Orioles
Over the past few years, the Baltimore Orioles have been hard to watch at times. Finally, this year it’s all coming together for the O’s. Baltimore has the 3rd lowest payroll in baseball yet they have the best record in the AL. The Orioles' three best hitters this season have been catcher Adely Rutschman, outfielder Anthony Santander, and rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson. The combined salary of the three is slightly under 9 million dollars while the average salary of a single MLB player is 5 million dollars.
Statistics & Balance:
The third and final strategy is my personal favorite. The strategy is a combination of the two previous ones with the addition of statistics. The team uses statistics to determine what type of players will play well together and complement each other. The team will at times be aggressive by trading for stars or signing big-time free agents, while simultaneously maintaining a strong farm system and not jeopardizing the future of the club.
Example: The Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves currently have the best record in the MLB while entering the season with a payroll 140 million dollars cheaper than their division rivals, the New York Mets (At the time). Atlanta loves to focus on metrics when acquiring players. They lead the MLB in hard-hit ball percentage, and as a result, they’re first in the MLB in runs scored. Before the start of the 2022 campaign, the Braves were not afraid to go out and trade star first baseman, Matt Olson, or give big money to their superstar outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr. (17M). While making those big moves the Braves also developed young stars, such as shortstop Orlando Arcia so that they didn’t have to get into a bidding war to keep their previous shortstop Dansby Swanson. The two shortstops have practically an even OPS so far this season, but Swanson is getting paid 14 million dollars by the Chicago Cubs, while the Braves are only paying Arcia 2.3 million dollars.
The Anomaly:
On March 19th, 2018, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed the Japanese two-way player, Shohei Ohtani. The Angeles signed Ohtani hoping he could convert his dominance in the NPB over to the MLB. In his first 5 seasons with the Angels Ohtani did it all! He won the 2018 Rookie of the Year, the 2021 AL-MVP, a silver slugger, and made two all-star appearances. Ohtani did all that while both pitching and hitting, making him as valuable as two superstar players. Shohei is quite literally a baseball anomaly.
He is now in his 6th year with the Angels and his contract expires once the season ends. Since Ohtani is somehow having his best season yet, he’s anticipated to receive a contract worth north of 50 million dollars a year, 20 million more than he is making this season. The Los Angeles Angels are not one of baseball’s wealthiest teams and do not have a reputation for dishing out big contracts. The Angels’ payroll is already at an all-time high of 235 million dollars. To keep Ohtani they would have to add a bare minimum of 20 million dollars to it. In addition, two of their top three hitters aside from Ohtani are due for new contracts in the next year or two. Even before the trade deadline, I did not see a reality where the Angels could keep Ohtani without the rest of their team falling apart. Furthermore, the Angels already have struggles maintaining supporting casts around their superstars. They have owned Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, arguably the best two players in the MLB, for six years now without making a single playoff appearance.
What are the Angels Trying to do?:
A week before the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Angels sat at 51-49. At the time, the Angels were not in a wildcard spot and were in third place in their division. Since the Angels’ season wasn’t promising, speculation grew around a potential trade of Shohei Ohtani. Teams around the MLB suspected that the Angels might realize that they’re not going to make any major accomplishments this season and they’re not going to be able to sign Ohtani to a new contract. If so, they might as well get what they can for him and let a different team pay the rest of his current contract, by trading him to a contender. However, since Ohtani helps sell tickets and jerseys, the Angels’ general manager, Perry Minasian refused to trade the two-way superstar. The only way to justify keeping Ohtani was to claim that they were still contenders this season and needed him for their playoff run. Even though due to the MLB expanding their playoff format, they can sneak in as a wildcard team, no sane person believes the Angels are legit World Series contenders. They are not a top team in the MLB, are not a top team in the AL, and aren’t even a top-3 team in their own division. Plus, the Angels’ pitching is weaker than their hitting, which is usually the formula for underperforming in the playoffs and having a disappointing October.
Then they made things worse. To protect their claim that they were still contenders, the Angels had to act like contenders. When a contending team is gearing up for a playoff run, by the trade deadline they try to trade for “rental players” to help make their roster stronger than other contending team’s rosters. A “rental player” is a player on a “non-contending” team who is nearing the end of his contract. The team decides that since they will not be able to use the player to accomplish anything, they might as well trade him for some prospects who might be able to help them in a few years, once they’ve built a better roster. On top of the prospects, they can pin a large portion of the player’s current contract, on the other team. This is what the Angels should have done with Ohtani. As I mentioned, to protect their claim that they were still contenders, the Angels had to act like contenders. Therefore, the Angels traded away two of their top prospects, catcher Edgar Quero (age 20) and pitcher Ky Bush (age 23) to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Both Giolito and Lopez will become free agents after this season and will not help the Angels in the long run while Quero and Bush instantly became top-10 prospects in the White Sox’s organization. The Angels didn’t stop there. They sent pitching prospects Mason Albright and Jake Madden to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for first baseman CJ Cron and outfielder Randal Grichuk. Both Cron and Grichuk will become free agents after the season, while Albright and Madden instantly became top-25 prospects in the Rockies’ organization. Don’t worry, the Angels were not done yet. They sent infield prospect Jeremiah Jackson to the Mets in exchange for pitcher Dominic Leone. Just like the others, Leone will become a free agent at the end of this season while Jackson is now the number 22 prospect in the Mets organization. In total, the Angels threw away five players who could've been large pieces of their future rosters, while not adding a single player that will help them after this year.
The Consequences:
The Los Angeles Angels didn’t choose any of the three strategies I discussed at the beginning of the article. By not picking one, they might have destroyed the future of their franchise. The Angels went on to only win 8 games in August and missed the playoffs. It gets worse, Ohtani tore his UCL and did not pitch in September, while Trout was placed on the IL and was “unlikely to return” before the season ends. It gets even worse, the Angels grew frustrated with the poor performance of their new “rentals” and on August 29th, placed Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Randal Grichuk on waivers. That’s right, they completely gave up on the majority of their trade deadline haul. After the 2023 season, 13 Angels’ players will be free agents. The majority of the pending free agents have been playing better than they did in their previous contract season and, therefore, will want pay raises. This offseason, the Angels will be forced to take one of two courses of action. They can either resign Ohtani and let most of the other guys go, or bring back a large portion of the pending free agents and miss out on Ohtani. Either way, the Angels will lose an extensive part of their production. Don’t worry, they’ll just replace the veterans they lost with players from their farm system, oh right, they traded them all away at the deadline. The “Halos” are not that great, to begin with, they will soon become worse due to losing a handful of key players and will have no cash or prospects to help make the team better. Dear Angels’ general manager Perry Minasian, what’s your plan?!
Comments