10. HOUSTON ASTROS (Previously Unranked):
At the start of the 2024 season, I felt odd leaving the Houston Astros out of the top 3. I argued that Joe Espada had never managed before, and their starting rotation was weaker than in previous years. Early in the season, they proved me right and made me regret not putting them lower than 5th. On June 12th, the Astros lost 5-3 to the San Francisco Giants, dropping to 31W-38L, 7 games under. Ever since that loss, they’ve been that top-tier team that we’re used to seeing in Houston. Since June 13th, the Astros are 12W-3L, now 43W-41L, and only 3 games out of a playoff spot. Joe Espada has seemed to figure it out and their lineup is rolling. They’re scoring so many runs that the rotation’s struggles haven’t mattered. Houston has won 4 out of the last 5 games in which their pitching staff allowed 5 or more runs. As a Yankee fan, seeing the Astros get hot terrifies me.
9. SAN DIEGO PADRES (Previously Unranked):
Before the season, I thought the Padres were entering a rebuilding year. They weren’t great last year and lost Soto, Hader, and Snell in the offseason. So naturally, they’ll be a worse team. Through April I was pretty confident, as they finished the month 15W-18L. They were right around .500 for the following month and a half but then caught fire. The Padres won 9 of their last 11 games in June, to make their record 46W-42L, and put them in the second NL wildcard spot.
There have been four unexpected difference-makers for the Padres. The first two are their early-season acquisitions of Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez. Cease has held the pitching staff together, leading the team in strikeouts (125), wins (7), and starts (17) through the first half of the season. Meanwhile, Arraez, who was acquired a month into the season, has the highest batting average on the team(.324) and his left-handed bat brings balance to a lineup built around 3 right-handed sluggers, Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts. The other two, are two outfielders who were expected to be role players but ended up contributing more than anyone else. Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar have both been great for the Padres. Excluding the injured Fernando Tatis, Merrill and Profar are the Padres' top guys in terms of OPS and hits. Merrill was a top prospect, so his success isn’t mind-blowing. It’s simply surprising that it came so soon. In 2023, Profar put up a below-league average .689 OPS. Since he’s already in his 30s, nobody expected him to develop or improve anymore. Nevertheless, he currently has a .884 OPS, 14th-best in all of baseball. Between these four, the Padres are a completely different team.
8. KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+1):
The Kansas City Royals had the most active offseason in the MLB and it’s paying off. Last season, the Royals saw Bobby Witt emerge as a second star, aside from Salvador Perez. In addition, they saw sparks of potential from their young starting pitchers, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer. They went out this past offseason and got role players to back up their stars. It’s worked to perfection. Witt, Perez, Ragans, and Singer have all been better than anyone expected, and a few of their signings are contributing as well. Their best signing on the pitching side has been Seth Lugo. Lugo leads the team in innings pitched (116), games started (18), wins (11), and ERA (2.17). Their best signing on the hitting side has been Hunter Renfroe. Despite not playing every day, Renfroe has mashed 8 home runs and doubles, making his OPS .683, 5th-best on the team. Ironically, that is my only concern regarding the Royals. They only have 4 hitters with above-league average OPSs. If a pitcher can work around the top of their lineup, the bottom half will get smoked. It’ll be difficult to beat top-tier teams with their shallow lineup.
7. ATLANTA BRAVES (-1):
Entering the year, the Atlanta Braves were my preseason pick to win the World Series. However, two season-ending injuries have completely changed the trajectory of Atlanta’s season. Losing their ace, Spencer Strider affects the way the Braves’ rotation matches up with others in a playoff series. Atlanta lost to the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS because they didn’t have enough lights-out starting pitchers. Even though Chris Sale and Max Fried have looked great, I doubt the Braves can get past the NLDS without Strider. Losing Ronald Acuna didn’t help either. Two of their starting outfielders, Michael Harris and Adam Duval have struggled this season, posting OPSs of .653 and .535. Now that Acuna has torn his ACL, the Braves will most likely be forced to start both Harris and Duval in every playoff game. They’ll already be playing from behind without Strider, and having to start two liabilities in the outfield will make it a challenge for Atlanta to even get past the wildcard round.
6. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+1):
After losing their manager and their ace this past offseason, I expected the Brewers to take a step back in 2024. However, a handful of Milwaukee’s young guys have emerged as breakout stars. The most important to their success is their 25-year-old starting pitcher, Tobias Myers. In his rookie season, Myers is leading their rotation with a 3.26 ERA. Nevertheless, the story has been about the young bats in the Brewers’ lineup. The Brewers have 10 hitters posting an OPS above .675, 5 of them are 26 years old or younger. They have 4 hitters in the top 61 in the MLB in OPS, .761 or higher, and 3 of them are 26 years old or younger. Joey Ortiz (.817 OPS) and Bryce Turang (.761 OPS) have been key contributors to the offense, combining for 65 RBIs. The Brewers’ lineup will be able to overpower a few pitching staff in the early stages of the playoffs. Nonetheless, their rotation is an issue. As I mentioned, their only starter with an ERA under 3.6 is a rookie. I doubt the Brewers’ rotation will be able to keep up with the big boys in the NLDS or World Series.
5. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-1):
The Cleveland Guardians have had a great first half and are currently in possession of the best record in the American League, 52W-30L. The top half of their lineup is a gauntlet, containing four batters with an OPS of .819 or higher, David Fry, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, and Steven Kwan. They have two good young arms in their rotation, Ben Lively and Tanner Bibee. Both Lively and Bibee have ERAs under 3.5. Despite that, the bullpen is the best part of their team. The Guardians have one of, if not the best closers in baseball, Emmanuel Clase. At 0,69, Clase does have the best ERA in their pen, but Hunter Gaddis at 1.40, Tim Herrin at 107, and Cade Smith at 1.95 aren’t far behind. If the Guardians reach the 7th inning with a lead, it’s “game over”.
However, there is one major concern with the Cleveland Guardians. They lack depth both in the rotation and in the lineup. Aside from the 4 mentioned batters with OPSs of .819 or higher, there’s not a single batter on their team that’s not either injured or under .650. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 good hitters are left-handed, so the entire team will struggle against good left-handed pitching. To add onto that, aside from the 2 mentioned young arms, not a single pitcher in Cleveland’s rotation has an ERA under 5.11. You cannot expect to win a playoff series when starting pitchers with ERAs of 5+ in games 3 and 4. The Guardians are good, but they have a lot of work to do at the trade deadline before I can call them a World Series contender.
4. NEW YORK YANKEES (-2):
As a fan of the team, this one stings a bit. The Yankees got off to an incredible start to their season. On June 14th, they were 50W-22L, looking like the best team in the American League. Since June 14th, two major flaws in their team have come to light. The flaws work off each other.
The first is that their left-handed starting pitchers are unreliable. The two lefties in their rotation are Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon. Cortes’s ERA is 3.51 and Rodon’s is 4.42. Neither number is great, but on the surface, neither is too problematic either. However, upon examination, you’ll see that they’re both usually even better than their numbers. They’ve gone for 6 or more innings while allowing 2 or fewer runs in 17 of their 35 starts. This raises the question of how their ERAs are so average. That’s because, in one out of every four or five starts, they’ll implode and allow 4 or more runs. Starting them in a playoff game is like playing Russian Roulette with your season.
This brings the second issue into play. When plan A fails, Aaron Boone has no idea what to do. On occasion, your starter won’t have his stuff that night. It’s unideal but it happens to every pitcher. Great managers, such as Kevin Cash, will identify it, and use creativity and strategic moves to scrap together 7 or more solid innings from their bullpens. Even if they go down 3 or 4 runs early, if the pen can keep it close and the lineup does its job, they’ll often end up winning or at least causing the other team to waste their top bullpen arms. But Aaron Boone has no idea what to do in these situations. Since June 14th, Boone has kept the starter in the game long enough to allow 5 or more runs, 6 times. In addition, he has no idea what to do with the bullpen when he has to piece a game together with them. This might be why he’s reluctant to take out the starter. It’s inexcusable to not have long-inning options in the bullpen. Ideally, two guys who can be optioned to AAA and switch off after each extensive appearance. There’s a chance that the Yankees’ starting pitchers pitch well enough in October to win it all, but banking on that, without a plan B, is unwise. If New York’s rotation isn’t perfect in the playoffs, we’re in for yet another disappointing finish in October.
3. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (+2):
At 55W-29L, the Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in the National League. However, in their recent stretch against the AL East, my concerns were confirmed. The Phillies lineup is constructed of many aggressive sluggers, that tend to expand the zone and swing-and-miss a lot. While they do put up big numbers against average pitching, this philosophy won’t work against pitchers with good movement on their pitches. Having so many of these guys in the lineup, and lacking diversity, will destroy the Phillies in the playoffs. In a 4 game stretch, from June 13th through June 16th, Philly faced 4 great starters, Tanner Houck, Grayson Rodriguez, and Corbin Burnes. The Phillies only managed 7 runs off the 3 and lost all 3 games. The 2018-2022 Yankees taught us that if a lineup isn’t diverse, the opponents will use specialists to attack one specific weakness. They’re a great team, they’ll probably finish with the top record in the NL, but I doubt they’ll win more than 1 playoff series.
2. BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+1):
Led by their young superstars, Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, the Baltimore Orioles are the most complete team in the American League. At 53W-31L, they’re currently in 1st place in the AL East. The Yankees stuttered for a few games and the Orioles pounced on the opportunity to claim first place in the division. I expect that to repeat itself in the playoffs. The Orioles’ roster is so complete, that when the opponent stutters, no matter when it is, the Orioles will have the ability to take advantage. MLB's average in OPS is around .700, the Orioles have 8 guys above that mark, and 7 of them are above .750 as well. No inning against them isn’t dangerous. Even the guys in their lineup that are below .750, aren’t easy outs. On the pitching side, they have three starters with sub-3 ERAs and six guys that are sub-3.4 in the pen. There’s no hole in their roster, there’s nowhere to attack. Even as a fan of a different AL East team, the Baltimore Orioles are my pick to win the American League Pennant.
1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-):
At 52W-33L, the Los Angeles Dodgers currently have the second-best record in the National League, and the fifth-best in the MLB. However, unlike the four teams with better records, the Dodgers are built to overperform in the playoffs. While Yoshinobu Yamamoto is currently on the 15-day IL, he’s expected to be back at 100% well before October. If the Dodgers have Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Gavin Stone in the playoffs, they’re almost guaranteed to win the World Series. Allow me to explain:
In the playoffs, pitching matchups are key. It’s all about how our 1 matches up with their 1, how our 2 matches up with their 2, and so on. Due to all the off days in the playoffs, the fifth starter becomes irrelevant. Since you don’t need to go undefeated, and you only need to win one game more than the opponent to advance, the fourth starter isn’t very important either. Therefore, the team with the better 1-3 starters will almost always win the series. All 3 of the Dodgers’ 1-3, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Stone, have ERAs of 3.23 or lower, and their combined record is 23W-9L. That’s a .719 win rate, the team with the best record in baseball has a .655 win rate.
In addition, the Dodgers’ lineup has an average OPS of .774. That three-headed monster backed up by that lineup, is theoretically unbeatable in a playoff series. At the midway mark, the Los Angeles Dodgers are my pick to win the 2024 World Series!
Comments