SNEAKY GOOD TEAMS:
10. CHICAGO CUBS:
The Chicago Cubs did a lot with a little this offseason. The Cubs were a much better team in the latter half of the 2023 season. They returned from the dead to make a legit playoff push in September and only fell one game short. Chicago now has momentum and aspires to be the improved version of the team for the entirety of the 2024 season. They hired the perfect man for the job by hiring former Brewers’ manager, Craig Counsell. Counsell is incredible at managing the bullpen and the lineup. I believe he was a big part of Milwaukee’s success in 2023 and should significantly improve the Cubs’ on-field results this season. The Cubs’ front office won cold wars with Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman. They beat Stroman by signing Shota Imanaga to a 4-year 53 million dollar deal instead of giving Stroman the 18.5 million dollars a year he got from the Yankees. They beat Bellinger by simply waiting out Scott Boras and signing Bellinger to a 3-year 80 million dollar deal after Bellinger was reportedly looking for a $200 million contract. I believe the Cubs will be the team we saw in the second half of the season and will land a wildcard spot.
9. DETROIT TIGERS:
The Detroit Tigers are my sleeper team for the 2024 season. Detroit has a stable of young arms with high ceilings, such as Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, and a handful of them should hit their stride this year. In addition, they have several guys who hit the ball well but have been getting unlucky. Such as Spencer Torkelson, who was 12th in the MLB in “hard-hit” balls with 223, yet was 78th in OPS with an OPS of .759. If my logic is correct, Torkelson has simply been unlucky and he should have a break-out 2024 season. Furthermore, they have several talented young bats who will become impact players in the near future. Such as outfielders Kerry Carpenter and Riley Green who both posted OPSs above .795 last year. Or top infield prospects Jace Jung and Colt Keith, who are both in the top 60 on the MLB’s top-100 prospect list. Detroit added a couple of underrated solid veterans in Mark Canha and Jack Flaherty as well. I expect the Detroit Tigers to be a very solid team this year and blow through the weak AL Central Division.
8. CINCINNATI REDS:
The Cincinnati Reds are another young and fun team. The Reds won 20 games more in 2023 than in 2022, and I expect them to make another jump. They were great last year but couldn’t quite reach the playoffs because they lacked experience. Last season, the average age of the players in their starting lineup was 25.3 years old. With some experience, they will most definitely improve. Not to mention that their two best rookies, Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, were only called up mid-season and both played less than 100 games. In addition, this offseason, the Reds signed Jeimer Candelario signed a 3-year deal. Candelario put up a great .807 OPS in 2023 and will provide both contact and power from both sides of the plate. While their pitching is still a concern, starting this year, I expect the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup to be one of the most lethal lineups in the MLB for years to come. In my opinion, the Cincinnati Reds will win the NL Central division in 2024.
CAN’T COUNT THESE TEAMS OUT:
7. NEW YORK YANKEES:
The New York Yankees had a down year at the plate in 2023. However, their front office made a couple of perfect moves to fix the issue. The Yankees’ team OPS in 2023 was .701, 24th in the MLB. Their OPS against left-handed pitching was solid, at .777. The major issue was their .683 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Yankees traded for Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo this offseason. Soto has a career 1.000 OPS against right-handed pitching and Verdugo’s is .807. It is also important to note that Anthony Rizzo who suffered a concussion after 55 games last year is coming back healthy. Rizzo’s career OPS against right-handed pitching is .854. If that’s not enough, we will see either or both top outfield prospects Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez late in the year. Jones is a left-handed hitter and therefore has an advantage against right-handed pitchers, and Dominguez is a switch hitter who can do damage from either side of the plate. Not only will these players improve New York’s OPS against right-handed pitchers, but their presence will also encourage opposing teams to use more left-handed pitchers. Facing more left-handed pitchers will be a game-changer for their right-handed hitters, such as Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, whose career OPSs against lefties are .990 and .864. The health of both Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole is currently uncertain, but if they don’t miss significant time, expect the New York Yankees to return to being contenders this season.
6. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
The Arizona Diamondbacks broke out in the first half of the 2023 season as the new young and fun team. After starting red-hot, they cooled down a bit and had to scratch into the playoffs as the 6 seed. However, in the playoffs, they got hot again. What hurt Arizona all year was their lack of depth in their starting rotation, they had no talent behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. They got hot in the playoffs because their rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt stepped up. In October, they didn’t need more than three starters because there are many built-in off days in the playoffs, so their rotation took fewer games to reset. Arizona’s front office understood this and went out and signed Eduardo Rodriguez this offseason. Rodriguez is coming off the best season of his career in 2023. In which, he pitched 153 innings in 26 starts and posted a career-low 3.30 ERA. If Pfaadt and Rodriguez continue pitching well in 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will be a top-3 team in the National League and may even give the Dodgers a run at their money in the NL West.
5. HOUSTON ASTROS:
You can’t count out the Houston Astros because they’re the Houston Astros. The Astros have run the American League for the past half-decade. When they fell one win short of winning the pennant last year, it felt like a down year for them. However, I believe their dynasty is on its way down. Losing Dusty Baker will hurt Houston and Joe Espada isn’t nearly a good enough replacement. The last time the Astros won a playoff game without AJ Hinch or Dusty Baker was 2005. The Astros will be good this year, especially since they added Josh Hader to their already talented bullpen, but don’t be surprised if it feels like they’re missing the glue that put it all together. I expect the Astros to win one or two playoff series, which to their standards is a disappointing year.
WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS:
4. TEXAS RANGERS:
The Texas Rangers are the reigning world champions and their lineup is only getting better. Texas already was one of the best hitting teams in the MLB in 2023, despite Corey Seager missing 43 games. Seager is the best batter at the shortstop position and if he can stay healthy in 2024 he’ll be an MVP candidate. In addition, the young bats are going to give Texas a big boost this year. Outfield prospect Evan Carter came up late in the year in 2023 and instantly made an impact. He posted a .917 OPS in the playoffs and was a big contributor to the team’s first-ever World Series win. Along with Carter, super prospect Wyatt Langford is expected to make his MLB debut this year. Langford looked like a man amongst children as tore through the Rangers’ minor league system to reach AAA in record time. In spring training so far, nobody’s been able to get him out. His OPS so far this spring is a wild 1.243. A full season of Seager, Carter, and Langford in that Texas lineup is a scary thought. The only reason they’re not the number 1 team on this list is their rotation. They’re yet to resign Jordan Montgomery, and Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom won’t be healthy for the first period of the season. If the Rangers figure out the rotation situation, don’t be surprised if they win back-to-back fall classics.
3. BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
The Baltimore Orioles were incredible last year. Led by Adley Rutschman, their young core can hit the cover off the ball. In addition to the fact that they had six hitters with OPSs above .765 in 2023, they still have one of the top farm systems in the league. Baltimore has 5 of the MLB’s top 32 prospects, including the number one ranked, 20-year-old Jackson Holliday. Last year, as a Yankee fan I wasn’t intimidated by the Orioles’ potential dynasty. That was because they lacked an ace pitcher to win big playoff games and the ability to resign these players. I was proven to be correct when the Orioles were bounced in the ALDS after winning 100 games. However, this past offseason the Orioles were bought by a new ownership group, led by David Rubenstein, whose net worth is 3.9 billion dollars. Not only do they now have the ability to keep their starts around, but only days after the purchase, the new owners traded for Corbin Burnes. Burnes has been incredible over the last three years, earning three All-Star selections and a Cy Young award. He’s the type of elite pitcher who can take over a playoff series. It’s hard to say Baltimore is a lock to win it all because there are two superteams in the National League. Nevertheless, I don’t see a reason why they won’t win the American League.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS:
The Los Angeles Dodgers were a great team in the 2023 regular season, but got embarrassed in the playoffs. Their consecutive NLDS losses must’ve made their front office go mad because they went ALL-OUT this offseason. Los Angeles started by giving Shohei Ohtani a 700-million-dollar contract. Then they gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 325-million-dollar deal. Then they traded for Tyler Glasnow and extended his contract by four years. Then they signed the multi-time silver slugger, outfielder Teoscar Hernandez to a 1-year 23.5-million-dollar deal.
Nevertheless, if we learned anything from Steve Cohen and the Mets’ failure, it’s that money can’t buy championships in the MLB. We’ve already seen some reasons for concern regarding the way the Dodgers have built their roster. Their starting infielders have looked horrible in the field. Neither their starting shortstop nor third baseman has been able to make consistent throws to first. It’s gotten to a point where they’ve had to move Mookie Betts to shortstop. Mookie is naturally a right fielder who’s played a bit of second base. Planning on him starting at second base was an experiment, to begin with, so having him play shortstop is a complete shot in the dark. However, the Dodgers’ hand is forced because Gavin Lux clearly can’t make the throw from the left side of the infield, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be any better at second base. The defensive issues will haunt the Dodgers and in my opinion, will be the reason they’ll lose in the NLCS to the number one team on my list.
ATLANTA BRAVES:
The Atlanta Braves are built to win. On their way to winning 104 games in 2023, they led the MLB in every single offensive category. They won the World Series in 2021 but lost in the NLDS in each of the last two seasons. I believe that they’re done losing in the playoffs and their front office made sure of it by trading for Chris Sale. Sale is an experienced pitcher who has made 10 postseason starts and has won a World Series. The addition of Chris Sale should allow the Braves to be just as good in the playoffs. The Braves had 7 hitters with OPSs above .800 in 2023 and all of them are returning in 2024 with another year of experience under their belt. I believe the Atlanta Braves are currently the best team in the MLB, and unless the Rangers fix their pitching rotation, Atlanta will be your 2024 World Series Champions!
Honorable Mentions and Why I Left them Out:
MARINERS:
Aside from Rodriguez, nobody on their team had a slugging percentage above .456 in 2023. If you pitch around him, their lineup can’t do any damage.
RAYS, BLUE JAYS, TWINS, AND BREWERS:
These are all teams that lost in the early stages of the playoffs last year, so they already weren’t so good. Then they all lost key pieces this offseason and didn’t do a good enough job replacing them to compete with the young and talented, up-and-coming teams.
TB: Tyler Glasnow & Wander Franco.
TOR: Matt Chapman & Brandon Belt.
MIN: Sonny Gray & Jorge Polanco.
MIL: Corbin Burnes & Craig Counsell
PHILLIES:
Due to the Phillies being built perfectly for the MLB’s playoff scheduling format, there’s a common misconception that they’re good. The truth is that the Phillies haven’t won over 90 since 2011. They lost their closer Craig Kimbrel this offseason and didn’t add any big pieces, so there’s no reason to expect improvement.
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