Tier 5 - On Their Way Out:
Daniel Jones - After earning a large contract extension with a breakout 2022 season, 2023 couldn’t have gone much worse for Daniel Jones and the Giants. Jones missed all but 6 games with injuries. In those 6 games, Jones put up a 70.5 passer rating, only threw 2 touchdown passes, and the Giants went 1W-5L. Over this past offseason, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones’s safety blanket, left for the Eagles. There is an off chance that Jones will bounce back and show that his poor 2023 season was the outlier. However, it’s more likely that his strong 2022 season was the outlier and the Giants need to restart.
Geno Smith - In Geno Smith’s breakout season in 2022, he did a great job managing games and allowing the talent around him to do their thing. In 2023 Smith was slightly less efficient, his passer rating dropped from 100.9 to 92.1 and his completion percentage dropped from 69.8% to 64.7%. This drop caused the Seahawks' offense points per game to drop by 2.5 from 2022 to 2023. Because Smith is in his mid-30s, I believe that the regression is due to age. With the Seahawks struggling in the offensive line and bringing in a new coaching staff, I expected the Seahawks to draft a quarterback this past draft. Even though they didn’t manage to snag one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft, it’s only a matter of time until Smith is replaced. As I mentioned, Seattle has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Hence, I expect Smith to struggle with the lack of help in this upcoming season.
Derek Carr - A few years back, Derek Carr was a good quarterback. However, since he turned 30 in 2020, it’s been a slow but steady decline for Carr. From 2020 to 2021 his passer rating dropped by 7.4 points, and from 2021 to 2022 it dropped by 7.7 points, which led to the Raiders parting ways with their long-time quarterback. In the Saints system in 2023, Carr was slightly for efficient. His passer rating climbed by 11.4 but his touchdown rate and yards per game dipped. Pro Football Focus has the Saints' offensive line ranked dead last. Between that, Carr’s decline due to age, and the exciting reports coming from training camp about Spencer Rattler, I expect the Saints to build around Rattler. They will probably throw Carr out to the wolves this season, to build around the 23-year-old Rattler for the 2025 season.
Tier 4 - Dependent On the Supporting Cast:
Sam Darnold - I’ve expressed in multiple articles that I believe Sam Darnold will do this year, what Baker Mayfield did last year. He’s a young quarterback who was set up to fail in horrible systems with poor coaching and a lack of talent around him. With Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings, Sam Darnold will have an opportunity to become the quarterback he was supposed to be. He’ll be working behind an arguably top-10 offensive line and throwing to a great receiving core, consisting of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson. During his 2023 preseason with the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan compared his throwing ability to Steve Young. Darnold obviously isn’t Steve Young and won’t be a superstar. Nonetheless, if he can slightly lower his interception rate, the Vikings will be relevant in December and maybe even January. The Vikings will most likely move onto JJ McCarthy after this season, but I expect Darnold to play his way into a starting job elsewhere.
Bryce Young - Bryce Young’s rookie season in 2023 wasn’t pretty. However, that happens with young quarterbacks, especially when they don’t have talent around them. The Panthers were a hot mess in 2023 and improved a bit over the offseason. In accordance, with said improvement and Bryce Young's development moving forward, I expect Young to be somewhat better in 2024. Nonetheless, unless multiple players have major breakout seasons, I doubt Young will be able to carry Carolina to the playoffs. With that said Young still has multiple years left on his rookie deal and plenty of time to develop into Carolina’s franchise quarterback.
Caleb Williams - Some Bears fans expect Caleb Williams to show up and instantly turn their team into a Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like that in the NFL. As we saw in Williams’ sloppy performance in USC’s 48-20 loss to Notre Dame, Williams still has a lot of developing and learning to do. The incredible offense the Bears have assembled around him will most definitely help. Working behind an arguably top-10 line and throwing to a receiving core that consists of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet, is the dream scenario for a rookie quarterback. However, I lack faith in their head coach Matt Eberflus, and in their offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron. In accordance, not everything will be sunshine and lollipops for Caleb Williams in year 1 in Chicago.
Tier 3 - High Ceiling & Low Floor:
Baker Mayfield - The NFL counted Baker Mayfield out, and in 2023 he proved everyone wrong. On his way to earning a shiny 3-year 115-million-dollar contract, Baker had a career year and led Tampa Bay to a playoff win. He threw for career-highs in both passing yards and touchdowns and seemed to be a true leader with the ability to will his team to victory. There is still a chance that his successful 2023 was a fluke and that he’ll fall off in 2024. However, I believe that Baker found a home in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers brought back an almost identical offense and the NFC South is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. Baker was a game-winning drive away from taking the Buccaneers to the NFC championship game in his first year there. I’m excited to see what he can do in year 2.
Kyler Murray - After impressive campaigns in 2019, 2020, and 2021 Kyler Murray was supposed to be the future of the Cardinals’ franchise. Over the past two seasons, Kyler Murray has dealt with multiple injuries and setbacks. Murray has only played in 19 of 34 games, and the Cardinals have struggled without him. Even when he’s been on the field, Murray has struggled due to a lack of rhythm and consistency. Nevertheless, in the last three games of 2023, Arizona’s young offensive line began to play well and it led to Kyler Murray playing his best football. In those 3 games, Murray completed 71.7% of his passes and put up a 6-1 touchdown-interception ratio, leading to a 108.23 passer rating. The Cardinals picked up a new WR1, Marvin Harrison Jr. in this past draft. Between the way they finished the 2023 season and Murray’s new buddy, there’s a solid chance that this Cardinals offense will make some noise in 2024.
Jayden Daniels - Around the draft I was very high on Jayden Daniels. I believe that Daniels will be the most successful quarterback in the 2024 class. I love the way the Commanders revamped their coaching staff and offense this offseason. I’m excited to see what Kliff Kingsbury can do with the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. However, it’s probably going to take another year before Washington’s rebuild is complete. Even though they did fix a lot, there was more than a lot to fix. I still expect Daniels to be fun to watch and put up great numbers in his rookie year. While it’s unlikely, CJ Stroud and the Texans showed us that you never know when a franchise is going to pull a 180. After seeing the way Jayden Daniels turned around a struggling LSU program if anyone can instantly turn around a franchise, it’s Daniels.
Tier 2 - Franchise Quarterbacks:
Matthew Stafford - Matthew Stafford is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the NFL and I was extremely close to putting him in Tier 1. When healthy, Stafford is a top-5 quarterback in the NFL. He’s thrown for over 4,800 yards in 3 different seasons, 2 of which came before the 17th game was added. He’s also had 2 41-touchdown seasons. In his very first season with the Rams, Stafford went on one of the most impressive playoff runs I’ve ever seen. In a 4-game span, Stafford threw for 1,188 yards and 9 touchdowns, led 3 game-winning drives, and put up a 108.27 passer rating, on his way to lifting the Lombardi Trophy. He struggled with injuries in 2022 and the first half of 2023, then went on another incredible run in the latter half of last season. In his final 7 games of 2023, Stafford put up 270.7 yards and 2.28 touchdowns per game, for a passer rating of 104.54, and the Rams went 6W-1L. I couldn’t put him in Tier 1 because he’s injury-prone and he throws interceptions more frequently than most quarterbacks. Nonetheless, with the Rams bringing back an almost identical offense in 2023, I expect Stafford to put up a passer rating of 100+ all season long.
Dak Prescott - Ever since his award-winning rookie season in 2016, Dak Prescott seemingly does the same thing every year. He puts up MVP-caliber numbers and leads the Cowboys to a high seed, and then soils the bed in the playoffs and has to start over. In 2023, Dak finished top-3 in the NFL in completions, passing touchdowns, passing yards, and passer rating. After all of that, Dak and the Cowboys got blown out at home by the 7-seed Green Bay Packers in the WildCard round. In the regular season, Dak’s winning percentage is 64% and his passer rating is 99.0. However, in the playoffs, when it matters most, Dak’s winning percentage is 28.6% and his passer rating is 91.8. If Dak could only perform in the playoffs the way he does in the regular season, he would be on track to become a Hall of Famer. Unfortunately, that isn’t the reality, limiting Prescott to a Tier 2 quarterback.
Kirk Cousins - This past offseason, Kirk Cousins signed a massive 4-year 180-million-dollar contract with the Atlanta Falcons. While Kirk isn’t the flashiest player, he’s one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the NFL. Excluding seasons limited by injuries, Cousins has thrown for 4,000 yards in eight of his past nine seasons and 25 or more touchdowns in all nine. However, Kirk Cousins is a good consistent quarterback, but no more. That is because he struggles under the bright lights. Between primetime games and playoff games, Kirk Cousins has a 13W-23L record, compared to his 64W-47L-2T record in the regular season. Kirk will have a star-studded offense in Atlanta, consisting of Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Tyler Allgeier, and an arguable top-5 offensive line. Kirk is 35 years old and the Falcons have already drafted Michal Penix to replace him eventually. Hence, he has two or three years to go on a legacy-defining playoff run or be remembered as the solid quarterback who couldn’t win big games.
Jalen Hurts - Over the first 4 seasons of his career, Jalen Hurts has been a very successful quarterback. Hurts has a 34W-17L career record as a starter. Already at the young age of 26, he’s been to the Super Bowl and has experience under the brightest lights. However, during the Eagles’ late-season collapse in 2023, we saw that Hurts still isn’t the most efficient passer. He has a career completion percentage of 63.4% and has only put up a passer rating above 90 in one out of his four seasons. Hurts is a dynamic runner and is a threat both through the air and on the ground. While he has looked like an MVP-caliber player at times, his final 6 games of 2023 are concerning. In those 6 games, Hurts completed 61.1% of his passes for 1,161 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, for a total passer rating of 77.57. In accordance, the Eagles lost 5 of the 6 games. He’s clearly not a Tier 1 quarterback due to his inconsistency through the air.
Jared Goff - Jared Goff, the former first pick of the draft, is one of the most intriguing cases on this list. Goff’s rookie season was concerning, as he posted a 63.6 passer rating. However, when the Rams brought in offensive guru, Sean McVay, Goff’s career took off. In each of the following two seasons, Goff put up a passer rating above 100 and took the Rams to the Super Bowl in the latter one. Unfortunately, in said Super Bowl, Bill Belichick exposed Goff’s weaknesses and he fell off. In the next two years, Goff put up passer ratings of 86.5 and 90.0, and the Rams were slightly above average. A narrative began to grow that Goff was holding back McVay and the Rams. Therefore, it came to nobody’s surprise when the Rams dealt Goff and a handful of draft picks to the Lions in exchange for Matthew Stafford. When McVay, Stafford, and the Rams won the Super Bowl the following season, and Goff and the Lions struggled, the narrative was considered confirmed and most were ready to mark Goff as a bust. However, over the past two seasons, together with Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson, Goff has completely revamped his career and the Lions franchise. After getting off to a horrible 1W-6L start in 2022, Goff got hot and never cooled down. Over his last 27 games, Goff has completed 66.8% of his passes, for 263 yards per game, 1.74 touchdowns per game, only 0.48 interceptions per game, and a total passer rating of 100.04. In accordance, the Lions went 20W-7L in those 27 games. In this past season, Jared Goff led Detroit to their first playoff win since 1991 and then got them another one the very next week. He was one touchdown drive away from taking the Detroit Lions to the Super Bowl. After this magical playoff run, the Lions handed Goff a 4-year 212-million-dollar contract extension. This extension announced to the world that he is their franchise guy. Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are a heartwarming underdog story that has turned into a Super Bowl contender.
Tier 1 - Instant Contenders for the NFC Title:
Jordan Love - Packers fans were outraged when the Packers traded up to draft Jordan Love in the 2020 draft. I have a weird feeling that they’re not as upset about the pick anymore. After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for 3 years, Love finally got his opportunity as the starting quarterback in 2023. Love announced his arrival in a fashion. He put up 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, for a passer rating of 96.1. His efforts were enough to book the Packers a WildCard matchup with the 12W-5L Dallas Cowboys. In 2023, the Cowboys’ defense ranked top 5 in the NFL in terms of both yards and points. However, Jordan Love made them look silly. Love exploded for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns, on his way to leading the Packers’ offense to a 48-point showing and a blowout win. Even though Love and the Packers narrowly lost to the 49ers in the divisional round, Love’s 2023 season declared him as one of the best, if not the best quarterbacks in the NFC. This offseason, the Packers handed their 25-year-old signal caller a 4-year 220-million-dollar contract extension, matching Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence for the highest annual salaries in the NFL. Between the single year left on his current contract and the 4-year extension, the Packers have Love locked up through 2028. I cannot wait to see what Love and the Packers will accomplish over the next 5 seasons. I doubt they’ll walk away from the extension without at least one Super Bowl Appearance.
Brock Purdy - Brock Purdy, the last pick of the draft, might be the best story in sports in the past decade. In week 12 of the 2022 season, following injuries to multiple San Francisco quarterbacks, Brock Purdy got thrown into action. He got the job done and maintained the lead, allowing the 49ers to win. The very next week, Purdy made his first career start. The opposing quarterback was a man named Tom Brady. Purdy and the 49ers blew Brady and the Buccaneers out of the water, taking down the GOAT 35-7. Turns out that Brock Purdy’s skill set is the perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and the 49ers’ roster. The Brock Purdy train continued to roll and the 49ers continued to win until the NFC Championship game. In the first quarter of the NFC Championship game, mid-throw, Purdy was hit awkwardly in the arm and tore multiple muscles. The 49ers ended up losing the game and several questions were brought up regarding Purdy’s future: How will he recover? Was his success a fluke? Purdy answered all the questions by being even better in his sophomore season in 2023. In 16 games in the 2023 season, Purdy completed 69.4% of his passes for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, an NFL best passer rating of 113.0, and led the 49ers to the top seed in the NFC. San Francisco tore through the NFC playoffs and reached the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, Purdy and the 49ers suffered a heartbreaking loss in overtime. Nonetheless, led by Brock Purdy, the 49ers have the best roster in the NFC and will be back.
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