With the 2024 NFL season on the horizon, football fans have begun to imagine what different teams will look like this year. I took a look at FanDuel’s estimated win totals. I noticed that they did a poor job evaluating a few of the teams, and us betters can take advantage. Here are 4 bets that I believe will be guaranteed money:
Jacksonville Jaguars - 8.5 Wins: Under (-105)
In the latter half of the 2023 season, teams figured out how to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. After winning 6 of their first 8 games, Jacksonville lost 6 of their final 9 games and 5 of their final 6. The Jaguars' faithful will point to the fact that Trevor Lawrence was playing through an ankle injury, but I’m not buying it. If Lawrence’s injury was holding back the team that much, the Jaguars would’ve turned to their backup quarterback. In addition, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence who allowed 27 points per game from week 10 through week 16.
In addition, the Jaguars will not get many easy wins. Based on 2023 records, the Jaguars have the 8th most difficult schedule in the NFL. That’s not considering the fact that all 3 of their division rivals are expected to take a major step forward in 2024. The Texans added Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and Danielle Hunter. The Titans completely revamped their defense, added Tony Pollard, strengthened their offensive line, and stole Jacksonville’s top receiver, Calvin Ridley. The Colts are expected to have a healthy combination of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Meanwhile, Jacksonville did almost nothing to improve this offseason. They’re lacking a true wide receiver 1, and their defense is below average. The Jaguars might not be terrible, but it’s going to be very difficult for them to win more games than they lose. Hence, they’ll win less than 8.5 games.
Los Angeles Chargers - 8.5 Wins: Under (+188)
I believe that Jim Harbaugh will turn around the Chargers’ franchise, but it doesn’t happen overnight. Especially not with their current roster. In 2023, the Chargers were 5W-8L in games started by Justin Herbert, that’s a .384 winning percentage. Therefore, to win over 8.5 games, they’ll have to increase their winning percentage by .145. I doubt they’ll be able to do so after they scrapped their offense this offseason.
This past offseason, the Chargers cut ties with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett. They did do a solid job replacing one receiver by drafting Ladd McConkey but that won’t be enough. As much as I like McConkey, there’s a reason that he was the 10th pass catcher drafted. He’s not the type of guy who can take over a game. The weapons the Chargers are relying on around McConkey are Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Will Dissly. Gus Edwards is an aging running back who has never had a 900-yard season. JK Dobbins is an injury prone back who has suffered season-ending injuries in each of the last 3 years. Quentin Johnston is a young receiver who was greatly disappointing in his first year, catching only 38 of his 67 targets. Will Dissly is a career backup tight end, who has never eclipsed 350 yards in a season. Josh Palmer is a decent option for a wide receiver 3, but he’s never eclipsed 800 yards or 4 touchdowns in a season, he won’t carry the load.
Furthermore, the Chargers’ defense ranked 24th in points allowed in 2023. They didn’t do much to revamp their defense, I expect the unit to be pretty similar in 2024. Between not having nearly enough weapons on offense and their sub par defense, the Chargers will have a tough time competing in the stacked AFC. I don’t expect them to be very good this season, let alone win over 8.5 games. Betting on the under is free money.
Washington Commanders - 6.5 Wins: Over (-115)
The Washington Commanders were one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023, winning only 4 games. Nevertheless, I expect them to make a Houston Texans-like change in 2024. They had some solid pieces on offense, such as Brian Robinson and Terry McLaurin. Yet, their horrible offensive line held back the entire offense. They took care of that problem by bringing in 3 new starters on the offensive line. I doubt they’ll be great right away, but it’ll be a huge improvement from last season’s unit.
However, the reason I’m so excited about the Commanders is their passing game. They brought in Kliff Kingsbury to be their offensive coordinator. In both 2020 and 2021, Kingsbury led the Cardinals offense to being top-10 in the NFL in yards. I expect him to accomplish great things with his rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Not only was Jayden Daniels the best player in college football last year, winning the Heisman Trophy, but he also makes the players around him better. LSU was falling apart before Daniels transferred in. He then led them to consecutive 10-win seasons. Jayden Daniels is a hard worker and a leader. I expect him to lead the Washington Commanders back into relevance.
Jayden Daniels will get a bit of head start, due to the other teams in the NFC East falling apart. The Giants only won 6 games in 2023 and then lost Saquon Barkley. The Eagles lost 5 of their last 6 games, plus a wildcard loss to finish out 2023. They added Saquon but lost Jason Kelce. The Cowboys had a rough offseason and seem to be falling apart from within. Both of their offensive stars, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are in the midst of contact disputes. This is the perfect opportunity for the Commanders to take advantage of a weak division and have a bounce back year. It’s hard for me to imagine that they’ll make the playoffs, but they’ll make a run at it. Hence, the Washington Commanders will easily pass 6.5 wins.
Cleveland Browns - 8.5 Wins: Over (-138)
I find it ridiculous that the NFL community is acting as if the Browns didn’t win 11 games last year, with Watson and Chubb on the shelf. The Browns have a well rounded roster to begin with. Nick Chubb, one of the best running backs in the NFL is expected to be back at full strength this season. A back like Chubb running behind that offensive line, instantly makes any offense a problem.
Nonetheless, Nick Chubb isn’t the reason I think 8.5 wins is a laughable mark for the Browns. The reason is their quarterback, Deshaun Watson. Watson had a bad year in 2023 because he hadn’t played in a while and he was battling injuries. However, how could we forget how dominant he was in the first 4 years of his career?! Despite only playing in 6 games in 2017, Watson was a finalist for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. From 2018 through 2020, Watson was elected to the Pro Bowl every year. In that 3 year stretch, Watson put up 303 total yards (passing+rushing) per game and his touchdown to interception ratio was 3.03 to 1. Before he got into legal trouble, Deshaun Watson was a real life superhero. I believe that after having a down year in 2023 to knock off the rust, Watson will be back to form in 2024. If he is back to form, that type of quarterback playing behind that offensive line, with those weapons, is a scary thought. The AFC North is going to be the toughest division in the AFC, so it’s hard to say if the Browns will win the division or exactly how many games they’ll win. Nonetheless, I expect them to be well above .500 and make that 8.5 expected win total look silly.
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