Right now, the Indiana Pacers are averaging the most points per game in the NBA, not just for this year, but in NBA history! They average 126 points per game, while last place, the Portland Trailblazers, put up 104 points per game, which is LAST!! In 2003, 104 points per game would have been the best offense that season, beating the Dallas Mavericks with 103. If you didn’t understand the point, today’s offenses in the League are putting up crazy numbers, but the following question must be asked: Are the offenses good or the defenses bad?
I believe I have four reasons why scores are getting higher, and all four reasons prove why it’s neither great offense nor horrific defense.
Since 2003, a huge increase in the pace of games has occurred, where teams are putting up the most shots in NBA history. How? Why? I think it’s because of an increase in big men being able to bring the ball down the court, so, as soon as a team rebounds the ball, a fast break occurs and defense is quickly turning into offense; for example, Giannis Antetokounmpo, a 6ft 11in power forward, consistently brings down the ball for the Bucks because of his athleticism and strength to finish while driving downhill. In 2003, the team with the most attempted shots was Dallas, who put up 89 shots per game. Now, the Pacers hold that title, shooting 94 shots/game. Big difference, right? However, that still doesn’t explain everything, for the 2003 Mavericks would rank 19th in shot attempts this year, so how would they have the “worst offense”?
Anyone who’s been watching basketball for over a decade will agree that the defense’s ability to be aggressive and force offenders to certain situations/spots has decreased. I can go the easy route and blame it on the refs, for they have been more strict against defenders, and, of course, the huge rule change of a defender being able to hand check (putting a hand or arm on them to guide/stop them); I don’t want to do that though. Current players are significantly better at creating space and shotmaking, so, no matter how strong, fast, smart, and tall a defender is, the offense has gotten so much better than it used to be, and the defense can’t evolve.
However, regardless of the increased pace, the decrease in defensive aggression, and the fact that offensive bags are at an all-time high, the biggest reason for the crazy offensive stats is the 3pt. Revolution. In 2013, just 10 years ago, the team with the highest average 3-point shot attempts per game was the Houston Rockets, averaging 26.5 threes a game; nowadays, the team that shoots the smallest amount of threes a game is the Los Angeles Lakers, who average 29.5 threes a game; the most is Dallas with 42.9. That’s insane! The spacing in the NBA has forced teams to allow more shots in the paint, forfeit stronger defenders for quicker, longer defenders, and draft/give minutes to better shooters. Why does this boost the points per game average? A team that hits 3’s consistently is better than a team that hits 2’s consistently, as proven by Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. And as we know: 3 is more than 2.
Because the court has more spacing, there’s less physicality from defenders, offenders have increased their shotmaking ability, and the rules have changed more in favor of the offense, the increase in the number of points/game is inevitable. Also, defenses haven't evolved. So to answer the original question: “Are the offenses that good or the defenses that bad?” With all the information that I just gave you, I’ll let you figure that one out.
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