SOTO TRADE RUMORS:
Over the past couple of weeks, there has been some speculation about the Yankees potentially trading for the Padres’ superstar outfielder, Juan Soto. Soto is a well-rounded, left-handed hitter and is great with the glove in the outfield, exactly what the Yankees need. With Soto entering his last season of arbitration, before hitting free agency, now would be a logical time to trade him. However, a report came out last week saying that the Padres intend on trying to contend in Soto’s last year with the team, and if things don’t go as planned they will move Soto at the trade deadline next summer, but not now. Said report made me ask myself, are the Padres in a better spot to go all-in or to blow it up?
2022 TRADE DEADLINE:
To answer the question, let’s look back at the Padres' recent moves, starting at the 2022 trade deadline. In the summer of 2022, the Padres went all in by trading away Taylor Rodgers, Dinelson Lamet, Esteury Ruiz, Robert Gasser, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana, Robert Hassell, CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Luke Voit for only three players who can help them make a playoff run. Those players were 1B Josh Bell, closer Josh Hader, and of course the perennial superstar, Juan Soto.
2022-2023 OFFSEASON:
Bell, Hader, and Soto did their job to perfection and helped lead the Padres to an NLCS appearance. Had it not been for the MLB suspending Fernando Tatis the Padres may have gone on to win it all in 2022. With Tatis’s return on the horizon, the Padres were expected to be championship contenders in 2023. In an attempt to start a dynasty, the Padres looked to sign a big-time superstar to a long contract. Unfortunately (maybe fortunately), San Diego missed out on the top two free agents, Trea Turner and reigning MVP Aaron Judge, yet they were able to sign the number three guy, Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year 280-million-dollar deal. Soto, Tatis, and Bogaerts weren’t the only promising players on the Padres. San Diego also had two up-and-coming young stars in Jake Cronenworth and Austin Nola, along with future Hall-of-Fame 3B Manny Machado, and don’t forget their loaded pitching rotation. The Padres wanted to solidify their core and decided to sign their best player, Manny Machado to an 11-year 350-million-dollar contract extension. The peak of the hype came at the Padres’ fan-fest last February. During a Q&A, the Padres’ core four of Machado, Tatis, Soto, and Bogaerts promised their fans a world championship.
THE 2023 SEASON
San Diego’s 2023 season was derailed by several injuries and a couple of players underperforming, exposing the team’s complete lack of depth. The Padres finished the season 13th in the MLB in runs scored and had the second-lowest ERA in the league, yet somehow only won 82 games and fell two wins shy of making the playoffs. The stats suggest that the Padres should be a top 10 team yet they barely finished with a winning record. Following the early end of the team’s season, the front office cut ties with manager, Bob Melvin.
MAJOR ISSUES:
However, firing Melvin was too little and too late. The Padres' lack of success lowered fans’ interest and caused their revenue from ticket and merchandise sales to plummet. As the season came to its conclusion, the Padres were forced to take out a 50-million-dollar loan to allow them to pay their players’ final checks of 2023. No professional team should ever allow themselves to be in a situation where they can’t afford to pay their players, especially not a team that willingly took on a 147-million-dollar payroll, 34 million above league average.
The Padres narrowly missed the playoffs in 2023 and have to either improve now or start over. The two best pitchers on the Padres, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, hit free agency this offseason and based on the teams’ financial situation there’s no way the Padres can afford to re-sign them. Along with Hader and Snell, two more solid Padres pitchers, Nick Martinez and Drew Pomeranz will become free agents this offseason (Pomeranz hasn’t pitched since 2021). Based on the fact that they will be losing Hader, Martinez, and Snell, the Padres probably won’t be better next year, so they should rebuild. The issue is that 3 out of their 4 best-remaining trading pieces are under contract for at least the next four years. With the Padres already in depth there I strongly doubt they can afford to pay these mega-contracts without having the players actually play for them (the “big-name” players usually increase merchandise and ticket sales and help the team financially in a couple of additional smaller ways as well). Therefore, rebuilding isn’t an option either.
The report that the Padres aren’t interested in trading away Soto before the 2024 season implies that they’ve chosen to try to improve ahead of the 2024 season. The Padres don’t have much money to work with but here’s how I see it:
MY PLAN IF I WAS THE PADRES’ GM:
The team’s largest issue in 2023 was lack of depth, as only five batters on the team had an above 230 batting average. The best way to immediately acquire more role players would be calling up their mature prospects and trading away the raw ones for proven veterans. That isn’t a possibility because San Diego traded away the top guys in their farm system, such as CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore at the 2022 deadline. The only guy they can call up to make an immediate impact is their second-ranked prospect, Jackson Merrill. Merrill is a shortstop but his secondary position is left field. If either Merril or Soto can shift over to center, Merrill would be a great replacement for Trent Grishom. In 153 games in center in 2023, Grishom batted under 200 and didn’t add much power either with only 13 home runs.
With the departure of Hader, Snell, Martinez, Pomeranz, and Grishom the Padres cut roughly 55 million dollars off their payroll. The Padres should use some of the money to sign a handful of consistent players to replace the production of Hader, Martinez, and Snell. Having a more well-rounded team rather than just a couple of stars will benefit the Padres because it won’t be all lost if one or two players get hurt or underperform. In addition, signing these shorter contracts will give them a plan for the future. This short-term fix will result in one of three outcomes:
The ideal option - If the Padres become a good team, via merchandise and ticket sales they will be able to get back on their feet financially.
The realistic option - Thanks to the new MLB playoff format, teams only have to win 85-90 games to qualify for a wildcard spot. If the role players can help the Padres slightly improve, they can get by as a wildcard-level team until their stars near the ends of their contracts allowing the Padres to rebuild.
The “Plan B” option - If the Padres aren’t good in 2024, they will be able to trade away Soto and their new signings for a handful of new prospects. Hopefully, those prospects will be ready in two or three years and can come up and complement the Padres’ current stars, creating a great roster.
THE 2024 OFFSEASON:
Signing “proven role players” is easier said than done. Here’s a couple of players I would try to acquire as the Padres’ GM and why:
*It’s important to note that I would focus on left-handed bats because six of our planned starters are right-handed.
1B/LF Brandon Belt (age 35). Belt is a left-handed career 261 hitter, 32 points higher than the Padres 1B in 2023, Jake Cronenworth. Belt also brings a veteran presence as he has won two world series and can show the clubhouse what it takes to win and the right approach. He can also add depth to the outfield, by playing a couple of games in left if necessary. Belt is old and has been a bit inconsistent, so he won’t get any long-term contract offers from other teams.
MY OFFER: 2 YEARS - 20 MILLION DOLLARS (10Mil average)
3B/SS/1B Gio Urshela (age 30). Urshela is a career 277 hitter who can play gold glove-caliber defense almost anywhere in the infield. Between Urshela’s and Ha-Seong Kim’s versatility, the Padres would have unlimited flexibility regarding their lineup. Urshela is coming off an injury-riddled season, in which he only played 62 games, so now would be a perfect time to buy low.
MY OFFER: 3 YEARS - 25 MILLION DOLLARS (8.33Mil average)
C Ben Rortvedt (age 26). Ben Rortvedt was once a highly regarded catching prospect with the ability to hit the cover off the ball from the left side of the plate. Due to injuries and Jose Trevino having a breakout 2022 season, Rortvedt was never able to get comfortable as a Yankee. His batting average in 2023 is a concern but rookie season batting averages should be seen with a grain of salt, many players have trouble with contact in their debut season. Aaron Judge batted 167 in his debut season and Mike Trout batted 220 in his. The Yankees have three other major league-level catchers and would be glad to get rid of Rortvedt. Meanwhile, the Padres' current catcher, Austin Nola only bats 119 against right-handers. Acquiring Rortvedt to play most of the games against right-handed pitchers would benefit Nola as well.
TRADE OFFER: 1B/2B JAKE CRONENWORTH + RHP VICTOR LIZARRAGA
S RHP Frankie Montas (age 30). Frankie Montas was one of the top pitchers in baseball in his first 19 starts of 2022 before being traded to the Yankees and falling apart. Montas missed practically all of 2023 due to an injury, now is the perfect time to buy low. It is common for players to go to New York and fold under the pressure. For example, Sonny Gray who was one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season with a 2.79 ERA, had a 4.51 ERA as a Yankee. If Frankie Montas is the next Sonny Gray, the Padres are going to love to have him.
MY OFFER: 2 YEARS - 17 MILLION DOLLARS (8.5Mil average)
S RHP Jack Flaherty (age 28). Flaherty is in a similar situation to Montas. Recently switched teams and wasn’t as good on the second team, his career has also been held back by injuries. In 2023 Flaherty finally had his first full season since 2019. In 2019 Flaherty went 11-8 while striking out 231 batters and pitching for a 2.75 ERA. If he stays healthy he may be a strikeout machine.
MY OFFER: 1 YEAR - 5 MILLION DOLLARS
R RHP Jordan Hicks (age 27). Jordan Hicks is one of the hardest-throwing relievers in the game. Hicks’ incredible velocity gives him a high ceiling and also strikes fear in the opposing lineup. Both elements would be a great fit for the back end of San Diego's bullpen. Hicks has struggled since sitting out of the 2020 season due to covid-19 and has been working his way back ever since. In 2023 his ERA dropped 1.55 points down to 3.29 and I believe it’ll only continue dropping.
MY OFFER: 3 YEARS - 10 MILLION DOLLARS (3.33Mil average)
R LHP Drew Pomeranz (age 34). Drew Pomeranz hasn’t pitched in two years, therefore most teams will be very skeptical about signing him, but the Padres know he fits in their system. Bringing back Pomeranz on a short-term “prove it” deal would be beneficiary for both sides. Pomeranz’s life is already located in San Diego.
MY OFFER: 2 YEARS - 10 MILLION DOLLARS (5Mil average)
If the Padres can get 5 of the 7 players listed I believe they can win over 85 games in 2024. Worst case scenario they can get prospect value from trading away some of those guys. If they were to make all of the moves above, San Diego’s estimated payroll in 2024 would be 132 million dollars, 15 million less than in 2023. If that’s the most expensive the team could be, they’ll be in much better shape than the current situation. Here’s a quick look at what the lineup would look like:
2B R Ha-Seong Kim 260/351/398
CF L Juan Soto 275/410/519
3B R Manny Machado 258/319/462
RF R Fernando Tatis 257/322/449
DH L Brandon Belt 254/369/490
SS R Xander Bogaerts 285/350/440
1B R Gio Urshela 299/329/374
C L Ben Rortvedt 118/241/221
LF L Jackson Merrill 277/326/444 (A+/AA)
Click here for reference from the title: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxHxwVSROKc
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