With three weeks remaining until the MLB trade deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies stand at the top of the MLB with the best record in baseball. However, the Phillies have had great teams in the past two seasons and fell short in the late stages of the playoffs both times. In 2022, they lost to the Houston Astros in the World Series; in 2023, they lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS. I assume Philadelphia is eager to ensure they won’t fall short again by completing their roster at the upcoming trade deadline. Therefore, I found the largest holes in their roster. Based on that, I searched for players who would be available at the deadline will address Philadelphia’s weaknesses. They do have a great roster and none of the holes are too gaping, but I did find a few:
HOLE 1A: Outfield Production
Between Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber no longer being outfielders, the Phillies have become a bit short in the outfield. Brandon Marsh is the only outfielder on their roster who has been productive at the plate. Marsh has a .759 OPS, Nick Castellanos is at .689, and everyone else is well below the league average. They need to add one or two good hitters in the outfield.
HOLE 1B: Lineup Diversity
Having diversity throughout the entire lineup is critical in the playoffs. If a hitter has a weakness in his game, it’s not the end of the world, unless the pitcher’s strength plays to it. There is only one way to prevent the opponent from bringing in pitchers to beat said weakness. It’s to have other batters behind him, who are strong in the area where the first batter is weak.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a discipline issue at the plate. If it was one or two hitters it wouldn’t be such a big issue. However, that is far from the case. Out of the 10 Phillies with the most plate appearances this season, 6 are between the 4th and 41st percentiles in chase%, 7 are between the 5th and 45th percentiles in whiff%, and 6 are between the 6th and 46th percentiles in strikeout%. They have an issue. If they acquire outfielders, they must make sure these outfielders are disciplined hitters. It’s worth noting that 3 of their 5 best hitters are left-handed. Hence, it would be better to add a right-handed bat than another left-handed one.
HOLE 2: Blow Saves
The Phillies’ pitching staff has an ERA of 3.23 as a whole. However, if you isolate the bullpen, their ERA is a bit worse, at 3.46. The backend of Philadelphia’s bullpen has blown 14 saves and only held on in 64% of their save opportunities. If you’re holding on less than two-thirds of the time you enter the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or fewer, you won’t beat the top teams in October. Part of the issue is that Philadelphia has a bit of a shortage of right-handed relief pitchers. This shortage has forced them to put Seranthony Dominguez into 33 games, despite his high 4.11 ERA. A simple fix would be acquiring one or two right-handed relief pitchers with sub-3 ERAs.
HOLE 3: Injuries
As of the first week of July, 3 key parts of the Phillies’ lineup are on the 10-day Injured List. The 3 are their starting catcher JT Realmuto, their designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, and the face of their franchise, first baseman Bryce Harper. All 3 have OPSs well above league average and played big roles in their playoff runs in 2022 and 2023. All 3 are expected to be back well before October, in time for the playoffs. Nonetheless, we never know what happens with these injuries, they can suffer setbacks or be reaggravated. Therefore, while it shouldn't be prioritized, it would be wise for Philadelphia to look for a solid hitter who can fill in at DH and either catcher or first. Since two of the three are left-handed, ideally the replacement should be left-handed as well.
5. 1B L Rowdy Tellez:
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been struggling as of late and are slipping further and further out of the wildcard race. In accordance, they’re becoming more and more likely to trade their veterans who are up for new contracts. Amongst those veterans, is Rowdy Tellez, who is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Tellez is a left-handed hitting first baseman. Hence, he will be a great substitute at DH or first, if Harper or Schwarber (both left-handed) aren’t back soon. In addition, Tellez is in the 66th percentile in whiff% and the 71st in chase%. Making him a great option to add diversity to Philadelphia’s lineup. Even though Philly is most likely set at DH and first, bringing in Tellez can save their season.
4. RHP Dylan Floro:
In the 43 innings he’s pitched this year, Washington’s Dylan Floro has been unhittable. Set to hit free agency at the end of the season, Floro’s 1.87 ERA will make him a lot of money. With Washington falling to 12th place in the National League, it’s become likely that they trade Floro for prospects who will help them years down the line. Floro would be the perfect plug for the Phillies’ Seranthony Dominguez issue if the Nationals and Phillies weren’t division rivals. Since the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals in 2005, the teams have only made 8 trades.
3. RHP Yimi Garcia & Trevor Richards:
The Toronto Blue Jays are in 12th place in the AL, 8.5 games out of a wildcard spot, and dead last in the AL East. Their biggest issue has been their bullpen. Toronto’s bullpen has a 4.83 ERA, 2nd-worst in the entire MLB. To make matters even worse, 2 of their 3 best relief pitchers, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards will become unrestricted free agents at the end of this season. Garcia has a 2.57 ERA in 25 innings pitched, and Richards has a 3.06 ERA in 47 innings pitched. Either one is a great fit for the Phillies bullpen and can fit in perfectly as the missing right-handed reliever. If the Phillies face a right-handed batter in a critical situation in the playoffs, bringing Garcia or Richards out of the pen would be a much more comfortable and confident move than bringing in Dominguez.
2. LF/RF R Mark Canha:
Between Spencer Torkelson’s struggles and injuries to Kerry Carpenter and Casey Mize, the 2024 Detroit Tigers team hasn’t had the breakout season I expected. As their odds of making the playoffs fade, it becomes more and more logical for them to trade Mark Canha. Canha will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and is a great fit for Philadelphia’s lineup. As I mentioned above, the Phillies need a productive right-handed bat in the outfield, and they also need a disciplined hitter for lineup diversity. Mark Canha can play both right and left field and will help with both needs, killing two birds with one stone. Canha is a right-handed outfielder with a career .764 OPS. He’s having a down year in Detroit, but I believe that his .671 OPS is a product of the lack of dangerous hitters around him. In addition, he has good metrics in all of the areas of Philadelphia’s struggles. Canha is in the 61st percentile in strikeout%, 62nd percentile in whiff%, and the 89th percentile in chase%. In last night’s 5-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies’ outfielders went 3/14 with 6 strikeouts. Replacing one of them with Mark Canha would easily improve the feel of the entire lineup.
1. CF R Tommy Pham:
The Chicago White Sox have the worst record in the MLB and are on pace to lose 117 games. Therefore, at the upcoming trade deadline, they’re expected to restart by trading away all of their veterans for as many prospects as they can get. One of those veterans is outfielder Tommy Pham. Pham is a right-handed hitter who can play anywhere in the outfield and will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. As I mentioned twice, the Phillies need a productive right-handed bat in the outfield, and they also need a disciplined hitter for lineup diversity. Pham provides both, even better than Canha. Pham’s .712 OPS would round out Philadelphia’s lineup very nicely. Pham is one of the most disciplined hitters in the MLB. He’s in the 55th percentile in strikeout%, the 64th percentile in whiff rate, and the 96th percentile in chase%. He would be the perfect lineup protection for someone like Nick Castellanos who is in the 5th percentile in chase%. Having the right-handed Pham and Castellanos clicking, would be great to put between the left-handed bats of Harper, Marsh, and Schwarber. Having those 5 clicking, would force opponents to pitch more aggressively to the dangerous bats of Alec Bohm and Trea Turner. The entire lineup would come together and each batter would work off the next. In my opinion, adding Tommy Pham will make the Philadelphia Phillies World Series favorites.
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