10. HOUSTON ASTROS (-):
The Joe Espada era in Houston got off to a rough start. The Astros weren’t good for the first month of the 2024 season. However, since May 9th, they’ve been surging. Since their May 9th turnaround, the Houston Astros are 43W-27L. After the trade deadline, the Astros are standing at 55W-51L, and only 1 game behind the first-place Seattle Mariners. The Astros’ offense has a collective OPS of .739, 9th-best in the MLB, and clearly not the problem. On the pitching side, Houston’s bullpen has an ERA of 3.71, also 9th-best in the MLB. However, their rotation has struggled, dragging their team ERA up to 4.02, the 15th-best in the MLB. Hence, they needed to improve their rotation at the deadline. Houston did exactly so by acquiring Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays. While Kikuchi’s 4.75 ERA isn’t impressive, he’s knocking Spencer Arrighetti and his 5.58 ERA out of the rotation. Houston did a great job patching up a weakness.
9. SEATTLE MARINERS (Previously Unranked):
Before the season began, many analysts saw the Mariners as one of the top teams in the AL, due to their incredible rotation. However, I was concerned about their lineup. They relied too much on Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh to carry the load. Lineup protection cannot be overlooked! Not only do bad hitters create easy outs in their at-bats, but they also allow pitchers not to challenge the surrounding hitters. Sure enough, Julio Rodriguez struggled due to not seeing many pitches over the plate. He became frustrated and began to expand the zone, putting himself in the 6th percentile in chase rate. His OPS dropped to a career-low .687 before he was placed on the 10-day IL earlier this month. At the trade deadline, the Mariners addressed their gapping hole by acquiring Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. Both Arozarena and Turner are powerful right-handed hitters with OPSs well above-league average. The two combined, have 59 extra-base hits this season. Pitchers can no longer hand Rodriguez walks because Arozarena and Turner will drive in runners from first base. As a result, Rodriguez will see many more pitches over the plate and will once again be that same hitter who posted a .853 OPS in 2022. The Mariners are currently 56W-52LL, just holding on to first place in the AL West. Seattles’ pitching staff already has the best ERA in the MLB at 3.47. If these new bats get their offense rolling, they can be that top-tier team the analysts expected them to be.
8. ATLANTA BRAVES (-1):
Seeing the way Atlanta’s season has unfolded saddens me. The Braves were my preseason pick to win the World Series. Unfortunately, their two best players, Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider, suffered season-ending injuries. The Braves’ roster is so outstanding that they’ll be able to make some noise in the playoffs even without Acuna and Strider. However, they’re still only a shell of the team they could’ve been. It’s been especially bad as of late, as Atlanta has lost 14 of their last 24 games. This rough stretch has dropped their record down to 56W-49L. Atlanta is still holding on to the top WildCard spot in the NL, but a small losing streak can boot them out of the playoff picture.
7. SAN DIEGO PADRES (+2):
The San Diego Padres have surged out of nowhere to become one of the most entertaining teams in the MLB. After they lost a handful of their best players this past offseason, I expected 2024 to be a tough year in San Diego. Nevertheless, the Padres are sitting at 58W-51L and hold an NL WildCard spot. As I mentioned in my last power rankings, there have been four unexpected difference-makers for the Padres. Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez, who were last-minute additions to the team via trades, have been outstanding. However, Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar have been the X-factors. The rookie, Merrill, and the veteran, Profar, have been the team's two best hitters. Since Merrill was San Diego’s top prospect, the only surprise is that he’s producing so soon. On the contrary, Profar has been around the league since 2013 and hasn’t once surpassed an OPS of .800. Out of nowhere, Profar is putting up a .882 OPS so far this season, making him the 15th-best hitter in baseball.
Understanding that they’re in a great position to make an unexpected playoff run, the Padres front office got to work at the trade deadline. One of the most important factors in a playoff run is having 2 or 3 bullpen arms who can be called upon in high-leverage situations. The Padres already had two great arms in the pen, Adrian Morejon (2.74 ERA) and All-Star closer Robert Suarez (1.51 ERA). They turned their bullpen into a weapon by acquiring the prized reliever of the deadline, Tanner Scott (1.18 ERA), from the Miami Marlins. I believe that the long-term assets they gave up weren’t worth Scott. Nevertheless, the addition of Scott does make the Padres’ bullpen one of the best in baseball.
6. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (-):
The Milwaukee Brewers have proved the doubters wrong all season. By relying on their young bats, the Brewers have found themselves at 61W-45L and in first place in the NL Central. William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Chourio, and Brice Turang are all in their early or mid-20s and have all significant contributions with their bats. The Brewers’ collective OPS of .732 is 11th-best in the MLB and their team ERA of 3.74 is 6th-best. In addition, their ERA is about to get even better. Their closer, Devin Williams was activated off the IL earlier this week. Williams was an All-Star and posted sub-2 ERAs in both 2022 and 2023. He suffered an injury in his very first appearance of the 2024 season, but now he’s back and to continue to dominate. Along with the return of Williams, the Brewers acquired Frankie Montas from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline. In recent years, Montas has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. When Montas is right, he’s a lights-out starter who can be a weapon in the playoffs. The Brewers have two months to get Montas there. If they do so successfully, watch out!
5. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-2):
In a debate video that we posted on March 22nd, I pointed out that despite their good results, the Phillies offense has some major issues. They had 4 hitters in the bottom 31% in strikeout rate, 3 in the bottom 22% in walk rate, 3 in the bottom 30% in chase rate, and 2 in the bottom 8% in whiff rate. I claimed that when they face pitchers who know how to induce swings outside of the zone and produce swings-and-misses, their lineup will be in peril. At the time, the Phillies were 36W-14L and in possession of the best record in baseball. Since then, the Phillies are 29W-28L, very average. While the fact that Harper and Schwarber both missed time could be brought up as an excuse, it hasn’t made a difference. They’ve both been active since July 9th, and the Phillies are 7W-9L in that stretch. The Phillies have a great pitching staff and are a good team. Nonetheless, they’re far from the top-tier team that some think they are.
4. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (+1):
The Cleveland Guardians are currently 65W-42L and hold the top record in the MLB. While they’re a great team, I’ve been concerned all season by their lack of depth. The Guardians are an incredibly front-heavy team. The first 4 batters in their lineup, Steven Kwan (.883 OPS), Jose Ramirez (.856 OPS), David Fry (.839 OPS0, and Josh Naylor (.792 OPS) are terrifying. Yet, behind them, nobody has an OPS above .670 or a batting average above .250. That lineup is great, but it won’t win a 7-game series against any of the top teams in the league. On the pitching side, while their bullpen is the best in baseball, their rotation is concerningly thin. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively both have ERAs slightly under 3.5. However, the rest of their starters’ ERAs are all at 4.5 and above. They did add Alex Cobb and his 3.85 career ERA, at the trade deadline. Nonetheless, Cobb is currently recovering from hip surgery. Hip surgery tends to have a lasting effect on older players. Hence, the 36-year-old Cobb is anything from a sure thing. If Cobb pitches well when he comes back and a few of the Guardians’ secondary bats get hot at the right time, Cleveland can find themselves in the World Series. Unfortunately, too many pieces have to fall perfectly into place for them to be considered the favorites in the American League.
3. NEW YORK YANKEES (+1):
While the Yankees’ great start to the season was entertaining, we all knew that we couldn’t declare them World Series favorites until their mid-June test. They faced a relatively easy schedule to start the year, and then, starting June 7th, the Yankees faced the Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, and Orioles. That difficult stretch would be the true test. Unfortunately, between them losing most of those games and Giancarlo Stanton hitting the 10-day IL, the Yankees’ spirits were broken. The morale was down and it had a major impact on their play. The Yankees entered the stretch at 45W-19L. From June 7th until the All-Star break, the Yankees went 13W-21L.
Between the break and the trade deadline, the Yankees traded for Jazz Chisholm from the Miami Marlins. Jazz is only a slightly above-average player. Hence, he wasn’t expected to be a major difference-maker. Nonetheless, between Jazz’s arrival and Giancarlo Stanton's return from the IL, it was exactly what the Yankees needed to jump-start their offense. In 10 games since the All-Star break, the Yankees have put up an outrageous 7.1 runs per game! In addition, the Yankees are expected to call up their top prospect, switch-hitting outfielder Jasson Dominguez. Dominguez was incredible in his 8 games in the big leagues in 2023. Between Dominguez being a switch hitter and Jazz being able to play 6 different positions, the Yankees will have endless flexibility with their lineup. This allows them to give themselves the advantage against any pitcher, right-handed or left-handed. With that said, it is concerning that New York didn’t add a first baseman, a starter, or any relievers outside of Mark Leiter. With Juan Soto becoming a free agent at the end of the season, I would’ve liked to see the Yankees do more to capitalize on what might be their best opportunity in years to win their 28th World Series. They’re relying on Clarke Schmidt and Effross to pitch well when they return from the IL. It may pay off in October, and it might come back to bite them, only time will tell.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-1);
This past offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers assembled a super-team. They by far have the best roster in the MLB. They arguably have 5 of the top 30 hitters in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Will Smith. On the pitching side, they have 5 elite starters, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May. Furthermore, they have 3 unhittable relievers, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson, and Blake Treinen. Nevertheless, they haven’t been the best team in baseball, because of the injury bug. 5 of the 13 mentioned players are on the IL and aren’t returning anytime soon. The Dodgers’ roster is so deep that they’re a contender even without them. They are my favorite to win the National League. For me to call the Dodgers the World Series favorites, I need to see at least 2 of the 5 injured players return to action.
1. BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+1):
The Baltimore Orioles might be assembling the Avengers. The Orioles already stand at 63W-44L and are in first place in the competitive AL East. They already had a scary lineup with 7 hitters posting an OPS north of .750. Meanwhile, their pitching staff, led by Cy Young candidate Corbin Burns, already has a 3.79 ERA, tied for 9th-best in baseball.
Despite all of that, their front office felt the need to make many improvements at the trade deadline. They added Zach Eflin to their rotation, Gregory Soto and Trevor Rodgers, to their bullpen, and Eloy Jimenez to their lineup. The addition of Eflin completes Baltimore an incredible 1-4 playoff rotation rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Suarez, and Zach Eflin. Those four will be nearly impossible to take down in a 7-game series. Meanwhile, the addition of Eloy Jimenez rounds out Baltimore’s lineup very nicely. The only thing that their lineup somewhat lacked was power against right-handed pitching. Their two home run leaders, Henderson and Santander have hit 45 homers against lefties and only 14 against righties. While Jimenez has struggled with injuries in recent years, he has shown the ability to hit 24 long balls against righties in a single season. Jimenez is a right-handed hitter who is in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. Between these additions to their rotation and lineup, it’s hard for me to imagine any team beating the Orioles in the playoffs. That means a lot coming from a Yankee fan.
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