This past offseason we witnessed the signing of two of the most shocking contracts in NFL history. The Jaguars gave Trevor Lawrence a 5-year deal worth 275 million dollars, and the Cowboys gave Dak Prescott a 4-year deal worth 240 million dollars. In my opinion, both quarterbacks were extremely overpaid.
The quarterback position is undoubtedly the most important position on a football team. A team may live or die, excel or collapse, or thrive or fall based on its quarterback's performance. As we’ve seen regarding Brady and Mahomes, specific quarterbacks can be the key to a dynasty. Some quarterbacks make their teams Super Bowl contenders simply by being listed on the roster. Nonetheless, while there are very few of said quarterbacks, many quarterbacks have recently received mega-contracts. In my opinion, outside of the elite quarterbacks who make their teams instant contenders, there is no reason to spend over 10% of the team’s cap space on the starting quarterback.
The Numbers:
As of 2024, 20 of the 32 NFL teams pay their starting quarterback above 10 million dollars per year. Out of the 20 teams, only 9 have winning records. On the flip side, out of the 12 teams paying their quarterback under 10 million dollars, 7 have winning records. I did say that the quarterbacks who instantly turn their teams into Super Bowl contenders are worth the money. I would say that 4 teams’ quarterbacks fall under the previously mentioned definition of “elite quarterbacks who make their teams instant contenders”. Those 4 are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. If we exclude those 4, we are left with 16 teams paying their starting quarterback above 10 million dollars, and 12 teams paying their quarterback under 10 million dollars. While 6 out of the 16 have winning records, 7 of the 12 have winning records. Hence, I believe that if you aren’t looking at an elite quarterback, there is no reason to overspend on him. While there are 16 quarterbacks paid 40 million dollars or more per year, most teams paying their starting quarterbacks under 10 million dollars have been winning. I assume that it’s because they’re using the 30 million dollars on their supporting casts and that improves their rosters much more than a good but not-elite quarterback would.
The NFL salary cap currently stands at 255.5 million dollars. 19 teams pay starting quarterbacks above 30 million dollars per year. While only 8 of those 19 teams have winning records, 8 of the remaining 13 teams have winning records. In accordance, I think 30 million dollars is a good mark. 30 million dollars represents 11.74% of the 255.5 million dollar salary cap. There are 53 players on an NFL roster, 1.88% or 4.59 million dollars would be an equal split. Therefore, unless this player will single-handedly win your team the Super Bowl, it’s outrageous to spend over 11.74% of the salary cap on one player.
The Reasoning:
None of the numbers mentioned above are very complicated, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure them out. Nonetheless, 15 NFL teams chose to give over 30 million dollars to quarterbacks who aren’t elite. If the numbers so obviously show that it doesn’t work, why would these organizations run by statisticians and football geniuses keep on doing it? That’s because they’re afraid of getting stuck without serviceable quarterback play. The Jaguars didn’t want to give 55 million dollars per year to a quarterback who only wins 40% of his games, and the Cowboys didn’t want to give 60 million dollars per year to a quarterback who has a 2W-5L record in the playoffs. They were simply scared of ending up like the Broncos or Jets who haven’t had serviceable quarterback play in a decade.
The obvious follow-up question is why they don’t trust their ability to find a decent replacement. That’s because drafting a quarterback has become a shot in the dark. Since the 2019 draft, the quarterbacks have been hitting less and less. Between the 2019 draft, the 2020 draft, the 2021 draft, and the 2022 draft, 13 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. Out of the 13, only 7 are still with the team that drafted them, and only 3 have winning records. Not enough time has passed to judge the classes of the 2023 and 2024 drafts. Nonetheless, it’s safe to say that in recent drafts, drafting a quarterback has been very risky. This is discouraging teams from building around young signal callers, and encouraging them to overpay their established quarterbacks.
In August, at the fanatics convention, I heard Tom Brady discuss the matter. Brady believes that both on the college level and in the NFL, quarterbacks are no longer being developed properly. On the college level, it’s because of the transfer portal. Since the transfer portal began in October of 2018 (months before the 2019 NFL draft), quarterbacks have had the option to get up and leave. In accordance, coaches have been “tippy-toeing” around their star quarterbacks. Occasionally the coaches have to make decisions for the quarterback’s good, which he might not like, such as a redshirt freshman year, or intense training. Without these decisions, the quarterbacks aren’t developing properly. Brady said: "There used to be college programs, Now, there are college teams.” He added that the introduction of NIL has only made the situation worse. Meanwhile, in the NFL, teams are seeing how drafting Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Jackson completely turned around their teams, and are trying to replicate that. The issue is that rookie quarterbacks need the proper environment to develop. Mahomes had Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Burrow struggled before having one of the top receiving cores in the league. Allen had Brian Daboll, Stefon Diggs, and a great offensive line. Jackson had John Harbaugh, Greg Roman, Joe Flacco, and the best running game in the league. Throwing Zach Wilson into a dumpster fire run by Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur, with no weapons and a terrible offensive line, is not the same! As good as the quarterback might be, the proper environment must be built first, or else he may never reach his potential greatness.
The Future:
As we’ve seen from the 2024 draft class so far, there is a way to correct these issues. It’s a simple emphasis on correcting the issues mentioned above. Teams should draft quarterbacks with much college experience, such as Bo Nix (61 games) and Jayden Daniels (55 games). Teams should allow quarterbacks to sit and learn before being thrown into action, such as Michael Penix and Drake Maye. Teams should make sure to build a good roster around their quarterback before drafting him, such as the way the Bears hired a new offensive coordinator and acquired DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and D’Andre Swift before drafting Caleb Williams. When teams make sure to do at least 2 of these 3 measures, it minimizes busts. Drafting a quarterback will never be a sure thing, but it doesn’t have to be a 50/50 or a shot in the dark the way it has been in recent years.
In addition, teams can look at draft busts from recent years, and based on who failed due to poor development, they can pick up cheap quarterbacks with a lot of untapped potential. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the Seahawks pick Geno Smith for 3.5 million dollars, the Buccaneers pick up Baker Mayfield for 4 million dollars, and the Vikings pick up Sam Darnold for 10 million dollars. All 3 were quarterbacks who were written off as busts and ended up performing well for their new teams. In my opinion, Justin Fields will be the next to make such a comeback.
Between these two solutions, it will become easier to find serviceable quarterbacks and the market for good but not-elite quarterbacks will crash. The difference between the 10th-best quarterback and the 25th-best quarterback will almost disappear. The quarterbacks who make their teams Super Bowl contenders simply by being listed on the roster will always be rare and worth insane amounts of money. However, all other quarterbacks will be competing for starting roles and replaceable if they demand too much money. Any quarterback outside the top tier, won’t be worth paying more than 11.74% of the team’s salary cap. NFL teams have begun to figure this out and the wheels are in motion. This might happen in 3 years and might happen in a decade. Nevertheless, it will happen, it’s only a matter of time.
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