As we’ve entered the latter half of the season, the AFC playoff picture has begun to take shape. While we do have an idea of what the playoff picture will look like, a lot can change in the remaining eight weeks. With that said, let’s compare and contrast the current AFC playoff picture to what I believe it will look like after the regular season.
Current Standings:
Division Leaders:
1. KC (9W-0L)
2. BUF (8W-2L)
3. PIT (7W-2L)
4. HOU (6W-4L)
Wildcard Teams:
5. BAL (7W-3L)
6. LAC (6W-3L)
7. DEN (5W-5L)
My Predictions:
Division Leaders:
1. KC
2. BAL
3. BUF
4. HOU
Wildcard Teams:
5. PIT
6. DEN
7. LAC
Division Leaders:
1. Kansas City Chiefs:
This pick doesn’t require much explanation. The Kansas City Chiefs have won the past two Super Bowls and are currently favorites to win their third consecutive title. They’re yet to lose this season and are undoubtedly the best team in the NFL. While I believe that they will eventually lose a game and ruin their perfect season, I have no reason to believe that they won’t finish the regular season as the top seed in the AFC.
2. Baltimore Ravens:
After the Ravens’ season got off to a slow start, they found their rhythm in week 3. Since their 0W-2L start, Baltimore is 7W-1L, scoring 34.4 points per game. Baltimore’s backfield duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has become the most unstoppable force in the NFL. Between the ground and the air, Jackson and Henry have accounted for 4,423 yards. In accordance, Baltimore leads the NFL with 4,496 scrimmage yards. Baltimore is on pace to break the 2011 New Orleans Saints’ record of 7,632 scrimmage yards in a season. With their historic offense, I doubt the Ravens won’t find a way to win the AFC North.
3. Buffalo Bills:
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are having a great season. Between both their offense and their defense ranking top-10 in the NFL in points and the lack of competition in the AFC East, the Bills will easily win their division. However, out of Buffalo’s 8 wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record. So far, the Bills are 1W-2L against teams with winning records. Three of the Bills’ next four games, will be against teams with winning records. I expect Buffalo to lose at least 2 of those games, allowing the Ravens to steal the 2 seed.
4. Houston Texans:
Despite the high expectations, the Houston Texans haven’t been as dominant as we had expected and CJ Stroud is suffering a mild sophomore slump. This can be associated with the injuries in Houston’s receiving room and poor offensive line play. Stefon Diggs only played 8 games before suffering a season-ending ACL tear, Nico Collins has missed the past 5 games with a hamstring injury, and Tank Dell has missed bits of time here and there due to a back injury. After being sacked 38 times in the 2023 season, Stroud has already been sacked 34 times through the first 10 games of the 2024 season. Nonetheless, I still expect Houston to comfortably win the AFC South, due to lack of competition.
Wildcard Teams:
5. Pittsburgh Steelers:
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the surprise of the 2024 season. Their suffocating defense has been incredible, allowing only 16.2 points per game and forcing almost 2 turnovers per game. On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have minimized turnovers and capitalized on opportunities presented by their good defense. However, I don’t think that Pittsburgh’s offense has what it takes to keep up with Baltimore. To outlast Baltimore’s historic offense and win the division, Pittsburgh will have to be perfect, and their offense isn’t good enough to do so. Russell Wilson has been better than he was in Denver, but he’s still not the quarterback he once was. George Pickens is a good receiver but even after acquiring Mike Williams, the guys behind Pickens aren’t enough of a threat. Najee Harris is a good physical runner, but the Steelers lack explosiveness. All together, I expect Pittsburgh to end up as one of the top WildCard teams.
6. Denver Broncos:
After Bo Nix’s abysmal initial impression, the Broncos’ rookie quarterback figured it out. After starting 0W-2L, the Broncos went on a 5W-1L run. Over the past two weeks, the Broncos faced two of the top three teams in the NFL. Denver didn’t look good against Baltimore, but they did come a blocked field goal away from beating the Chiefs in Kansas City. After the game, Patrick Mahomes expressed that he believes the Broncos have found their franchise quarterback. “You found one…It's just the first one, we got a lot of these (matchups)” said Mahomes. With 3 of Denver’s 4 most challenging games behind them, I expect the Broncos to win 4 or 5 of their remaining games, which will likely be enough to get them a wildcard spot.
7. Los Angeles Chargers:
The first season of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure in Los Angeles, so far, has been a success. The Chargers have taken large strides forward on both sides of the ball and Harbaugh has his boys in line to make the playoffs. However, as we expected, the Chargers’ offense’s lack of weapons has been an issue. The lack of weapons has held Los Angeles to 22nd in the NFL in yards. Hence, in a high-scoring track meet, the Chargers will struggle to go blow-for-blow with explosive offenses. In accordance, the next 4 quarterbacks the Chargers will face are Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, and Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers’ defense will be able to win them one or two of those games, but the losses will open the door for the Broncos to steal the 6 seed. Nonetheless, since 9 teams in the AFC have losing records, the Chargers will most likely be able to hang on to a wildcard spot.
Comments