With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, the seven AFC playoff teams are pretty much set. However, it’ll be anyone’s game once we reach the playoffs. Here is why no AFC team should be confident going into January:
Kansas City Chiefs:
At 13W-1L, the Kansas City Chiefs stand atop the AFC standings and seem unstoppable. Nonetheless, there is one stat that concerns me regarding the Chiefs. That is because 10 out of Kansas City’s 12 wins have come by a single-score margin. Teams that inflate their record by winning many tight games tend to disappoint in the playoffs. In NFL history, out of the 7 teams to win 15 or more games by a single score, 5 lost in the playoffs. The Chiefs' inability to put teams away is a recipe for a fluke loss early in the postseason.
Buffalo Bills:
Led by Josh Allen’s incredible 2024 campaign, the 11W-3L Buffalo Bills look to be a threat in the playoffs. However, a serious concern has been brought up over the past two weeks. To quote Bear Bryant, “Defense wins championships”, and Buffalo’s defense has allowed over 40 points in the last two weeks. In the playoffs, Buffalo will need their defense to come up with a big stop late in the game. Much like we’ve seen from them in recent years, their defense won’t be able to come through when they’re needed most.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
At 10W-4L, the Steelers currently own first place in the AFC North and third seed in the AFC. However, unlike Kansas City and Buffalo, Pittsburgh isn’t led by a top-tier quarterback. As a result, they aren’t nearly as threatening. While Russ and the offense have overperformed, they’re not explosive enough to go blow-for-blow with the top teams. When their defense allows 20 or more points, the Steelers are 2W-4L. You cannot rely on your defense to hold playoff teams under 20 points in four consecutive playoff games.
Houston Texans:
Despite a disappointing sophomore season from CJ Stroud, the Houston Texans have a 9W-5L record and clinched the AFC South. Houston was able to wrap up the South due to a lack of competition and hasn’t been on par with the other division leaders. Houston has only won a single game against teams with winning records. Every playoff opponent will be a team with a winning record. In accordance, I doubt Houston’s playoff run will go very far.
Baltimore Ravens:
The Baltimore Ravens’ 9W-5L record is currently the best among non-division leaders in the AFC. Courtesy of historic campaigns from Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens lead the NFL in scrimmage yards. Nonetheless, there’s a reason that the team with the best offense in the NFL doesn’t have a top-tier record. That reason is their defense. Baltimore’s defense is ranked 22nd in points per game and the Ravens are 0W-5L when their offense scored less than 28 points. You cannot rely on your offense to score 28 or more points in four consecutive playoff games.
Denver Broncos:
This past week, the Denver Broncos won their 9th game of the season, clinching a winning record for the first time since Manning retired. After losing their first two games, the Broncos have won 9 of their past 12. However, I’m concerned about Denver for not one, but two reasons. Led by a rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, the Broncos offense is prone to suffering from rookie mistakes. In accordance, the Broncos have multiple giveaways in 6 games this season, including their last two. You won’t beat teams like the Chiefs and Bills if you give their elite quarterbacks the ball with a positive field position. In addition, both Denver’s starting corners, Pat Surtaina, and Riley Moss are currently on the injury report. Denver plays a lot of man coverage, which won’t work if their top coverage guys aren’t on the field.
Los Angeles Chargers:
Jim Harbaugh has completely revamped the Chargers. Harbaugh has them at 8W-6L, three wins more than they had at this point last year. While the Chargers culture seems to be fixed, their roster isn’t there yet, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Due to a lack of threats in the passing game, the Chargers rank 27th in the NFL in offensive yards. This issue will only increase, due to both Justin Herbert and his favorite target, Ladd McConkey, being on the Chargers’ injury report. While they both played through their respective injuries against Tampa Bay last week, neither of them was at their best. Which resulted in Los Angeles being held to 206 total yards and a 40-17 loss. If the Chargers’ duo doesn’t heal up before January, their offense will have a rough go in the playoffs.
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