THE 3 WAY RACE:
Entering week 16, three teams are tied for first place in the AFC South at 8W-6L. The tie is between the reigning division champion, Jacksonville Jaguars and two breakout teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. This year’s AFC wildcard race is loaded, with 11 AFC teams having won at least half their games. Therefore, winning the division is crucial, as nothing’s guaranteed in the wildcard race. However, only one of the three teams (Colts, Texans, and Jaguars) can punch their ticket to a playoff matchup via a division championship, so who will it be?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ rebuild finally started bearing fruit in the 2022 season. The new-look Jaguars turned their season around by winning six of their final seven games. The Jags’ hot streak was just enough to win the AFC South. Jacksonville beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the wildcard round via a historic comeback before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round.
Coming off a successful season, the Jaguars looked to take another step forward in 2023 and play the way they had in the latter half of 2022 for an entire season. Things started as planned through the first 11 games as they went 8W-3L. But in a week 13 primetime matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, disaster struck as the Jags’ star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, went down with an ankle injury. The Jaguars lost the game in overtime, motivating Lawrence to try playing through the injury the following week. It was evident that Lawrence was still not healthy as he threw a season-high three interceptions during a loss to the Cleveland Browns. Things only got worse in the following week. Lawrence still wasn’t fully healthy and yet again was a shell of his usual self as the Jaguars got blown out by the Baltimore Ravens. To make matters worse, Lawrence sustained a separate injury, to his head this time, making his return to full health this season unlikely.
Between Trevor Lawrence’s two injuries, and a couple of other playmakers, such as Christian Kirk, being down, I’m concerned about this Jacksonville team. The Jaguars' 3-game losing streak is all the proof I need that the Jags cannot win without those guys. Unless Lawrence has super-healing like Wolverine, I doubt the Jaguars will win the AFC South.
HOUSTON TEXANS:
Ever since trading away DeAndre Hopkins, the Houston Texans have been in shambles. The Texans’ combined record from 2020 through 2022 was a sad 11W-38L-1T, coming to a new low point and finishing with the worst record in the AFC in 2022. The terrible season granted the Texans the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft.
Houston took advantage of their high draft pick, and traded for another, to bring in Ohio State’s quarterback CJ Stroud and Alabama’s star edge rusher Will Anderson Junior. They weren’t done yet, Houston proceeded to find a gem in the rough in the third round in wide receiver Tank Dell out of Houston. Led by new head coach DeMeco Ryans, the young Texans looked to turn the organization around in 2023.
Things started as planned through the first 12 games as they went 7W-5L. But in a week 13 matchup against the Denver Broncos the injury bug started hitting the team. It started with Tank Dell’s season coming to an early end with a broken left fibula and continued with CJ Stroud going into concussion protocol the following week. Due to said injuries, the Texans got blown out 30-6 by the untalented New York Jets and needed an overtime miracle to squeeze by the struggling Tennessee Titans 19-16. The Texans have not looked good over the past couple of games, plus they have a tough matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns. Between Dell being out for the remainder of the season, Stroud having concussion issues, and the team having a difficult remaining schedule, it’s hard to imagine that the Texans will win the AFC South. However, if they beat the Colts on the road in a crucial week 18 divisional matchup, they have a chance.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Much like the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts have been a mess over the past couple of years. The Colts have had 5 different leading passers in each of the last 5 seasons and looked to finally put an end to their quarterback carousel by drafting Anthony Richardson with the 4th overall pick. Richardson is an athletic freak and brought to the table the threats of a deep ball and a quarterback run, which the Colts offense didn’t possess last season.
Richardson immediately showed off his athleticism, scoring three touchdowns on the ground in his first game and a half in the NFL. However, his aggressive style cost him as Richardson went into concussion protocol after taking a big hit by the goalline on his third rushing touchdown. Yet it was fine because Richardson was back in the lineup after only missing one game, and scored three touchdowns against the Rams. But it wasn’t fine. The very next game, Richardson took another big hit. Richardson sustained an injury to the AC joint in his throwing shoulder, effectively ending his season.
Anthony Richardson’s injury put the fate of the Colts in the hands of career backup, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew entered the season with an 8W-16L career record and wasn’t expected to accomplish much. Since Minshew did get the job done in their week 3 overtime win over the Baltimore Ravens, The Colts weren’t quite ready to give up on the season. However, they were almost ready to give up after Minshew lost his next three starts. At 3W-5L, the Colts finally got a breakthrough as the schedule gifted them two easy wins against the 1W-6L Carolina Panthers and the 2W-7L New England Patriots. Indianapolis entered their bye week at 5W-5L with some momentum. Gardner Minshew and the offense got hot after the bye and they scored 27+ points in consecutive weeks, extending the winning streak to four games. Even though the streak was snapped by the Cincinnati Bengals in week 14, the Colts proved their legitimacy this past week as they blew out the Cleveland Browns and their top-ranked defense by a score of 30-13.
Gardner Minshew II is having a career year and has been hotter than ever over the past three games, throwing 6 touchdowns to only a singular pick. As I previously mentioned, the Colts are currently 8W-6L despite their best player, running back Jonathan Taylor sitting out four games. Between Taylor, Minshew, and the defense rolling, the Colts aren’t a team many want to face right now. Indy has two relatively easy matchups against the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders (both 6W-8L) before a crucial week 18 divisional matchup with the Houston Texans at home.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS:
Even though they’re not technically eliminated, Lawrence's injuries will continue to be a huge roadblock for the Jaguars, so I’ll focus on the Colts and Texans.
Colts' remaining schedule: @ATL (6W-8L), vs LV (6W-8L), vs HOU (8W-6L)
Texans' remaining schedule: vs CLE (9W-5L), vs TEN (5W-9L), @IND (8W-6L)
If despite being banged up, the Texans beat the Browns this week, the division will most likely come down to the week 18 matchup in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Because the Colts are 3W-2L in divisional matchups while the Texans are only 2W-2L, Houston’s week 17 matchup against the Tennessee Titans will be crucial. If the Colts beat both the Falcons and Raiders, the Browns’ game will become irrelevant, and if Houston loses to the Titans, Indianapolis will clinch the division. Since the Colts won their previous matchup, if the Colts go 2W-0L and the Texans lose to the Titans or the Colts go 1W-1L and the Texans lose both games, the Colts won’t even have to beat the Texans to win the division. Between the easier schedule, the stronger divisional record, the fewer injuries, and the home-field advantage, I believe the Indianapolis Colts will win the AFC South.
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