ALL-STAR BALLOT:
It is that time of year again, the MLB All-Star game is approaching. Many superstars have had great first halves of the season and earned many All-Star votes. While filling out my ballot, I noticed that most picks were pretty straightforward, such as Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. However, there was one position that I couldn’t figure out. Who’s the best shortstop in the American League? Bobby Witt Jr. or Gunnar Henderson?
THE GAME-MAKER:
The Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. and the Oiroles’ Gunnar Henderson are by far the two best shortstops in the American League. Both are young and athletic stars. Bobby Witt and Gunnar Henderson are the only players who can give the Yankees’ duo of Judge and Soto a run for their money in the AL MVP race. The question is: Who’s 1 and who’s 1A? After all, the American League can only start one player at shortstop in the All-Star game. I tried comparing their stats, but every time one seems to be better, the other dominates the next stat. Henderson is a better power hitter, but Witt has a better batting average. Witt is a much better fielder and baserunner, but Henderson has better righty-lefty splits. Witt is older but he doesn’t have an experience advantage, because they both debuted in 2022. After breaking my brain for half an hour to no avail, I decided that I needed a unique angle, a different stat. After a deep search through Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference, Stat Muse, and Fangraphs, I gave up and decided to watch a movie instead. That’s where I found my answer.
THE GAME-BREAKER:
In my opinion, the greatest movie ever made is Moneyball. For those unfamiliar, Moneyball is the story of Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta (his character was renamed “Peter Brand”), and the 2002 Oakland Athletics. Beane and DePodesta/Brand used a unique view of statistics to build Oakland a playoff team despite having an incredibly low budget. Brand’s philosophy was rather than looking at a player’s swing, arm talent, or other raw tools, figure out how to score runs as a team. The quote is as follows: “People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs.”
Based on Brand’s philosophy, I concluded that a player who brings the most run value to his team is the player who helps his team win the most. Three stats tell us how many runs a player has contributed: 1. Runs batted in. 2. Runs scored. 3. Defensive run value. Therefore, to determine which player, Bobby Witt or Gunnar Henderson, has done more to help their team win games, I’ve tallied the three stats and divided them by the number of games played. The final number should show us how many runs the player contributes to his team per game. In 71 games, Gunnar Henderson has 49 runs batted in, 57 runs scored, and a defensive run value of 5 runs. In total, Henderson’s number is 111 divided by 71, which equals 1.56. In 74 games, Bobby Witt Jr. has 51 runs batted in, 59 runs scored, and a defensive run value of 8 runs. In total, Witt’s number is 118 divided by 74, which equals 1.59.
While the two players are extremely evenly matched, Bobby Witt’s number of 1.59 slightly beats Gunnar Henderson’s number of 1.56. While the 0.03 margin is microscopic, I can only vote for one of the two as the starting shortstop. Since Witt has helped his team win games ever so slightly more than Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. gets my vote. Henderson’s a great player, but I’ll be voting for Bobby Witt to start at shortstop for the American League All-Star and I hope you do as well!
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