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Nathan Aronoff

The Angels Need to Trade Mike Trout


PERRY MINASIAN:

The Los Angeles Angels must trade Mike Trout to save their franchise. That is so because their general manager Perry Minasian has run them into the ground. My articles usually focus on praising people rather than criticizing them, because who am I to criticize professionals if I’m not doing better myself (he’s the GM of an MLB team while I’m a 19-year-old kid writing from my dorm room)? However, I’ll make an exception because Minasian is trying to make money instead of trying to win, and that can ruin baseball. The following led me to believe that Minasian isn’t trying to win.


THE 2023 TRADE DEADLINE:

In October I wrote an article discussing this section more thoroughly. There already is a negative narrative surrounding the Angels’ front office because they couldn’t win with both Ohtani and Trout. This past summer they made it even worse. 

The Los Angeles Angels sat at 51W-49L a week before the trade deadline. At the time, the Angels were not in a wildcard spot and were in third place in their division. The worst AL wildcard team ended up being the Toronto Blue Jays at 89W-73L. So the Angels would’ve had to finish the year on a 39W-23L run to beat out Toronto. Even though, back in July, they didn’t know exactly what the mark would be, Minasian would have to be delusional to believe his team had a shot. Logically, the team should’ve thrown in the white flag and traded their players on contract years for prospects who will help the team the next time they’re relevant. However, one of the Angels’ players on a contract year was the most unique player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani. Minasian knew that many fans came to the ballpark to see Ohtani, he also knew that Ohtani’s jersey was by far the top-selling jersey in the MLB. Losing 60 games of Ohtani would cut a lot off the Angels’ income. To defend his decision not to trade Ohtani, Minasian decided to claim he still thought his team could make a playoff run. The issue was that if they’re still trying to make a playoff run, they have to acquire players who will help their run. Therefore, the Angels traded away two of their top prospects, catcher Edgar Quero (age 20) and pitcher Ky Bush (age 23) to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Giolito hasn’t been good in a couple of years. However, he’s well known because he once threw a “no-hitter” (so he’s another “sales” piece). Minasian then sent pitching prospects Mason Albright and Jake Madden to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for first baseman CJ Cron and outfielder Randal Grichuk. Minasian still wasn’t satisfied. He continued by sending infield prospect Jeremiah Jackson to the Mets in exchange for pitcher Dominic Leone. 

The Angels ended up going 22W-40L to finish at 73W-89L, and all of the players they acquired became free agents. In total, the Angels threw away five players who could've been large pieces of their future rosters, while not adding a single player that will help them after 2023. Not only did they lose those players, but they also lost the contract-year guys previously on the team who should’ve been traded.


THEY’RE SCREWED:

With that said, let’s take a look at the Angels’ players and resources as of January 1st. 

The Angels’ pitching staff finished the 2023 season with a 4.64 ERA, 23rd in the MLB. They were an average team due to their offense having 708 RBIs, 14th in the MLB. If we remove the 230 runs driven in by the players who walked in free agency, the most notable ones being Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe, and Gio Urshela, their current roster only had 478 RBIs. 478 is only 2.95 per game, while the MLB average last year was 4.25. Not only will their rotation rank in the bottom 10 in baseball, but the 478 RBIs would’ve come in dead last in the MLB. We must consider the fact that they may get healthy seasons from Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon this year but since neither have played over 130 games since 2019, I wouldn’t count on it. 

Can they go out and sign free agents to replace the production they lost? I don’t think so. The Angels have the 14th-highest payroll in the MLB at 135 million dollars. They are handcuffed by two massive contracts belonging to players who have consistently failed to stay healthy. The first is Mike Trout’s 12-year 426.5-million-dollar deal, and the second is Anthony Rendon’s 7-year 245-million-dollar contract. In 2023, the two players got paid 75.7 million dollars to play a combined 125 games and drive in 66 runs. Therefore, I doubt Minasian will want to, or be allowed to pull the trigger on any major signings in the near future. 

They can’t turn to their farm system for reinforcements either. After trading away so many key pieces at the deadline last year, the Angels are left with a very dull prospect list. The Angels only have one top-100 prospect, Nolan Schanuel. Schanuel made his MLB debut in 2023, but their 2-4 prospects won’t be ready until estimated 2026. 

Between already having a poor pitching staff, losing 32% of their offensive production, being injury-prone, and not having anywhere to turn for reinforcements, I’m not sure the Los Angeles Angels will win 100 games over the next two seasons. Perry Minasian has run this team into the ground by trying to sell merch and tickets, there’s no other way to put it. 


WHAT THEY CAN DO:

I mentioned that it is hard to criticize Minasian if I’m not doing any better. Yet, in this specific situation, given the opportunity, I believe I would do better. Here’s how I would save the Los Angeles Angels:

I would tear it all down, in a strategic manner. I previously mentioned that the Angels’ number 2, number 3, and number 4 prospects are all expected to arrive in the big leagues in 2026, therefore I would set my winning window from 2026 to 2028. I would do so by trading Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Tyler Anderson for prospects whose MLB ETAs are between 2025 and 2027. By doing so I would also clear over 88.6 million dollars off the Angels’ payroll (contracts would be included in the trades). Later on, when the prospects begin blooming, I could use said money to bring in proven MLB talent. I’m not concerned about weakening the 2024 and 2025 rosters because they’re horrible with or without Trout, Rendon, and Anderson.

While making all these moves I would focus on my favorite analytic, “hard-hit balls”. Baseball Savant defines “hard-hit balls” as balls that come off the bat at above 95 miles per hour. If you consistently hit the ball hard, good things will happen! In 2023, in both the NL and AL, one team led their league in every major hitting category (batting average, home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging, and hits). Those teams were the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers, and by no coincidence, the Braves and Rangers were also the top two teams in the MLB in “hard-hit balls”.  I would look to acquire players with a favorable ratio of “hard-hit balls” to OPS. These players are undervalued by other teams who judge based on a player’s OPS. For example, the Detroit Tigers’ first baseman, Spencer Torkelson, was 12th in the MLB in “hard-hit” balls with 223, yet was 78th in OPS with an OPS of .759. If my logic is correct, Torkelson has simply been unlucky and he should have a break-out 2024 season. After all, he’s hitting the ball harder than superstars such as Freddie Freeman and Jose Ramirez (220 each). 


MINASIAN HAS GOT TO GO:

Unless the Angels use my layout, I cannot imagine them being a competitive team anytime soon. I’m 100% sure that Perry Minasian won’t trade Mike Trout because his jersey was the 10th best-selling jersey in 2023. Therefore, the Angels won’t tear it down and won’t build for the future. Forbes values the Los Angeles Angels at 2.7 billion dollars, 7th amongst MLB teams. Therefore, they should be a successful franchise, but with a general manager who isn’t trying to win running the show, that can never happen. Perry Minasian is ruining the Angels and it’s a shame. To Minasian’s credit, since he took over in November 2020, the Angels’ value has grown by nearly 0.8 billion dollars. However, if all GMs start trying to bring in cash instead of wins, the MLB is doomed. 


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