Almost every season, one team emerges as the “fun and young” new contenders. Last year it was the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona went from an under .500 team to a World Series appearance in one season. While reviewing stats, in an attempt to discover who 2024’s break-out team would be, I noticed that one team is set up not only to break out but to run their division for the next decade. This team is young and talented, and nobody is talking about them. This team hasn’t won 90 games since 2014 and has become so irrelevant that nobody noticed them slowly building a great roster. In 2023 they won 76 games, 12 more than the previous year, and they’re prepared to make another leap in 2024. This team is the Detroit Tigers and here’s why I think they’re primed to run the Central for the next decade:
THE LINEUP:
In 2023 Detroit’s top 3 hitters in terms of OPS were ages 25 and younger, and all 3 will be even more productive in 2024. Both Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene posted incredible rookie seasons, however, they both missed time due to injuries. If the two can stay healthy, with another year of experience they’ll be a lethal duo. Meanwhile, last season, Spencer Torkelson was 12th in the MLB in “hard-hit” balls with 223, yet was 78th in OPS with an OPS of .759. If my logic is correct, Torkelson has simply been unlucky and he should have a break-out 2024 season. In 2024, I expect all three hitters to surpass 30 homers in 2024 while batting above .250.
In addition to their players developing, Detroit will be adding three solid bats to their lineup. The Tigers recently signed veteran outfielder Mark Canha. Canha is already in his mid 30s but he can still hit. In 2023 he put up an OPS of .755, 21 points above the league average. The Tigers are also receiving reinforcements from their farm system. Infield prospects Jace Jung and Colt Keith are both top-60 prospects in all of baseball. They’re both expected to make the opening-day roster and should both be great additions to the lineup.
The difference between Detroit’s lineup being solid or being elite will be their two wildcard players. Javier Baez and Akil Baddoo are two batters with incredible potential at the plate but have yet to find consistency and had low batting averages in 2023. Baez is a former superstar who was always held back a bit by his high chase rate. After the Tigers handed Baez a 6-year 140-million-dollar contract, his chase rate got even higher and he fell from his stardom. In his best season, he put up an OPS of .881, almost 300 points higher than his .593 OPS in 2023. However, Baez is only 30 years old and still has time, with good coaching he can return to being an above-average hitter or even better. Akil Baddoo is a young, athletic outfielder, who has a ton of pop, the question has always been if he can hit for contact. In his rookie year in 2021, Baddoo showed promise by putting up a .259 batting average. Nevertheless, he completely fell off afterward and hit .204 in 2022 and .218 in 2023. Baddoo has all the pieces except consistent contact, if he can improve that part of his game it will all come together. Much like Baez, with good coaching, he can return to being an above-average hitter or even better. Realistically, one out of the two will figure things out. That would give Detroit 7 solid young bats in their lineup, which is much better than anything the other teams in the AL Central have to offer. Here’s what their lineup can potentially look like this year.
CF Riley Greene L
RF Kerry Carpenter L
DH Mark Canha R
1B Spencer Torkelson L
2B/3B Jace Jung L
SS Javier Baez R
3B/2B Colt Keith L
C Jake Rodgers R
LF Akil Baddoo L
UTL Matt Vierling R
THE PITCHING STAFF:
In 2023, the Detroit Tiger’s pitching staff put up a 4.24 ERA, ranked 17th in the MLB. That was despite having one of the youngest and most injury-prone rotations in the MLB. Entering the 2023 season, Detroit had 3 starting pitchers in their early 20s with high ceilings. Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning were expected to be solid parts of the rotation, and Casey Mize was supposed to be even better. In 2022, in only his second year in the MLB, Mize threw 150 innings while posting a 3.71 ERA and was hoping to be even better in 2023. However, all 3 missed significant time due to injuries, with Mize only appearing in 2 games. In their absence, the 23-year-old Reese Olson stepped up and proved he’ll be a solid starting pitcher for years to come. Furthermore, Jackson Jobe, one of the Tigers’ top pitching prospects, is the number 25 prospect in baseball and will be ready to join their MLB club in a year or two. Between Mize (age 26), Skubal (age 27), Manning (age 26), Jobe (age 21), and Olson (age 24), Detroit should have an above-average rotation for at least the next half-decade.
Losing their ace Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency will hold them back, but they will most definitely be better than last year. They replaced him by signing two other starting pitchers. Both of their signings, Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, have been aces in the past, but have been held back by injuries. Maeda’s only season with a sub-3 ERA was in the shortened 2020 season, but Flaherty had real Cy Young-caliber seasons. In 2019, Flaherty started 33 games and posted a 2.75 ERA over 196 innings, enough to receive both Cy Young and MVP votes. However, that was the last time Flaherty started 30 games in a season. He did stay mostly healthy last year, so the Tigers are hoping he can put the injuries behind him and return to 2019 form. If the young guys show up and the new acquisitions to their jobs, Detroit may have a top-10 rotation in the MLB in 2024.
RUNNING THE CENTRAL:
Over the past few years, the American League Central has been one of, if not the weakest division in baseball. While three divisions had multiple 90-win teams last year, the AL Central hasn’t had two 90-win teams since 2019. The division is a mess and with the departure of star pitcher Sonny Gray this offseason, it’s only gotten weaker. The Tigers have an opportunity to take advantage of this and win the division by being only slightly above average. Furthermore, out of the 15 key players I mentioned, 11 are well under 30 years old. If the majority of the 11 young players stick around in Detroit, they can create a very strong core and play together for a very long time. The Tigers’ payroll is currently 92.8 million dollars, the 10th lowest in the MLB. Detroit can expand their payroll and bring in more high-end players to build a championship team. However, in my opinion, they should save the money for when their young stars need contract extensions. By keeping the core around for the long run, the Tigers can run the AL Central for years and re-establish the winning tradition in Detroit, the same way the Lions have over in the NFL.
The Detroit Tigers are the best team nobody’s talking about.
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