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Nathan Aronoff

The Broncos' QB Competition is Anyone's Game

Updated: Jun 4


Ever since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats, the Denver Broncos have been going through a never-ending quarterback carousel. They momentarily thought they had found the solution when they traded for Russell Wilson. Nevertheless, the Russell Wilson fiasco ended up pushing Denver years back, and into a rebuild. 

As of May 27th, 2024, the Broncos have three quarterbacks on their roster. At the moment, each quarterback is at the level of an above-average second-string quarterback. Yet, all three quarterbacks have reason to claim they could potentially break out as a star. Sean Payton and the Broncos’ coaching staff must determine which quarterback is most likely to fulfill their potential. Said quarterback will be named the starter for the 2024 season. Between Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, and Bo Nix, it’s anyone’s ballgame. The following are the concerns and potential upsides, of each quarterback:


ZACH WILSON:

During the 2021 pre-draft process, Zach Wilson was the star of the show. His athleticism and throwing abilities drew a lot of attention from the media. A couple of the throws he made at his pro day made him seem like a generational prospect. With the second pick of the 2021 draft, Wilson was selected by the New York Jets. Jets faithful hoped Wilson would turn around their franchise. Unfortunately, Wilson stunk. Yet, I believe that it was mostly the Jets holding him back rather than Wilson being a bad quarterback. 

There are many types of quarterback prospects. Wilson falls under the category of “Incredible Physical Tools”. When these quarterbacks are drafted we often see them sit or struggle for their first few seasons. Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Josh Allen are great examples. Mahomes had the tools in college. Nevertheless, he was viewed as the number 3 quarterback prospect in his class because he lacked football IQ, and couldn’t win big games. After sitting and learning from Andy Reid and Alex Smith, Mahomes developed into a superstar. Jordan Love had the tools in college. Nevertheless, he was viewed as 4th-best quarterback prospect in his class, because he lacked experience and played in a weak conference. After sitting for 3 years and learning from Aaron Rodgers, Nathaniel Hackett, and Matt LaFleur, he developed into a star. Josh Allen had the tools in college. Nevertheless, he was viewed as the number 3 quarterback prospect in his class because he lacked football IQ, and accuracy, and played in a weak conference. Allen struggled with accuracy and turnovers early in his career before the great coaching staff around him helped him develop into a superstar. In Allen’s rookie year, in 12 games he completed 52% of his passes and threw a pick per game. In his third season, in 16 games Allen completed 69% of his passes and threw only 10 interceptions. It’s evident that when these types of quarterbacks are drafted, the environment they enter is crucial. 

In recent history, the Jets have consistently drafted quarterbacks that turn out to be busts. This leads me to believe that the Jets have been a toxic environment for quarterbacks in the category of “Incredible Physical Tools”. We saw above just how critical the environments these quarterbacks enter can be. We saw Geno Smith leave the Jets and have his career revived with the Seattle Seahawks. When Sam Darnold left, he looked slightly better with the Panthers. Then he went to San Francisco and received a ton of praise, but due to Brock Purdy’s dominance, Darnold got minimal opportunities to show his improvement. Nevertheless, he did look good in his few preseason appearances and his one start. He’s now on the Vikings, with an opportunity to win the starting job. 

If you look at what Zach Wilson’s supporting cast accomplished before and after working with him, it’s no surprise he hasn’t developed well. In Wilson’s rookie season, his head coach was a defensive-minded coach, putting the responsibility of developing the quarterback on the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. The offensive coordinator was Mike LaFleur. LaFleur’s previous job was as the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy Garapolo and Kyle Shanahan did most of the heavy lifting for him, but when Jimmy G was injured, things were ugly. In three of LaFleur’s four years with the 49ers, their offense was in the bottom 13 in points scored. The hire made no sense to begin with. In Wilson’s final year with the Jets, he worked with Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett. Two much more qualified individuals. While obviously, Wilson didn’t instantly become a completely different player, there was a noticeable improvement. Wilson put up career-highs in completion percentage and passer rating while posting a career-low in interception percentage. He showed sparks of potential in multiple games, with the high point coming against the Texans in week 14. While leading New York to 30 points against  Houston’s high-end defense, Wilson threw for over 300 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 picks. Wilson’s now working with offensive genius, Super Bowl-winning head coach, Sean Payton. Between working with Rodgers, Hackett, and Payton, there’s a slim chance that Zach Wilson will develop into the quarterback we once all expected him to be.


JARRETT STIDHAM:

Jarrett Stidham was drafted by the New England Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL draft. In his rookie season, Stidham sat behind Tom Brady and learned from the best to ever do it. After two years in New England, Stidham found his way to the Las Vegas Raiders. Stidham got his first opportunity to start a game in week 17, versus the San Francisco 49ers. Against the top defense in the NFL, Stidham put up a record-breaking performance. The kid threw for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ defense let him down, and they lost 37-34. Stidham wasn’t as impressive the following week, as the Raiders lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. 

The following offseason, Stidham signed with the Denver Broncos. After Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver went horribly wrong, Sean Payton brought in Stidham to light a fire under Wilson. Stidham got playing time in his first two preseason games with the Broncos and was mediocre. However, in the third preseason game, Stidham put on a clinic. The Broncos were run-heavy by the endzone, so his stat line is deflated. Stidham completed 17 of 28 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown. He also ripped off a 20-yard run on the ground. Led by Stidham’s brilliance, the Broncos won 41-0. Due to this performance, when Sean Payton got sick of Russell Wilson, he didn’t hesitate to start Stidham instead. Stidham was pretty average in his two regular season starts. He went 1W-1L and put up 496 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick, and a rating of 87.7. Russell Wilson also played the two opponents and Stidham was the better quarterback. Stidham put 95 yards more than Wilson and his offense had a better flow. 

While Stidham is regarded as a backup, he might be better than people think. He‘s learned from Brady, Belichick, and Sean Payton, and his film is very good. In 4 starts over the last two seasons, Stidham has completed 62% of his passes for 1,152 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a passer rating of 88.55. He’s not bad. Because, out of the 3 quarterbacks, Stidham’s been in the system for the longest and has the most NFL experience and success, he’s got a shot. 


BO NIX:

The Denver Broncos drafted Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft. Sean Payton’s offense is built on timing a rhythm. That’s why Drew Breese was successful and Russell Wilson wasn’t. Wilson would run around and extend the plays, instead of quickly working read to read. That’s why, even though Wilson’s stats look solid, Wilson was benched and the offense failed. During the predraft process, Bo Nix is compared to Drew Breese because of his great timing and rhythm. Therefore, I expect Bo Nix to be a great fit in the Broncos offense. Nevertheless, Nix has struggled with arm strength and many scouts didn’t believe he was a 1st-round talent. He has a lot to prove and isn’t expected to be a star immediately. While he is the front-runner at the moment, his starting job is anything but secured. There are a lot of split opinions on Nix and we won’t be able to know the truth until he’s been in the league for a number of years.


There are legitimate concerns regarding all three quarterbacks, yet all three have some upside. It seems to me that Nix is currently the frontrunner, with Stidham not far behind. Nevertheless, all three quarterbacks can realistically be the week 1 starter. No matter who Sean Payton and the Broncos go with, it can easily be an amazing success, but just as easily, it can go completely wrong. 



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