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Nathan Aronoff

The Flaw in Philly

Updated: Jun 10

HOT START:

As of May 29th, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies are in sole possession of the best record in baseball. At 38W-18L, the Phillies are on track to win 110 games. Their pitching staff has the 2nd-best collective ERA in the MLB, 3.18. Meanwhile, their lineup has the 3rd-best collective OPS in the MLB, .758. Between their dominance on both sides of the ball, they seem unstoppable.

In my NL East preseason predictions, I predicted that the Phillies would come in 3rd in the division and win no more than 90 games. I backed up my argument by stating that they haven’t won over 90 games since 2011 and that the Phillies are inconsistent. Two months into the season, the Phillies are dominating and one would think that I retract my prediction. Nevertheless, I stand by what I said. The Phillies might win over 90 games, but they’re not the team you think they are. Philadelphia’s lineup has one major flaw that is yet to be exposed. To date, the flaw hasn’t been exposed. That is because the Phillies have only had one series against an opponent that currently has a winning record. However, between July, August, and September, the Phillies will play 14 series against teams with winning records (as of May 29th). I expect these teams to expose the following flaw:


THE FLAW:

The Philadelphia Phillies’ starting 9 has produced very well to start the year. Nonetheless, excluding Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, the remaining 7 are all indiscipline hitters. Being an indiscipline hitter doesn’t necessarily mean the hitter’s bad. Salvador Perez and CJ Abrams are both in the bottom 4% in the MLB in whiff rate, but they’re both having great seasons. The issues arise when the indiscipline hitters, are surrounded by indiscipline hitters. There are many pitchers in baseball with great movement on their pitches but they lack in other fields. These pitchers aren’t very effective when the batters are patient and force the pitchers to throw their fastball and throw pitches in the zone. On the contrary, if your entire lineup is chasing the off-speed pitches, you’ll play right into the pitcher's strength and have a very tough time. 

Now let’s look at the analytics (1st percentile is the worst and 100th percentile is the best): The Phillies’ best hitter and leader in OPS, Bryce Harper, is in the 23rd percentile in chase rate and 19th percentile in whiff rate. The man who bats behind Harper, Nick Castellanos, is in the 6th percentile in both chase rate and whiff rate. Philadelphia’s leadoff hitter, Kyle Schwarber, isn’t much better. Schwarber is in the 9th percentile in whiff rate and the 13th percentile in strikeout rate. The man who bats behind Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, is in the 35th percentile in whiff rate, the 25th percentile in strikeout rate, and the 18th percentile in walk rate. The Phillies have two veteran outfielders, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas. Marsh is in the 14th percentile in strikeout rate, and Rojas is in the 17th percentile in chase rate and 8th percentile in walk rate. When he returns from the IL, Trea Turner won’t be able to save them either. In 2023, Turner was in the 25th percentile in whiff rate, the 24th percentile in walk rate, and the 12th percentile in chase rate. When the Phillies’ lineup faces a swing-and-miss specialist, they will be in deep trouble. 


THE GAUNTLET:

As I previously mentioned, in the final three months of the season, the Phillies will have 14 series against winning teams. They will play 3 against the Braves, 2 against the Dodgers, 2 against the Cubs, 2 against the Brewers, and 1 against the Royals, Orioles, Yankees, and Twins. Let’s start with the teams the Phillies will face most. 

Two Atlanta Braves starters, Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, will give the Phillies fits. Sale is in the 98th percentile in chase rate, the 85th percentile in whiff rate, the 95th percentile in walk rate, and the 90th percentile in strikeout rate. Lopez isn’t far behind. Lopez is in the 73rd percentile in chase rate and the 66th percentile in walk rate. 

The Dodgers’ one-two punch of Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be a nightmare for Philadelphia. Glasnow is in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate and the 79th percentile in whiff rate. Yamamoto is in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate, the 84th percentile in walk rate, the 67th percentile in whiff rate, and the 81st percentile in chase rate. The Cubs’ Shota Imanaga will embarrass the Phillies. Shota is in the 96th percentile in chase rate, the 87th percentile in whiff rate, the 90th percentile in walk rate, and the 80th percentile in strikeout rate. However, Shota is only the beginning of the Phillies’ problems. Two pitchers at the back of Chicago’s rotation, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown will dominate Philadelphia’s lineup. Wicks is in the 90th percentile in chase rate, the 74th percentile in whiff rate, and the 72nd percentile in strikeout rate. Brown is in the 89th percentile in whiff rate and the 87th percentile in strikeout rate. If the Phillies face the Cubs in a playoff series, I’ll be betting my house on Chicago. 

The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers match up well against Philadelphia as well. Peralta is in the 93rd percentile in both strikeout rate and whiff rate. The rookie, Tobias Myers, is in the 82nd percentile in chase rate and the 61st percentile in strikeout rate. 

The 9 starting pitchers I mentioned, will be the Phillies’ opponents in between 12 to 20 of their remaining 106 games. In addition, if the season ended today, 3 of these 4 teams would be in the NL playoffs along with the Phillies. The Phillies are probably going to have to go through at least two of these teams on their way to the World Series. The analytics above are more than enough to raise concerns regarding Philadelphia’s lineup. The trade deadline will be critical for this offense. Even though they do currently have the best record in baseball, there is absolutely no way the Philadelphia Phillies' current lineup can win the "Fall Classic".


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