Recently, throughout the baseball community and baseball media, a new metric has been trending. This metric is “bat speed” or “swing speed”. Mlb.com released their top 10 in this metric so far in the 2024 season, and people are going nuts. Mlb.com tried to make this metric seem like a big deal. They even went as far as implying that “swing speed” is behind the Yankees’ three sluggers’ success; “The only things that are the same are the bat speed, and the results”. In my opinion, bat speed is cute, but no more. It’s not a metric that can be used to value a player’s hitting skills, and here’s why:
FAST SWINGS:
Pros:
The advantage of a fast swing is that it naturally generates more force. A fast swing that connects will hit the ball harder than a slower swing. The three leaders in bat speed are Kyle Schwarber at 77 miles per hour, Oneil Cruz at 77.7, and Giancarlo Stanton at 80.6. In accordance, all three are in the top 13 in the league in adjusted exit velocity. However, swinging faster raises two disadvantages.
Cons:
The three players I mentioned above are all in the bottom 18% of the league in chase rate. Their fast swing causes them to expand the zone. That is because the quicker the swing is, the less time the batter has to adjust. On well-tunneled pitches, by the time these hitters realize that the pitch isn’t a fastball, it’s too late. They’re already too far into their swing, and can’t pull the bat back or adjust to the new direction of the ball. If you ever watch the Yankees, this is why we occasionally see Stanton swinging at sliders three feet away from the zone.
In addition, faster swings lead to higher foul ball percentages. If your bat is fast, it’ll spend less time at the proper angle to hit a fair ball. When an average batter is a bit early, they’ll pull the ball to left field. When one of the hitters mentioned above is just as early, their bat will have already turned more and they’ll pull the ball foul of third base. When an average hitter is a bit late, they’ll swat the ball to right field. When the hitters mentioned above are just as late, since they know their swing is fast, they won’t have started in time and they’ll send the ball foul of first base. These two cons are t of first base. These two cons are why Cruz, Schwarber, and Stanton are all in the bottom 7% in the MLB in strikeout rate.
SLOW SWINGS:
Cons:
Mlb.com is correct, slower swings will result in weaker contact. The stats back it up. The bottom two players in bat speed, Luis Arraez, and Steven Kwan, are also the bottom two in adjusted exit velocity. However, there’s more to hitting than adjusted exit velocity. For a fact, Arraez and Kwan aren’t at the bottom in average exit velocity.
Pros:
While slower swings may hold a player back in terms of pop, they can help in other aspects. Luis Arraez, who is dead last in the MLB with an average bat speed of 62.4 miles per hour, has been one of the top contact hitters over the past few years. With a career .324 batting average, this season, Arraez has the chance to win a batting title with his third different team. In addition, he’s also in the 100th percentile in strikeout rate. His ability to put the bat on the ball comes from his slow swing. Arraez’s swing allows him to react and adjust mid-swing. This way if the ball has unexpected movement, he has time to pull back his swing or realign his bat to the ball’s new trajectory. It’s almost impossible to sneak one past Luis Arraez. This is how he makes contact on 90.3% of his swings.
Furthermore, slower swings allow for a larger margin of error. If the bat takes a longer time to get through the zone, it’ll spend more time at a proper angle to hit the ball into fair territory. When the average player is too early, they hook the ball foul of third base. However, when Arraez is just as early, his bat hasn’t yet turned as much and he can still hit the ball into left field. When the average player is too late, they’ll slap the ball foul of first base. However, Arraez knows that his swing is slow and makes sure to start early. Therefore, when he’s just as late, his bat is already in position to slap the ball into right field. In accordance, on Luis Arraez’s spray chart, there are hits to every part of the field and it’s nearly impossible to play a shift on him.
DON’T TRUST IT:
What I said above seems logical until you take a look at Stanton’s teammates in the top 10. Both Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are in the top 10 in bat speed and the top 4 in the MLB in walks. The simple explanation is that if a hitter’s able to handle their bat speed they’ll be just fine. However, every hitter handles it differently, there’s an entire scale.
In conclusion, bat speed isn’t a reliable metric because there are too many variables regarding what the hitter does with their high or low bat speed. A ballplayer should never be valued or scouted based on their bat speed. If you’re looking for proper telling metrics, you can easily go on the Baseball Savant website (link here) and access legit ones. In my opinion, the metrics that tell you the most about a player are their average exit velocity, whiff rate, chase rate, and launch angles. Most definitely not bat speed.
Comments