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Nathan Aronoff

The Numbers Behind the Yankees' Sudden Turnaround

Updated: May 16


To start the 2023 season, the New York Yankees were viewed as World Series contenders. Nevertheless, they went on to go 82W-80L and had one of the most disappointing seasons in their franchise's history. This past offseason, fans were calling for Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner to turn the franchise upsidedown, the way they did before the 2009 season. However, they didn’t do so. They made a couple of big moves but overall, kept the same core. Surprisingly, their 2024 season has gotten off to an incredible start, as if the 2023 season never happened. If we take a closer look at the stats and numbers, we’ll realize that this in fact shouldn’t be surprising at all. 


OLD TENDENCIES:

Unlike the NBA and NFL, the MLB hasn’t felt the need to designate a salary cap. This is because in baseball, spending money doesn’t necessarily make you better. In baseball, you must use your brain and smartly construct your roster. For a fact, in 2023, the three teams with the highest payroll all missed the playoffs. 

The “Aaron Boone Era” Yankees have been a classic example. Since the “Baby Bombers” broke out in 2017, the Yankees have been going in circles, almost an endless loop. First, they fall short of expectations, then they throw money at their problems, and as a result, they’re viewed as a championship contender, then they fall short of expectations and restart. In 2017 they lost to Houston in the ALCS, then traded for Giancarlo Stanton, and signed him to a 13-year 325-million-dollar contract. In 2018 they lost to Boston in the ALDS, then they traded for Edwin Encarnacion and James Paxton and signed Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu. In 2019 they lost to Houston in the ALCS and then signed Gerrit Cole to a 9-year 324-million-dollar contract. In 2020 they lost to Tampa Bay in the ALCS and then traded for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. In 2021 they lost to Boston in the Wild Card game and then traded for Josh Donaldson and Harrison Bader. In 2022 they lost to Houston in the ALCS and then signed Carlos Rodon to a 6-year 162-million-dollar deal. Meanwhile, teams like the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays constantly part ways with key players and keep on winning. 

After missing the playoffs in 2023, the Yankees had another classic Yankees’ offseason. They traded for Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo and signed Marcus Stroman to a 2-year 37-million-dollar contract. However, so far, the results, have been extraordinary. In 2023 the Yankees won 82 games (15th in the MLB), their pitching staff put up a 3.97 ERA (10th in the MLB), and their lineup scored 673 runs (25th in the MLB) while posting a .701 team OPS (24th in the MLB). 38 games into the 2024 season, the stats look completely different. The Yankees are on past for 106 wins (4th in the MLB), their pitching staff has an ERA of 2.96 (2nd in the MLB),  and their lineup has scored 185 runs (6th in the MLB) while posting a .749 team OPS (4th in the MLB). in only one offseason, New York managed to improve their ERA by 34 percent and their run scoring by 17 percent. On the surface, this past offseason seems just like the other recent ones. However, there’s one major difference. In the past, the Yankees have thrown money at their problems and called it a day. In the 2023 offseason, the Yankees front office used their brains, and inspired by stats and analytics, they strategically used money. Let’s get into it.


THE NUMBERS;

In the 2023 season, of the 13 Yankees with the most plate appearances, only 2 were left-handed hitters. As we all know, when the pitcher and batter have the same strong arm, it favors the pitcher, and vice versa. In accordance, the Yankees were great against left-handed pitching and struggled against right-handed pitching. (In case you are unfamiliar with OPS, it’s a combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Thus, it measures a player’s consistency and ability to hit for power. Therefore, it’s the perfect measurement of a player’s hitting skills. .500 would be the worst hitters in the MLB, 1.000 is the best hitters, and the league average is usually between .730 and .740.) Despite posting a .777 OPS against lefties, New York’s abysmal .683 OPS against righties dragged down their team OPS to .701. 

The Yankees’ front office saw this and understood the assignment. In December 2023, the Yankees traded for left-handed outfielders Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto. At the time, Verdugo’s career OPS against right-handed pitchers was .807, and Soto’s was exactly 1.000. In addition, after struggling with concussions in 2023, Anthony Rizzo was finally healthy and ready to go for 2024. Not only do these additions provide better hitting against righties, but they also encourage teams to use lefties. The Yankees have been using the three lefties in the 2, 4, and 6 spots in their lineup. Doing so, while using the right-handed Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres in their 1, 3, 5, and 7 spots. The new rules state that a pitcher who is put in a game, cannot be replaced until he faces at least three batters. Therefore, if an opponent wants to bring in a left-hander to face the lefties at 2 and 4, the left-hander will be forced to face the 3-hitter. The Yankees’ number 3-hitter is a scary right-handed hitter by the name of Aaron Judge. With the switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera in the 9 spot, this concept works throughout the entire lineup. Sure enough, the four right-handed hitters I mentioned above, faced righties 81 percent of the time in 2023, and only 72 percent of the time in 2024.

Giancarlo Stanton’s batting average is a perfect example of this effect. In 341 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Stanton posted a .175 batting average, and as a result, a total average of .191. After seeing this, I thought he was done, I hoped the Yankees would eat the remainder of his contract and get rid of him. However, after facing righties 82 percent of the time in 2023, Stanton’s faced them only 70 percent of the time in 2024. While he still can’t hit a right-hander once so ever, he’s putting up a .263 batting average against lefties and a total .228 batting average. While a .228 batting average is still bad, it’s enough to allow his power to justify him being in the lineup. 

The New York Yankees have been one of the top franchises in the MLB since 2017. However, they haven’t been able to get over the hump and reach the World Series. They’ve consistently failed to meet expectations. Courtesy of their newly found strategic thinking, they’re already exceeding expectations. Hopefully, this will allow them to finally reach the World Series and maybe even win it. It’s still very early in the season, and only time will tell. 



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