Last week, the Detroit Lions signed Jared Goff to a 4-year 212-million-dollar contract extension. This is the second-largest contract by year, in the NFL. The market for quarterbacks and wide receivers is at an all-time high. Decent Quarterbacks expect north of 50 million dollars and star receivers expect north of 25 million dollars. Since the salary cap is only 255 million dollars, I doubt this is attainable. The Philadelphia Eagles are a perfect example. Jalen Hurts is being paid 51 million dollars a year, AJ Brown is being paid 32 million dollars a year, and DeVonta Smith is being paid 25 million dollars a year. That leaves 147 million dollars for everyone else. I don’t see how a team expects to build a good 53-man roster when 3 players are occupying 42% of their cap space.
Over in the MLB world, a similar phenomenon was developing in the early 2000s. In 2002, the Oakland Athletics and their general manager Billy Beane, announced to the MLB that if you’re smart enough, you can put together a great team without spending much money. Using statistics, with the 3rd-lowest payroll in the MLB, the 2002 Athletics won 103 games and made the playoffs. In 2004, the Boston RedSox took this concept to the next level. They used the same philosophy to break the “Curse of the Bambino” and win the World Series for the first time in 86 years. Over the past half-decade, the Tampa Bay Rays established that long-term success can also be accomplished without overspending. The Rays made the postseason in 5 consecutive seasons, without leaving the bottom 8 in payroll. I believe that this concept will leak over to the NFL in the near future. It may have already begun…
THE EFFECT OF THE INFLATED QUARTERBACK MARKET:
After signing his new 4-year, 212-million-dollar deal, Jared Goff has become the 2nd-highest-paid quarterback per year. The only man ahead of him is Joe Burrow at 5-years 275-million-dollars. I believe that these contracts spell trouble for the Lions and Bengals. If we look at two other quarterbacks who got massive contracts, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, we’ll see a significant regression in their supporting cast.
Only one year after Justin Herbert signed his 5-year 262.5-million-dollar deal, the Chargers had to clear house this offseason. In order to fit under the 255 million dollar salary cap, the Chargers had to let Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett walk in free agency, cut Mike Williams, and trade Keenan Allen. As of May 19th, the top skill players around Justin Herbert are JK Dobbins and Ladd McConkey. The Chargers are counting on these decent players to be stars, which they aren’t, and it’s not going to go well in the competitive AFC.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen’s 6-year 258-million-dollar contract isn’t the worst contract the Bills have made, but it’s still clogging a lot of cap space. In order to fit under the 255 million dollar salary cap, the Bills had to trade Stefon Diggs, let Gabe Davis walk in free agency, and cut Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White. The Dolphins proved their legitimacy last year, and if Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Jets will be good. Between the two, it’s very hard to imagine the weakened Bills will win the AFC East this year.
These two teams have regressed due to overspending on single players. They lost their “win now” window before they even accomplished much in said window. The Bengals and Lions both have stars who will be up for new contracts in the immediate future, such as Tee Higgins and Aidan Hutchinson. At the same time, they’ve already broken the bank for their quarterback and top receiver. Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are taking up 30% of the Bengals’ cap space, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff are taking up 33% of the Lions’ cap space. Much like the Chargers and Bills, it will be challenging for the Lions and Bengals to put 51 talented players around their two guys.
THE UPCOMING QUARTERBACK MARKET:
In the foreseeable future, a handful of proven quarterbacks will be up for new contracts. The top names on this list are Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love. In accordance, two of these teams have already been limiting themselves in an attempt to gear up for the mega contracts.
The Miami Dolphins have been on the brink of greatness for the past two seasons, in which they lost in their wildcard game twice. Logically, they would try to bring back a similar core and simply improve to get over the hump via the draft and practice. However, they cut multiple starters on the defensive side of the ball. The top names are corner Xavien Howard and linebacker Jerome Baker. With the Bills making even more pay cuts, and the Patriots in shambles, this would be their best chance to take over the AFC East. Nevertheless, they can’t make an aggressive push, because they’re clearing space to offer their quarterback a contract worth north of 50 million dollars per year.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys, have also been on the brink of greatness for the past few years. Dallas has made the playoffs in each of the past three years but has failed to get past the divisional round. Logically, they should be attempting to add one or two more pieces to push them over the hump. Their owner, Jerry Jones, openly said that his Cowboys are going “all in” this year. Nevertheless, they let stars Stephon Gilmore and Tony Pollard walk in free agency. The only signing they made in response was bringing back their aging former running back, Ezekiel Elliott. My only explanation is that they’re clearing space to offer Dak Prescott a record-setting contract.
The San Francisco 49ers have a bit more time than the Dolphins and Cowboys. They don’t have to resign Brock Purdy immediately. Nevertheless, the 49ers’ roster concerns me the most. The 49ers have an endless amount of star power on their squad and a lot of money will have to be dished out. Between guys like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Trent Richardson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kyle Juszczyk on offense, and guys like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, and Javon Kinlaw on defense, this roster cannot take a mega contract. If the 49ers give Purdy and Goff or Burrow-style deal, their roster will deteriorate throughout it.
The Green Bay Packers and Jordan Love are in a unique situation. Jordan Love didn’t start for the first 3 years of his career. Therefore, with his rookie contract approaching its end, he’s yet to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. Leading up to his first season as the established starter, the Packers gave him a 1-year 22-million-dollar extension. It’s nowhere near a mega contract, but it’s still much more than an average player’s salary. In the last year of his rookie contract, Jordan Love was incredible. He now enters the 1-year extension with the task of proving that he’s consistent and legit and that his 2023 season wasn’t a fluke. If he does so successfully he’ll be in line for a mega contract, similar to Goff and Burrow’s. The Green Bay Packers have to decide if they want to sign him now, and risk Love’s 2023 success being a fluke, or take the risk of letting him prove himself and financially handcuffing their organization for half a decade.
All four of these teams are seemingly in very solid situations and could be playoff teams for years to come. Nevertheless, if they mishandle their upcoming contract negotiations, things can spiral out of control very quickly. Therefore, they might want to look into the “Tampa Bay Rays” approach, which two other teams have already begun to take advantage of.
NFL TEAMS USING THE MONEYBALL APPROACH:
The first team I noticed using a page of the Rays’ playbook is the Minnesota Vikings. In 2023, the Vikings were held back by injuries to Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Nonetheless, in the big picture, they’ve had high-end offenses in 5 of the previous 7 years. They’ve done so by using a classic Rays’ trick: Instead of overpaying a player, they replace the player via the draft. When Stefon Diggs wanted a new contract, they traded him to the Bills for a 1st-round pick. While the Bills Diggs a 4-year 96-million-dollar extension, the Vikings used that pick on Justin Jefferson. Since then, Jefferson has outproduced Diggs by a significant margin while being paid over 20 million dollars less than him every year. When Dalvin Cook wanted a new contract, the Vikings gave their backup, Alexander Mattison more reps to see if he was a capable replacement. After they were satisfied with the results, they cut Cook. Cook signed a 7-million-dollar contract with the New York Jets. In 2023, Cook had a horrible season and was benched by the Jets. Meanwhile, Mattison put up better numbers than Cook, while being paid half of Cook’s salary. When Adam Thielen was up for a new contract, the Vikings let the Panthers sign him to a 4-year 64-million-dollar contract and replaced him by selecting Jordan Addison with the 23rd pick of the 2023 NFL draft. In 2023, Jordan Addison made 13 million dollars less than Thielen, but up 6 touchdowns more than him. This very offseason, when Kirk Cousins was up for a new contract, the Vikings let the Atlanta Falcons sign him to a 4-year 180-million-dollar deal. They replaced Cousins by drafting JJ McCarthy in the first round of the draft. With the great weapons and coaching McCarthy has around him, under his 4-million-dollar salary, he can help the Vikings make a run at a wildcard spot. Meanwhile, the quarterback situation in Atlanta is already causing drama.
The second team using a Tampa Bay Rays’ style strategy is the Houston Texans. The Rays are famous for making players better by teaming up players that play off each other's strengths. The Houston Texans have done so with multiple players and then placed CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans in the center of it all. Jonathan Greenard racked up 10.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in his first 3 seasons in the NFL. After taking over, DeMeco Ryans recognized that Greenard would play well off of a second similar pass rusher. This way the team can move around the two and mix and match the matchups. I believe that this was part of why the Texans traded up to select Will Anderson. In his first season alongside Anderson, Greenard set career highs with 12.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Nico Collins was a 3rd-round selection in the 2021 draft. In his first two seasons, Collins racked up 927 yards and 3 touchdowns. DeMeco Ryans understood that Collins had incredible potential, he simply needed other route runners to open up the field. Therefore, the Texans signed Dalton Schultz and drafted Tank Dell. While Schultz and Dell both had impressive 2023 seasons, Collins was their best route runner by far. He put up new career highs with 1,297 yards and 8 touchdowns. After drafting CJ Stroud, the young quarterback asked Ryans to bring in Tank Dell because he liked the way he played and ran routes. That was exactly the type of chemistry and strategy Ryans was looking for, so he made it happen in the 3rd-round. In only 11 games in 2023, Tank Dell put up 709 yards and 7 touchdowns. That’s incredible production for a 3rd-round pick. These types of moves are what allowed the Texans to transform from a 3-win team to a 10-win team in only a single offseason.
If only a handful of teams embrace these strategies it’ll reset the market. While it is much riskier to draft a rookie quarterback instead of paying an established one, it’ll help in the long run. A few of the quarterbacks in the market will have similar stories to Jameis Winston. After the 2019 season, Jameis Winston declined an extension from the Buccaneers and claimed he was worth 30 million dollars per year. No team gave him such a contract and after a long free agency, Winston signed a 1-year 1.1-million-dollar contract with the Saints, to be their backup. He’s been a backup quarterback ever since. If this happens to a couple of quarterbacks, the others will become afraid of falling victims themselves, and they’ll lower their asking prices. This would reset the market from its current wild 50 million dollars back to a number around 30 million dollars. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how the quarterback market will crash.
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