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Nathan Aronoff

The Super-Prospect Delusion Issue

Updated: May 5


Throughout Spring Training, the entire MLB media was drooling over baseball’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday. Jackson Holliday is the son, of the multi-time all-star and World Series-winning slugger, Matt Holliday. The 20-year-old shortstop, Jackson Holliday is the top prospect in the Baltimore Orioles’ system and the number-1 ranked prospect in the MLB. After originally not making the Orioles’ opening day big league roster, Holliday was called up a couple of weeks into the season. The baseball world entered a frenzy and expected Holliday to light the world on fire. Nevertheless, he’s done quite the opposite, so far. In his first 10 games, Holliday has gotten on base only 4 times, he’s struck out 18 times, his OPS is .170, and he has a WAR of -0.5. He’s been extremely disappointing, to say the least. 

Some are already calling the 20-year-old Jackson Holliday a “bust”. This claim is preposterous. How could we expect a 20-year-old kid to have instant success against adults who have been in the majors for years?! The MLB community has a bad habit of overhyping these young kids and then expecting them to be Mickey Mantle the moment they step foot on a big league diamond. This must stop. Jackson Holliday will be an incredible player, just give him time. To prove my point, here are two examples of players who got off to horrible starts and turned out great, and two examples of players who got off to incredible starts and slowed down:


WEAK START #1: AARON JUDGE:

On August 13th, 2016, the New York Yankees called up their 24-year-old outfield prospect, Aaron Judge. Since Judge played plenty of college and minor-league ball, he was expected to be relatively experienced for a call-up. However, the 27 games Judge played in 2016 didn’t go very smoothly. Judge batted an abysmal .167 with a laughable .263 on-base percentage. His decent power allowed the outfielder to put up a somewhat respectable .608 OPS. Despite his pathetic showing in 2016, the Yankees knew it takes some time, and put Judge in their 2017 opening-day lineup. It’s safe to say that their patience paid off. In 2017, Aaron Judge hit .284 and launched 52 home runs, winning himself the Rookie of the Year award and leading the Yankees to the ALCS. In 2022, Judge hit .311, launched 62 homers, won the American League MVP award, and led New York to the ALCS again. Last night, Judge hit his 261st career home run, passing Derek Jeter on the Yankees all-time list. After a laughable first showing, Aaron Judge is currently the 16th captain of the New York Yankees and one of the best hitters in the MLB.


WEAK START #2: MIKE TROUT:

On July 8th, 2011, the Los Angeles Angels called up their top prospect, 19-year-old outfielder, Mike Trout. Trout was a super-prospect phenom, the expectations were through the roof. Unfortunately, he was initially disappointing. In 40 games in 2011, Mike Trout batted .220 and was sent back to the minors before the season ended. Had the Angels not been patient, the story of Mike Trout could’ve ended there. However, they gave Trout another shot in 2012 and he lit the world on fire. In 139 games in 2012, Trout batted .326, launched 30 home runs, and stole 30 bases. Trout won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012, but I doubt there’s still room for it in his trophy case. From 2012 to 2020, Mike Trout won 8 Silver Slugger awards, 3 MVP awards, and finished in the top 5 for MVP every year he didn’t win. Mike Trout has only been healthy for the majority of the season 10 times, yet he’s been selected to 11 All-Star games. The same man whose batting average was lower than his weight in 2011, is arguably the greatest baseball player of all time. 


STRONG START #1: MIGUEL ANDUJAR:

On June 8th, 2017, the New York Yankees called up their 22-year-old infield prospect, Miguel Andujar. In his very brief stint with the big league club in 2017, Andujar was very impressive and earned himself an everyday role for the 2018 season. In 2018, the Yankees called up their top prospect, Gleyber Torres, but Andujar stole the show. In 149 games, Andujar batted .297, launched 27 home runs, hit 47 doubles, and put up an OPS of .855. He would’ve won Rookie of the Year, had he not come in 2nd behind a man by the name of Shohei Ohtani.

Andujar’s bat was electric, but his fielding was subpar. Therefore, before the 2019 season, the Yankees brought in Gio Urshela, a defensive specialist to sub in for Andujar late in the game. Big things were expected from Miguel Andujar in 2019, but only a few days into the season he suffered a a partial glenoid labrum tear. Since he was so excited about his 2019 season, he tried to delay surgery until after the season. In early May he attempted a return, but with the tear in his right shoulder, his swing was completely off. After re-aggravating his injury, on May 15th, he underwent season-ending surgery. Meanwhile, Gio Urshela put up a great season at the plate for the Yankees. Now that Urshela was the better player, both offensively and defensively, Andujar lost his job. Since the Yankees still wanted Andujar’s electric bat in the lineup, in 2020 they tried playing him in left field. However, the struggle to adjust to the outfield made Andujar distracted at the plate and he struggled. In 21 games in the shortened COVID season, Andujar batted .242, put up only 4 extra-base hits, and an OPS of .632. The Yankees were patient with the young player and tried fitting him in the next year. Nevertheless, in 45 games in 2021, Andujar’s stats were only slightly better than in 2020. Since he had slightly improved, the Yankees hoped he’d be back to his rookie form in 2022. Unfortunately, in his first 27 games in 2022, Andujar put up career lows with a .229 batting average and .531 OPS. On September 22nd, 2022, Andújar was designated for assignment by the New York Yankees.

Before the season ended, Andujar was claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates and played 9 games for them. In those 9 games, he did enough to earn himself a 1-year 1.5-million-dollar contract extension from Pittsburgh. Due to Pirates legend, Andrew McCutchen deciding to return to Pittsburgh, Andujar became the odd man out. He only played 30 games for the big league club in 2023, but was solid and posted an above-league average .776 OPS. Andujar’s play in 2023 earned him a 1-year 1.7-million-dollar contract from the Oakland Athletics. Andujar was expected to finally have a starting role again and a chance to prove he’s still got it. Haplessley, in late May, Andujar suffered a torn meniscus and would be out 4–6 weeks following surgery. Andujar is yet to make his Athletics debut, but as a Yankee fan who enjoyed watching him in 2018, I’ll be rooting for him. 


STRONG START #2: ELLY DE LA CRUZ:

Last season, the young 2023 Cincinnati Reds team exceeded expectations in the first half of the season. After noticing they had a shot to make the postseason, the Reds called up their top prospect, the 21-year-old Elly De La Cruz. Since I had researched De La Cruz earlier that year and determined he needed some more time in the minors, I was skeptical and suspected the Reds were rushing him. Nevertheless, after watching a few at-bats, just like the rest of the baseball community, I bought the Elly hype and was convinced he was the Messiah. In only the second game of his career, De La Cruz hit a 458-foot home run. He could hit for power, steal bases, and play gold-glove-caliber defense. We were all convinced he’d be the face of the league for years to come. Nonetheless, pitching coaches and their staffs slowly began to figure out how to get Elly De La Cruz to chase pitches out of the zone. After being on top of the world for two weeks, De la Cruz came crashing down. In 98 games in 2023, Elly De la Cruz put up a .235 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, a pathetic 34 percent strikeout rate, and an equally bad 32.8 percent chase rate. 

De La Cruz has been better to start the 2024 season. He’s lowered his chase rate from 32.8 percent (24th percentile) to 27.9 percent (43rd percentile). He does have all the tools and he will be a good player, but the lesson is that it takes time. Likewise with Jackson Holliday, it’ll take some time. We cannot expect these young kids in their early 20s to come in and instantly light up the league.


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