Almost every year, leading up to the NFL draft, many prospects are hyped up, especially quarterbacks. However, the reality is that approximately a third of the first-round picks are complete busts, a third become average players, and only the remaining third become stars. Since quarterback is the most difficult position in sports, the quarterback position is even more of a shot in the dark. Some classes are hyped up and deliver, such as the class of 2020, which produced four franchise quarterbacks in the first round; Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love. Other classes are hyped up and don’t deliver, such as the class of 2021, which produced four busts in the first round; Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones. Finally, there are classes like the class of 2022, not a single of the first six quarterbacks drafted in 2022 are current starters. This year's class is extremely hyped up. Six quarterbacks are potential first-round picks. Here’s my ranking and breakdown of the top 6 quarterbacks on the board:
6. BO NIX:
Upside: Bo Nix is a great quarterback prospect with all the physical attributes. He has a big 6-foot-3 and 215-pound frame and a great playmaking ability. The fact that he has 61 games of experience in college football is another big advantage and shouldn’t be overlooked. In most draft classes Nix would be one of the top quarterbacks on the board. His pro comparison is Drew Brees and he would fit well in Sean Payton’s system. As a fan of the Denver Broncos, I’d love to see him in blue and orange, working with Sean.
Concerns: Bo Nix failed at Auburn and was forced to transfer. The margin between his level of play at Auburn and Oregon is concerning. It suggests that he’s incapable of being successful in some systems. This is a major red flag, for teams who have early picks because they’re not good yet. Teams looking to build around a quarterback should stay away from Nix. Only teams that are a quarterback away from competing should consider drafting Bo Nix. His poor showing at the Senior Bowl validated these concerns and suggested that Nix should be selected between picks 20 and 40.
Upside: Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most accurate quarterback prospects I’ve ever seen. His precision on throws between 20 and 40 yards downfield is unmatched. Much like Nix, his experience is a big advantage, and in most classes, he would be considered one of the top quarterback prospects. Furthermore, the quarterback’s job is to win the game, and Michael Penix is incredible at winning big games. Since Penix transferred to Washington, the Huskies have been 10W-1L against ranked opponents. In those 11 games, Penix went 3W-0L and won a PAC-12 championship game against Bo Nix and the rival Oregon Ducks, he also beat the Texas Longhorns in two bowl games.
Concerns: Michael Penix Jr. is a left-handed quarterback, which is rare in the NFL. Left-handed quarterbacks flip the field, making it a completely different game. Therefore, some NFL teams avoid lefties because they’re unsure their coaching and planning for righties will work the same. In addition, Penix isn’t extremely fast and doesn’t have an outstanding arm. In six seasons of college football, he only ran for 265 yards. With so many other good options available, there’s no reason to reach and draft Penix in the top 10.
4. DRAKE MAYE;
Upside: At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Drake Maye is a natural animal. In addition to his ability to run past or through defenders, Maye has a cannon for an arm and will burn you with the long ball. In his past two seasons at North Carolina, in only 26 games, Maye threw 62 touchdowns and ran for another 16, while throwing for over 300 yards per game! If used right, Drake Maye can be lethal in a triple-option scheme, especially in the red zone. If a team with a good coaching staff gets its hands on Drake Maye, look out!
Concerns: Drake Maye has a very “schoolyard football” style. His size and strength allowed him to get away with it in the weak ACC. Playing in a weak conference often hides a quarterback’s downside, for example, the last two UNC quarterbacks to start in the NFL, Sam Howell and Mitch Trubisky, didn’t do very well. It’s hard to tell if Maye’s “schoolyard football” style will work in the NFL and it’s even harder to tell if he’s capable of reading a complex defense. While his upside is most definitely worth an early pick, I wouldn’t trade away the house to trade up for Drake Maye.
3. J.J. MCCARTHY:
Upside: J.J. McCarthy’s draft stock has been skyrocketing lately. McCarthy is a very accurate quarterback who knows how to run an offense. He impressed many at the NFL combine, before really showing off at Michigan’s pro day. Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh, who previously coached McCarthy in college, had the following to say about his pro day: “I've been to a lot of pro day workouts and watched quarterbacks throw, that was the best I've ever seen a quarterback do at a pro day”. Furthermore, much like Penix, McCarthy is a proven winner, especially in big games. In his last two years at Michigan, McCarthy went 7W-1L against ranked opponents. In those 8 games, he beat Ohio State, Michigan’s nemesis, twice, and won a national championship.
Concerns: J.J. McCarthy is 197 pounds, almost 30 pounds lighter than the average NFL quarterback. In addition, McCarthy played in a run-first offense his entire college career. A successful running game forces the defense to bring more players into the box, which opens up the passing game and makes the quarterback's job much easier. If McCarthy is drafted by a team with a poor run game, he might be in trouble. On top of that, while McCarthy did show off the arm strength at his pro day, he’s never shown it in-game. McCarthy’s ability to hit a deep ball while facing a pass rush is a huge question mark.
2. CALEB WILLIAMS:
Upside: Caleb Williams is a generational talent with pure athleticism. If I were to describe Williams’ game to someone who’s never seen any of his film, I’d say that he’s a combination of Mahomes, Cam Newton, and LeBron James. Williams won the Heisman in 2022 and then went back to USC to develop even more. Drafting Caleb Williams will most definitely bring a new dynamic to any offense. It’s also important to note that Williams played behind a poor offensive line this season and is no stranger to pass rush.
Concerns: Caleb Williams is a child, and I have serious concerns regarding his ability to lead an NFL franchise. Williams was seen after a game literally crying to his mom. In addition, in a post-loss press conference, Williams said that he wanted to “go home and cuddle with my dog and watch some shows.” It’s good to have passion for the game, but showing such weakness and defeat isn’t acceptable for a man who’s supposed to lead your team into battle.
Williams paints his nails and carries shiny accessories as a cry for attention. This past week, when Williams was spotted courtside at a USC basketball game, Jack McGuire tweeted about Caleb’s pink phone. When Williams saw the tweet, he had an opportunity to put the maturity concerns to bed by approaching the matter like a professional. Instead, he chose a more juvenile option and made fun of McGuire’s appearance. Doesn’t seem like the type of guy you want in your locker room, especially not as a leader.
Here’s the cherry on top. Earlier this year, around November, Mike Florio reported that Williams' representatives were telling NFL teams that Williams and his father wanted partial ownership of whatever team drafts him. If they’re serious about this, these men belong in an insane asylum! Patrick Mahomes, who has won 3 Super Bowls and 2 MVPs, doesn’t have partial ownership of his team, so why would Williams, who’s yet to play a single NFL snap, deserve ownership?!?! This man is a diva. In my opinion, no matter how talented he is, Williams’ odd personality is too much of a red flag for him to be taken with the first overall pick.
Concerns: Regarding Jayden Daniels, I’m only concerned about one thing, his completion percentage at Arizona State. Daniels played his first three years of college football at Arizona State and wasn’t good. After only completing 62.4 percent of his passes in 29 games, he transferred to LSU. The completion percentage is a concern, especially for the team in possession of the first overall pick, the Chicago Bears. The Bears recently traded away a great running quarterback whose downside is his lack of efficiency. Therefore, they may not want to draft Daniels, because he’s a great running quarterback whose downside is his lack of efficiency.
Upside: Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy this past season, and rightfully so. In only 12 games this season, Daniels threw 40 passing touchdowns and ran for another 10. That’s 4.16 touchdowns per game! Daniels brings the same breakaway speed and athleticism that Fields brought Chicago’s offense. However, Daniels is a much better passer, as he threw for 317.6 yards per game last season.
What excites me the most about Jayden Daniels, is that he’s a sure thing. Daniels has already faced and overcome every challenge a quarterback faces when entering the NFL. Daniels went to Arizona State as the hot-shot 4-star recruit, who will become the new face of the football program. Nevertheless, Daniels struggled and was benched, he lost it all. However, instead of falling apart like most young men would in his situation, Daniels bet on himself. He transferred to LSU, where while the surrounding cast was much better, Daniels would have to earn the starting job. Daniels worked hard and overcame the adversity. While redesigning his game, Daniels became one of, if not the best player in college football. The team rallied around him, as both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. also emerged as top-tier players. After going 6W-7L losses the previous year, Daniels revived LSU’s program and led them to consecutive 10-win seasons. This is the college parallel to what CJ Stroud did for the Houston Texans this year. Not only has Daniels become an incredible quarterback, but he’s also a hard-working leader and a culture changer. In my opinion, the team that drafts Jayden Daniels will instantly become a winning franchise.
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