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Nathan Aronoff

THE WEEK 18 AFC PLAYOFF SCENARIO GUIDE

WEEK 18:

The final week of the 2023 NFL season is upon us. With that said, six AFC playoff spots are still up for grabs. There is an infinite amount of potential outcomes and possibilities. To make things less confusing, I made a list of the relevant matchups and each team’s potential landing spot.


THE MATCHUPS:

(1) #6 BILLS (10W-6L) @ #2 DOLPHINS (11W-5L)

(2) #3 CHIEFS (10W-6L) @ E CHARGERS 

(3) #4 JAGUARS (9W-7L) @ E TITANS

(4) #5 BROWNS (11W-5L) @ E BENGALS

(5) #8 TEXANS (9W-7L) @ #7 COLTS (9W-7L)

(6) #9 STEELERS (9W-7L) @ #1 RAVENS (13W-3L)



THE TEAMS:

#2 MIAMI DOLPHINS (11W-5L):

The Dolphins host the Bills on Sunday night in a battle for the AFC East title. If the Dolphins win, they’ll clinch the #2 seed. However, if they lose, they will become a wildcard team, and their exact seeding will be determined by the outcome of the (4) matchup above. If the Browns win, the Dolphins will be the #6 seed, but if the Browns lose, since the teams haven’t faced off, it would be determined by divisional record. In their divisions, Miami is currently 4W-1L while Cleveland is 3W-2L, so if they both lose, Miami will be the #5 seed and Cleveland the #6


#3 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10W-6L):

The Chiefs head to Los Angeles this week to face the already-eliminated Chargers. The Chiefs have already locked up the AFC West, but can still move up or down among the division winners. The Chiefs lost to the Bills in week 14, therefore, even if the Dolphins lose in game (1), the Chiefs cannot move up to the #2 seed. If Kansas City loses to Los Angeles, an AFC South team may leapfrog them and take the #3 seed. If the Jaguars beat the Titans, they will win the AFC South, and since the Chiefs beat the Jags in week 2, the Chiefs would be safe at #3. However, if both the Chiefs and Jaguars lose, the winner of matchup (5) would be tied with Kansas City. The #3 seed would be determined by divisional record. A week 18 loss will put the Chiefs at 3W-3L in their division, while the Texans and Colts are both 3W-2L, so the Chiefs would be pushed down to the #4 seed. 


#4 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9W-7):

The Jaguars are currently tied for first place in the AFC South with the Colts and Texans. While the other two face each other, the Jags head to Tennessee to play the already-eliminated Titans. Due to the Jaguars' strong 4W-1L divisional record, if they win, they will clinch the AFC South and the #4 seed. However, if they lose, the winner of the (5) matchup between the Colts and Texans will steal the division from Jacksonville. If the Jaguars lose the division they can still get in the #7 seed as a wildcard team because they beat the Steelers in week 8, unless the Steelers beat the #1 seed Baltimore Ravens. The loser of the Colts versus Texans game cannot steal their spot because the Jaguars have 4 division wins.


#5 CLEVELAND BROWNS (11W-5L):

The Cleveland Browns will travel across Ohio this weekend to face the already-eliminated Cincinnati Bengals. Even though the Ravens have already clinched the AFC North, the Browns can lock up the #5 seed with an Ohio Bowl victory. If the Browns lose and the Bills beat the Dolphins in game (1), since Miami has the stronger divisional record, the Browns would drop to the #6 seed.


#6 BUFFALO BILLS (10W-6L):

The red-hot Buffalo Bills have a chance to steal the AFC East this week in their SNF matchup with the Dolphins. If Buffalo wins, since they beat the Chiefs in week 14, they will lock up the #2 seed. However, if they lose, many scenarios come into play. Due to the Steelers’ strong divisional record of 4W-1L and Buffalo’s poor divisional record (3W-2L), if the Bills lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh will leapfrog Buffalo. If the Jaguars win, because of Buffalo’s weak divisional record (3W-2L), the Bills will fall behind the winner of the (5) matchup between the Texans and Colts. If the Bills lose and the Steelers and Jaguars win, the Bills will miss the playoffs entirely. 


#7 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9W-7L)/#8 HOUSTON TEXANS (9W-7L):

The Colts are currently tied for first place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Texans. Their crucial divisional matchup this week against the Texans will determine their fate. If the Jaguars win, they will clinch the AFC South, but if not, the winner of the Colts-Texans game will steal the division title. If both the Jaguars and Chiefs lose, the winner will climb to the #3 seed. However, if the Jags take care of business in Tennessee, the Colts and Texans will be fighting for a wildcard spot. Since both teams beat the Steelers, even if the Steelers beat the Ravens in game (6), the winner of game (5) will get a wildcard spot. The #6 seed and the #7 seed will be determined between the Bills and the winning team via their divisional records. Both the Texans and Colts would take the #6 seed over the Bills. Due to their lack of division wins, there is no scenario where both teams get in. 


#9 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9W-7L);

The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently the least likely to make the playoffs. They can still find their way in if they beat the #1 seed Baltimore Ravens. The Cleveland Browns have locked down one wildcard spot, but the remaining two are still up in the air. Due to the Steelers’ strong divisional record of 4W-1L and Buffalo’s poor divisional record (3W-2L), if the Bills lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh can leapfrog Buffalo. The Steelers lost to both the Colts and Texans, so they would need the Jaguars to lose as well. 



Now you know who to root for this weekend. If you enjoyed this article, make sure to join our NFL Playoff Bracket Challenge here!

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