In 2023, the American League Central was the oddest division in the MLB. No specific team in the AL Central was a big-time contender, making the division anyone’s ball game. Eventually, The Minnesota Twins emerged ahead of the pack and took the division crown. However, in 2024, I doubt anybody will be able to pull ahead and the Central will be completely unpredictable. With that said, here’s my attempt to predict how the most chaotic division in baseball will shape out:
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX:
The White Sox entered 2023 with high expectations and did everything but meet them. The White Sox may claim they went 61W-101L because the injury bug held them back. However, the stats show a different story. Aside from Luis Robert Jr., not a single White Sox hitter eclipsed .800 OPS or 25 home runs. The only pleasant surprise on the team was third baseman Jake Burger, who they traded to the Miami Marlins at the deadline. Since Chicago hasn’t added any big names in the offseason, there is no reason to expect them to improve in 2024.
Seven out of Chicago’s top ten prospects are expected to arrive in the MLB between 2024 and 2025. Therefore, I don’t expect them to compete in this upcoming season, rather they’ll gear up for a big run in 2025. The entire offseason, there has been speculation around the White Sox potentially trading away some veteran starting pitchers, including their ace Dylan Cease. While a deal is yet to be done, I do expect Chicago to move either Dylan Cease or Mike Clevinger before opening day. For now, their batting will continue to be lackluster and their pitching will most likely take a step back. I expect the Chicago White Sox to win between 55 and 65 games in 2024.
4. MINNESOTA TWINS:
The Minnesota Twins did win 87 games, the American League Central, and a wildcard series in 2023. Nevertheless, I expect them to take a leap in the wrong direction in 2024. 29 of Minnesota’s 87 wins came against division rivals in 2023, and I expect the division to be stronger and the Twins to be weaker in 2024.
The Twins’ 2023 pitching staff was headlined by their ace Sonny Gray. Gray recently signed a 3-year 75-million-dollar deal with the Cardinals. In 32 starts for Minnesota last year, Gray pitched 184 innings to the tune of a 2.79 ERA. Losing said production will take a handful of wins off the board for Minnesota in 2024. In addition, the Twins recently traded away one of the cornerstones of their franchise, second baseman Jorge Polanco. While they did get a great prospect return from the Seattle Mariners, they won’t have either Polanco or the prospects in the lineup in 2024. Losing Polanco’s .789 OPS (4th on the team) will be a major blow. I expect the Minnesota Twins to win between 65 and 75 games in 2024.
3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS:
The Kansas City Royals were abysmal in 2023, putting up an embarrassing 56W-106L record. However, I have a belief that they will take a large stride forward in 2024. The Royals had 6 players age 25 or younger in their starting lineup last year. Said players will continue to develop and improve, Especially Bobby Witt. Bobby Witt Jr. had a breakout season in 2023 and will likely continue improving into 2024 and put up MVP-caliber numbers. That isn’t a crazy thing to say, because his 2023 stats were nearly there. Last season, Witt was the only shortstop in the American League to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases, and he did so while slashing .276/.319/.495. If Witt can improve his walk rate just a bit, he will become one of the top hitters in the league.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has been throwing cash everywhere this offseason. The Royals have added a handful of veterans this offseason, giving 7 new players 7 digit contracts. A few of the most notable acquisitions were starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, relief pitcher Will Smith, outfielder Hunter Renfroe, and infielder Adam Frazier. Lugo and Wacha are both veterans with career ERAs under 4. They will provide some stability to the back of the Royals’ rotation, which was one of the worst in the league last year. Will Smith is a veteran reliever who also has a sub-4 career ERA and has pitched in 25 playoff games. Adam Frazier is a solid utility player who can play the corners of the outfield and the middle of the infield. Frazier has a career batting average of .269, 25 points above Kansas City’s .244 team average in 2023. Hunter Renfroe is my favorite of KC’s signings. Renfroe is a power right fielder who averages 34 home runs per 162 games played. Renfroe has a cannon for an arm out in right field and is capable of taking runs off the board in the field as well. The only reason Renfroe isn’t known as a star is because of his low .239 career batting average.
Between the young guys developing, the rotation being strengthened, and the addition of two solid bats to the lineup, Kansas City should not be overlooked, but I’ll still low-ball. I expect the Kansas City Royals to win between 70 and 80 games in 2024, narrowly beating out Minnesota for third place in the Central.
2. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS:
The Cleveland Guardians were a very average team in 2023, finishing with a 76W-86L record. Cleveland was led by their pitching last season, as their staff came in 9th in the MLB with a 3.96 ERA. Despite rumors swirling regarding a potential Shane Bieber trade, Cleveland has maintained an almost identical staff. Four of their six most used pitchers last year are age 24 or under and will continue to improve and develop in 2024. If they play their cards correctly, Cleveland can easily be one of the top pitching teams this upcoming season.
On the other side, Cleveland’s lineup was underwhelming at the plate in 2023. However, they’re expecting some reinforcements in 2024. Both first base prospect Kyle Manzardo and middle infield prospect Brayan Rocchio are expected to make their MLB debuts this upcoming season. Both Rocchio and Manzardo are top-100 prospects (in the entire MLB) and should be impact players immediately. If Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor continue mashing, the Guardians can make a run at a wildcard spot. I expect the Cleveland Guardians to win between 80 and 85 games in 2024.
1. DETROIT TIGERS:
Under the radar, in 2023 the Detroit Tigers put together their best season since 2016. From 2017 until 2022 the Tigers were a laughing stock, winning .391 percent of their games. However, in 2023, they showed their fans reason to be hopeful. They finished strong winning 20 of their final 30 games, leading to anticipation of what the 2024 season has in store. Their pitching staff put up a middle-of-the-pack 4.24 ERA (17th in the MLB), while their lineup struggled, scoring 4.08 runs per game (28th in the MLB).
Nevertheless, I expect Detroit’s lineup to get the job done in 2024. Detroit’s two best hitters last season, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene were both rookies who missed a significant amount of games. Both should develop and should play more in 2024. In addition, the analytics imply that Detroit’s first baseman, Spencer Torkelson will have a big 2024 season. Last season, Spencer Torkelson was 12th in the MLB in “hard-hit” balls with 223, yet was 78th in OPS with an OPS of .759. If my logic is correct, Torkelson has simply been unlucky and he should have a break-out 2024 season. I expect all three hitters to surpass 30 homers in 2024 while batting above .250. Furthermore, Detroit has 2 top-100 prospects (in the entire MLB) who are expected to join the Tigers’ lineup in 2024. The bats of infield prospects Jace Jung and Colt Keith should be great additions to the lineup. Between Carpenter, Greene, and Akil Baddoo in the outfield, and Torkelson, Keith, Jung, and Javier Baez in the infield, Detroit’s going to hit the ball hard and score a lot of runs this season. I expect the Detroit Tigers to win between 90 and 95 games in 2024, and win the American League Central for the first time since 2014.
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