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Nathan Aronoff

Way Too Early AL East Predictions

The American League East was one of the MLB's most competitive divisions in 2023. Multiple teams in the American League East have made big moves this offseason to acquire or dump star players. With that said, here’s what I think the division will look like in 2024:


5. BOSTON REDSOX

The Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the East in 2023 with a record of 78W-84L. I don’t love any of the moves they have made so far this winter, therefore I believe they’ll finish last again in 2024. The Sox traded away their longtime ace Chris Sale who accounted for a 6W-5L record and a 4.30 ERA over 103 innings in 2023. The only move they made to replace Sale was the signing of Lucas Giolito. Giolito had a terrible record of 8W-15L and an ERA approaching 5 in 2023, certainly a downgrade from Sale. Not to mention the fact that they overpaid to get him.

Boston also lost infielder Justin Turner and outfielder Alex Verdugo this offseason. Turner and Verdugo accounted for 150 of the team’s 734 RBIs in 2023. The players the Sox brought in to replace them are infielder Vaughn Grissom (via the Chris Sale trade) and outfielder Tyler O'Neill (via trade from Cardinals). In 41 games in 2023, Grissom put up decent stats yet failed to earn a spot on the Braves everyday lineup. Meanwhile, in 72 games in 2023, O’Neill batted an abysmal .231 and was an automatic out at times. To say the least, Boston wasn’t impressive in 2023 and has only gotten worse. I expect the Boston Red Sox to win somewhere from 65 to 75 games in 2024. 


4. TAMPA BAY RAYS

The Tampa Bay Rays were a great team in 2023, winning 99 games and earning the top wildcard spot in the American League. The Rays’ season ended disappointingly when they lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Texas Rangers. The absence of their star shortstop Wander Franco was palpable in the postseason. Franco got into legal trouble late in the year and it doesn’t seem as if he will return to the major leagues anytime soon. The Tampa lineup will not be the same without his .819 OPS in the heart of it. 

In addition, the Rays traded away the ace of their rotation, Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. Glasnow was great in 2023, putting up a 10W-7L record with a 3.53 ERA. Tampa already had some concerns regarding depth in their starting rotation and it’s only gotten worse. Between the absence of Franco in the lineup, Glasnow in the rotation, and a loaded AL East, I believe the Rays will take a major step back in 2024. I am aware that the Rays seem to make it work with new players every year, but it’s never been to this scale. Besides Randy Arozarena, nobody on that team scares me. I expect the Tampa Bay Rays to win somewhere from 80 to 85 games in 2024.


3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Toronto Blue Jays had an 89W-73L record in 2023. The Jays made a couple of big swings at top free agents, but have come up empty so far. As a general rule in the world of sports, if you’re not moving forward, you’re moving backward. Especially since Brandon Belt’s and Matt Chapman’s departure this offseason, there’s no reason to be excited about the Jays. I still like their core of Vladdy, Bo Bichette, and George Springer, so they won’t necessarily be a bad team. I expect the Toronto Blue Jays to win somewhere from 80 to 85 games in 2024 and narrowly beat out the Rays for 3rd place in the division. 


2. NEW YORK YANKEES

The New York Yankees had a very disappointing year in 2023, only winning 82 games, despite entering the season with championship aspirations. The season sent a shockwave through their system, resulting in one of the most aggressive offseasons we’ve seen from the Yanks since Hal Steinbrenner took over in 2008. The Yankees have traded for two left-handed outfielders, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Not only do Soto and Verdugo add two bats with high OBPs and low strikeout rates to the lineup, but they also provide lineup protection for the big right-handed bats the Yankees already had. With Soto and Verdugo in the lineup, I expect Judge, Stanton, Volpe, and Torres to face left-handed pitching much more frequently and the results will show. If Rizzo and LeMahieu can stay healthy, this will be a scary lineup in 2024.

Additionally, the Yankees have also added Marcus Stroman to their starting rotation. Check out the article I wrote on Stroman. As of now, the Yankees have very solid pitchers at their 1, 3, 4, and 5 spots, but they are counting on Carlos Rodon to be their number 2 starter, which concerns me. New York still needs to add another starting pitcher before I can consider them a first-place team (As a fan, I would love to see them sign Trevor Bauer. Between Cole, Stroman, and Bauer all having controversial/confrontational personalities, they would embrace the villain role. There’s no better way to restore the “Evil Empire”). Nonetheless, I expect them to bounce back in 2024. I expect the New York Yankees to win somewhere from 95 to 100 games in 2024. 


  1. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Baltimore Orioles had a breakout year in 2023, in which they posted a 101W-61L record. Baltimore’s lineup is young and will only improve in 2024. With the arrival of baseball’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday on the horizon, this lineup will be filthy. However, I am concerned about their pitching. Baltimore’s leader in wins in 2024, Kyle Gibson (15W-9L), recently signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, leaving a gaping hole in their rotation. In addition, Baltimore’s closer, Felix Bautista, recently underwent Tommy John surgery and won’t be available for the entirety of the 2024 season. The Orioles did sign Craig Kimbrel as a short-term replacement but his 3.26 2023 ERA isn’t comparable to Bautista’s 1.48. I expect the Baltimore Orioles to win somewhere from 95 to 100 games in 2024. The division crown will come down to coin flip between New York and Baltimore and as a pessimistic Yankee fan, I know Aaron Boone will find a way to blow it. 



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