top of page
Nathan Aronoff

Way Too Early AL West Predictions

The American League West was one of, if not the most competitive divisions in the MLB in 2023. Three teams were still in play for the division crown with only two games left in the season. I expect the West to be even more entertaining in 2024. Even though the offseason is far from over and impact players such as Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell are still free agents, I will attempt to predict how each team will do next year. Here’s how I expect the AL West to look in 2024:


5. LOS ANGELES ANGELS:

*If you haven’t already, click here to read my article discussing why I believe the Angels will become a bottom-tier team over the next few years. 

The Angels were awful in the final stretch of last season, going 8W-19L in September. The Angels lost their top pitcher and hitter this past offseason (both Shohei Ohtani). They also failed to bring back a few other key pieces such as Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela. I don’t believe in Trout or Rendon’s ability to stay healthy and consistent. Therefore, I see no reason to say they’ll improve, and I do see multiple reasons to say they’ll regress. I believe the Los Angeles Angels will lose over 100 games in 2024. Hopefully, that’ll be enough to convince them to fire their general manager Perry Minasian. 


4. OAKLAND(?) ATHLETICS:

Calling the 2023 Oakland Athletics abysmal would be disrespecting abysmal teams. Nevertheless, I believe they’ll take a step in the right direction in 2024. The three young bats of catcher Shea Langeliers (age 25), outfielder Esteury Ruiz (age 24), and second baseman Zack Gelof (age 23) made major progress in 2023 and should be above-average starters in 2024. Meanwhile, two of Oakland’s top three prospects, pitcher Mason Miller and outfielder Denzel Clarke are expected to make the 2024 major league roster. The Athletics won’t go worst-to-first by any means, but they certainly will not go 50W-112L again. I expect the Oakland Athletics to win between 65 and 75 in 2024. 


3. SEATTLE MARINERS:

The Seattle Mariners went 88W-74L in 2023 and narrowly missed the playoffs. Seattle’s pitching rotation contains a terrifying three-headed monster on the top of it. In 2023, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby were the only trio of teammates to each pitch at least 190 innings while all of their ERAs were under 3.75. Their rotation will only improve next season with the arrival of Seattle’s top pitching prospect, Emerson Hancock. This team would be a nightmare to face in a playoff series, but they must reach the playoffs first. 

I fear that reaching the playoffs might be tough for the Mariners because I don’t love their lineup in such a stacked division. Last season, the Texas Rangers scored 881 runs and the Houston Astros scored 827 runs, while the Seattle Mariners only scored 758. The Mariners’ run product is expected to take a hit because they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Suarez was second on the Mariners in RBIs in 2023, with 96. None of their top 5 prospects are expected to be ready this year, so Seattle can’t turn to their farm system to replace the production. While I do expect Julio Rodriguez to play his way into the MVP conversation, he won’t be able to outscore Texas and Houston by himself. 

I’ve seen a few analysts saying Seattle may be one of the top teams in the American League in 2024. I do hate being the bearer of bad news, but Mariner fans shouldn’t buy the hype. I expect Seattle’s 2024 season to be very similar to their previous one, as they’ll win between 85 and 90 games. 


2. HOUSTON ASTROS:

In 2023, the Houston Astros failed to reach the World Series for the first time since the 2020 shortened season. Nonetheless, the Astros were still incredible. Houston won 90 games and their 6th division title in the past 7 years. Their lineup scored 827 runs (5th in the MLB) and their pitching staff put up a 3.94 ERA (8th in the MLB), all while they only got 90 games from Jose Altuve, 114 games from Yordan Alvarez, and 11 starts from Justin Verlander. If they can stay healthy in 2024, the Astros are going to be hard to beat.

In addition, on January 22nd, Houston handed Josh Hader a 5-year deal worth 95 million dollars. Hader put up an absurd 1.28 ERA in 2023 and will be a weapon on the back end of the Astros’ bullpen. Houston’s bullpen posted a 3.56 ERA (6th in the MLB) last season, now that they have added Hader, they might be the top stable in baseball. As a Yankee fan, I’m terrified. I expect the Houston Astros to top their 2023 season by winning between 95 and 100 games in 2024. 


  1. TEXAS RANGERS:

*If you haven’t already, click here to read my article discussing why I believe the Texas Rangers are set up to become the MLB’s next dynasty. 

The 2023 Texas Rangers went 90W-72L and led the American League with 881 runs scored. Then, they got hot in the playoffs and went 13W-4L and led the MLB with 97 runs on their way to winning their first-ever World Series. Much like the Astros, the Rangers were successful despite some of their best players missing time due to injury. The Rangers’ best hitter, Corey Seager only played 119 games in the regular season, and their best pitcher, Jacob deGrom underwent season-ending surgery after only 6 starts. If they can stay healthy, the 2024 Rangers are going to be hard to beat. 

Furthermore, the Rangers are expected to add three of their top prospects to their major league roster in 2024. We already saw outfielder Evan Carter in the final stretch of 2023 and he was incredible. Carter put on a clinic in the postseason, slashing .300/.417/.500 while playing a key role in the Rangers’ championship run. Meanwhile, outfielder Wyatt Langford tore up the minor leagues, somehow reaching AAA after only 39 games in the Rangers’ system. Alongside Adolis Garcia, the Texas outfielders will be a dynamic trio for years to come. In addition, pitching prospect Jack Leiter is expected to make his major league debut in 2024. Leiter was unhittable in his two college baseball seasons at Vanderbilt. He put up a 2.08 ERA and struck out 9.5 batters per start. If Texas can resign Jordan Montgomery, their starting rotation will be almost as good as their lineup. Here’s their potential rotation and each pitcher’s 2023 ERA: 1. Jacob deGrom (2.67 ERA) 2. Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA) 3. Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA) 4. Jack Leiter 5. Dane Dunning (3.70 ERA). I expect the Texas Rangers to be the top team in the American League and win between 100 and 105 games in 2024. I would’ve even said between 105 and 110, but there are too many moving pieces, and not everything can go perfectly.


15 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page