With a league-low 21 games between first and last place, the National League Central was one of the most competitive divisions in 2023. The Central contained a couple of young exciting teams who made exhilarating playoff pushes late in the year. I’m excited to see these teams run it back in 2024 with another year of experience under their belts. With that said, here’s how I expect the National League Central to turn out:
5. Milwaukee Brewers:
There’s a popular misconception that the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the top teams in baseball. However, they only won 92 games in one of the weakest divisions in the league, their lineup only ranked 17th in runs scored, and they were bounced in the first round at home.
In addition, they’ve gotten much worse since the end of last season. As I previously mentioned, their lineup was below average, so they only won the division last year due to elite management by Craig Counsell and their pitching staff putting up a league-low 3.71 ERA. Counsell left town this offseason to manage Milwaukee’s division rival Chicago Cubs so that the Brew Crew will be extremely reliant on their pitching staff. Said pitching staff might’ve been able to carry the load had the Brewers not traded away their best arm, Corbin Burnes. In 32 starts for Milwaukee in 2023, Burnes went 10W-8L while posting an incredible 3.39 ERA over 194, earning his 4th consecutive top-10 finish in Cy Young voting and third consecutive All-Star selection. It is safe to say that Milwaukee’s pitching will not be the same without Corbin Burnes. Between the Brewers getting weaker and the competition in the division getting stronger, Milwaukee will take a major step back this year. I expect the Milwaukee Brewers to win between 70 and 75 games in 2024.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates:
Under the radar, the Pittsburgh Pirates saw exactly what they wanted from their team in 2023. Despite their rising star, shortstop Oniel Cruz missing 153 games due to a fractured fibula, the Pirates won 76 games, 14 more than the previous year. If Pittsburgh gets a solid healthy season from Cruz, they can very much make some noise in the wildcard race, especially in the weaker NL. Oniel Cruz isn’t the only reason to be optimistic about Pittsburgh. The Pirates’ young pitching staff showed some promise in 2023, with 3 starters in their 20s posting sub-5 ERAs. Their young and talented rotation will only get younger and better in the near future. That is because they have 3 pitching prospects in the MLB’s top 100 expected to make the MLB this year, including super-prospect Paul Skenes. In Skenes' final season of college ball at LSU, he went 13W-2L while pitching to a 1.69 ERA on his way to leading the Tigers to a national championship. Skenes looked just as good in 5 games in the minors so far and should be a great piece on the front end of Pittsburgh’s rotation for years to come.
Nevertheless, it is hard to get overly excited about the Pirates because they lack depth almost everywhere. The late innings will be an issue, even after signing Aroldis Chapman, they only have 3 or 4 trustworthy arms in the bullpen. In addition, they only have 5 batters on their roster that had over .700 OPSs in 2023. Even with Oniel Cruz back, the bottom of their lineup will be a mess. Their playoff hopes will come down to whether Ke'Bryan Hayes steps up or not. Hayes is an elite defender with the potential to be just as good at the plate, but he’s yet to break out offensively. If this is the year, Hayes and the Pirates will shock a lot of people. I expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to win between 80 and 85 games in 2024.
3. Chicago Cubs:
The Chicago Cubs really found it in the second half of the 2023 season. Chicago came back from the dead to make a legit playoff push in September and only fell one game short. The only reason I have them in third is because they’re yet to resign either of their key departing free agents. Marcus Stroman who pitched 136 innings over 27 games while posting a very solid 3.95 ERA for the Cubs in 2023, recently signed a 2-year 37-million-dollar deal with the Yankees. Chicago did a decent job replacing Stroman, by bringing in Shōta Imanaga from Japan. Imanaga isn’t as good as Stroman, but he’s more consistent and a good fit in Chicago. Meanwhile, the best hitter in the Cubs’ 2023 lineup, Cody Bellinger who was a key part of their resurgence, remains a free agent despite having extensive talks with the team.
If they do manage to bring back Bellinger, they’re going to be very good, because all the other pieces are in place. Chicago recently brought over former Brewers’ manager, Craig Counsell. Counsell is incredible at managing the bullpen and the lineup. I believe he was a big part of Milwaukee’s success in 2023 and should significantly improve the Cubs’ on-field results this season. Counsell is inheriting a young lineup that can hit the cover off the ball. Chicago ranked 6th in the MLB in runs scored last season. With inexperienced players such as Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner coming back for another year, they should only get better. Since we still don’t know if Cody Bellinger will be in their lineup in 2024 it is hard to predict their record. Nevertheless, I expect the Chicago Cubs to win between 80 and 90 games in 2024, narrowly beating the Pirates for 3rd place.
2. St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals had a down year in 2023, to say the least. St. Louis only won 71 games and finished last in the Central division. However, I expect a major bounce-back year in 2024. Their offense ranked 19th in runs scored, which isn’t horrible. They should be better in 2024 because I don’t understand how a lineup with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Aronado, Wilson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Brendan Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar can be bad. In addition to their 7 guys who posted above-league-average OPSs (.734) last year, the Cardinals are expected to add their top prospect, shortstop Masyn Winn to their MLB roster this year.
The issue with the team in 2023 was their abysmal starting rotation, as their staff posted a 4.79 ERA, 24th in the MLB. However, the front office went to work right away this offseason, signing 3 new starting pitchers. The best of the 3 is Sonny Gray. Gray had an incredible 2023 season with the Twins and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. In 184 innings over 32 games, Gray put up a 2.79 ERA and struck out 183 batters. If Gray can continue doing that in St. Louis, it is safe to say that the Cardinals’ pitching won’t be nearly as bad this season. I expect the St. Louis Cardinals to win between 90 and 95 games in 2024.
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds called up their big-name prospects in 2023, and the kids put on a show. Despite only being called up mid-season, the youngsters led Cincinnati’s lineup to 783 runs, 9th in the MLB. In 2023, not a single batter in the Reds’ starting 9 was above the age of 28, with 6 of them being 26 or younger. The young guys will only improve with experience, especially rookie infielders Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz. McLain silently led the team with a very impressive .864 OPS, while De La Cruz lit the baseball world on fire with his incredible raw skills. De La Cruz can hit the ball harder and can run faster than anyone in the league, once he improves his plate discipline he’ll be a top-tier player. Not to mention their key signing of Jeimer Candelario this offseason. The Reds lineup will be one of the scariest lineups in the league for the next decade.
Cincinnati’s rotation struggled in 2023, as their staff put up a 4.83 ERA, 6th worst in the MLB. However, that’ll happen when your top 4 pitchers are all ages 25 and younger. They are getting reinforcements with two of their top 4 prospects, Rhett Lowder and Connor Phillips being expected to join their major league club this season. In addition, we’ve recently seen the arrival of one of the best young closers in the game, Alexis Díaz, who’s only getting better. Díaz will have a lot of leads in 2024 and will close the door more often than not. I expect the Reds to surpass their total of 82 wins from 2023, take the division by storm, and win above 95 games in 2024.
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