The National League East was one of the top divisions in the MLB in 2023. All 5 teams in the division won 70 or more games, and 3 qualified for the playoffs. Out of the other 5 divisions, only two had five 70-win teams and only one sent 3 teams to the playoffs. In the playoffs, National League East teams faced each other in the wildcard series and divisional series. All five teams have had relatively silent offseasons so far, bringing identical cores back for the 2024 season. With that said, here’s how I think the division will turn out:
5. NEW YORK METS:
On September 14, 2020, a hedge fund manager, valued by Forbes at 19.8 billion dollars, by the name of Steve Cohen bought 97% of the New York Mets. Cohen instantly showed off the depth of his pockets by singing big-name after big-name. Unfortunately, Cohen learned the hard way that you can’t simply pay to win in baseball. Ahead of the 2023 season, Cohen drove up the Mets’ payroll to 343.6 million dollars, the highest in the MLB by 65 million. Nevertheless, New York only won 75 games in 2023 and failed to make the playoffs. Cohen now understands that he has to build his team the right way, from the bottom up, but that will take a while.
The Mets traded away starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, who accounted for 35 starts and 15 wins last season. The Mets haven’t made any major additions this offseason to replace the production, and therefore I expect their rotation to take a step back this year. They do still have a solid core at the top of the lineup, headlined by Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, so they will still be competitive. I expect the New York Mets to win between 70 and 75 games in 2024.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
The Washington Nationals are an interesting team, and they’re in a weird spot heading into 2024. Washington went 71W-91L in 2023 and there’s both reason to believe they’ll take a step forward in 2024 and reason to believe they’ll regress in 2024.
Progress:
The Nationals were led by young bats in 2023, such as their 22-year-old shortstop CJ Abrams and their 24-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz. They had 7 players ages 25 and under play key roles in 2023, with another year of experience, all of those players should improve in 2024. In addition, the Nationals are getting major reinforcements. Washington has two outfield prospects who are top-15 prospects in baseball and are expected to reach the big leagues in 2024. Dylan Crews (7) and James Wood (14) are both great young bats who’ll add a lot to the Nats’ lineup. Between Lane Thomas having a breakout 2023 season, the young guys progressing, and the rookies making an impact, Washington can easily have 6 hitters in their lineup with an OPS above .750 (the average in 2023 was .734).
Regress:
The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff posted a 5.02 ERA in 2023, 27th in the MLB. While their young guys, such as the 24-year-old MacKenzie Gore and the 25-year-old Josiah Gray should progress in 2024, I don’t believe the staff will improve. Patrick Corbin who led the team in games started and innings pitched walked in free agency and they won’t be getting any top prospects to replace him.
In addition, even though they played the last two months of 2023 without Jeimer Candelario, not having their OPS leader will hurt. Before he was traded, Candelario hit 16 home runs and drove in 53 RBIs for the Nats. Furthermore, the Nationals recently signed Joey Gallo to a 1-year contract. While Gallo does hit a lot of home runs, his .177 2023 batting average is the last thing this team needs. Batting average was one of the teams’ few bright spots in 2023 and Gallo will hurt that. Gallo is an outfielder, so he will be taking at-bats away from either the team’s best hitter, Lane Thomas, or one of the two top outfield prospects. I do think that Gallo still is a major league-level hitter, but he’s simply a horrible fit in Washington.
After much thought, I've concluded that the pros slightly outweigh the cons and that Washington will slightly improve in 2024. I expect the Washington Nationals to win between 75 and 80 games in 2024.
3. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
The Philadelphia Phillies are constructed perfectly for the playoffs. Every October, they overperform in the playoffs and create a misconception that they’re a good regular-season team. The truth is that they haven’t won over 90 games since 2011. While in 2023 they did hit 90 wins for the first time in over a decade, I doubt they’ll top 90 in 2024. Zach Wheeler was the only starter in their rotation to start 20 or more games and maintain a sub-4 ERA. Outside of re-signing Aaron Nola, Philly hasn’t done anything to improve their pitching staff this offseason. In fact, they lost their closer Craig Kimbrel who signed with the Baltimore Orioles. The Phillies will see one of their top pitching prospects, Mick Abel in 2024, but that’s not enough.
Nevertheless, while they are overrated, they still are an above-average team. The Phillies will be carried by their lineup in 2024. They brought back all 8 of the hitters that had above-league-average OPSs in 2023. Headlined by multi-time all-stars Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Trea Turner this Philly lineup can put up runs in a hurry.
My concern is the consistent inconsistency in the bottom half of the lineup. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos both mashed for OPS, north of .780 and over 100 RBIs each in 2023. However, they combined for 390 strikeouts, Schwarber put up a .197 batting average and Castellanos put up a .311 on-base percentage. We saw this inconsistency bite the Phillies in the NLCS last year when they blew a 2-0 series lead. The Phillies put up only 3 runs per game in their final 5 playoff games, after averaging 5.75 runs in their previous 8. Therefore, I expect the Phillies to win anywhere between 80 and 90 games in 2024.
2. MIAMI MARLINS:
The Miami Marlins are a very underrated team. Miami went 84W-78L in 2023 and reached the playoffs for only the second time since 2004. However, that record is misleading. The Marlins had a lot of moving pieces in 2023 and didn’t put it all together until late in the year. At one point the Marlins found themselves at 67W-67L, with their playoff hopes seeming bleak, but then they figured it out and won 17 of their final 26 games.
The Marlins took a while to figure it out for several reasons. The biggest of them was that they only brought in two of their best bats at the trade deadline. Jake Burger and Josh Bell are two corner infielders who can hit the cover off the ball. Jake Burger had a breakout 2023 season, hitting a career-high 34 home runs. Meanwhile, Josh Bell is a veteran slugger who has 152 career home runs over 9 seasons. Between the two of them being in Miami for full seasons in 2023, Jazz Chisholm returning from a foot injury, and Luis Arraez being the best contact hitter in baseball, Miami should have a good lineup in 2024.
While they’re lineup can do some damage, the heart and soul of this team is their starting rotation. The Marlins had 3 starters with sub-4 ERAs in 2023, despite their ace, Sandy Alcantara having a down year. I think that Sandy’s struggles in 2023 were a fluke and he’ll be back in Cy Young form in 2024. If he does bounce back, Miami’s starting rotation will be unstoppable. Besides Alcantara, the entire rotation is 25 or younger, so they all are still getting even better. Between a solid lineup and a filthy rotation, the Marlins are going to be good in 2024. I expect the Miami Marlins to win more or less 90 games in 2024, probably between 88 and 93.
ATLANTA BRAVES:
I don’t think this pick needs much explanation. The Los Angeles Dodgers are having a historic offseason, but I still think the Atlanta Braves have a better roster. The Braves’ stats from 2023 look like a glitch. They went 104W-58L on their way to leading the MLB in batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging, ops, and base hits.
The Braves will be even better in 2024 for several reasons. The first being that they were bounced by the Phillies in the NLDS. Having their historic season ruined by their division rivals will motivate the Braves to recreate that season and finish it right this time. In addition, they fleeced the Boston RedSox by trading them their backup shortstop in exchange for Chris Sale. Sale has struggled with the injury bug as of late, but when he’s healthy he’s unhittable. Sale has a career ERA of 3.10 in 1,780 innings pitched. He has 6 top-5 Cy Young finishes and 10 playoff appearances. Between already being great, being motivated, and adding Sale, the Braves will be the best team in baseball again in 2024. I expect the Atlanta Braves to win over 105 games in 2024.
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