The National League West was one of the least competitive divisions in the MLB in 2023 until we got to the playoffs. One team in the division ran away with the regular season lead, but when October came around, a different team prevailed when it mattered most. With one team seeking its revenge and the other looking to prove their success wasn’t a fluke, the NL West will be fun in 2024. Here’s how I think it’ll turn out:
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES:
The San Diego Padres entered the 2023 season with championship aspirations. However, they fell way short. The 2023 Padres went 82W-80L and missed the playoffs. The Padres were desperate to right the ship in the offseason, yet due to their high payroll, their budget was limited. We realized just how bad the situation was when they were forced to take out a 50 million dollar loan to pay their players.
The offseason went as expected. San Diego was forced to trade away their best player, Juan Soto to avoid paying his 30-million-dollar salary. Since Soto is a Scott Boras client he will be testing free agency next year, so the Padres didn’t get much in return for Soto. In addition, their best bullpen arm, Josh Hader signed a 5-year deal with the Houston Astros. Furthermore, San Diego’s ace, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, Blake Snell is currently a free agent and the Padres have not attempted to bring him back. With the losses of Soto, Hader, and Snell, the Padres won’t be nearly as good next year. I expect the San Diego Padres to win between 60 and 70 games in 2024.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES:
The Colorado Rockies had a rough 2023 season, in which they only won 59 games and finished last in their division. Nevertheless, I think Colorado will take a step in the right direction in 2024.
One of the biggest reasons I believe so is Nolan Jones. Since Jones plays for one of the most irrelevant teams and he only played 106 games, a lot of people didn’t notice how amazing he was. Jones hit for both power and average to put together an OPS of .931, beating both Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. The fact that Jones only finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting is outrageous. Nolan Jones is a complete player who’s only getting better. Don’t be shocked if, in a few years, Jones may be in the MVP conversation with Ohtani and Acuna. Nolan Jones wasn’t the only young player to overperform for the Rockies in 2023. 21-year-old shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and 27-year-old starting pitcher Jake Bird were also impressive. The Rockies’ top prospects won’t be ready for a few years, but the Rockies will still slightly improve. Once the reinforcements from the minors arrive, the Rockies can become legit. I expect the Colorado Rockies to win between 65 and 70 games in 2024 and narrowly beat the Padres for fourth place.
3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:
The San Francisco Giants were a slightly below-average team in 2023, going 79W-83L. The Giants were desperately looking to add a superstar last offseason but missed out on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. However, this offseason they took a slightly different approach and it worked out.
The Giants added 3 big pieces this offseason and I’m excited to see what they can do in 2024. The first was starting Pitcher Robbie Ray. Ray missed almost the entire 2024 season due to a flexor tendon strain that required surgery. However, before the injury, Ray was one of the top pitchers in the American League. He won a Cy Young in 2021 and was great again in 2022. If Ray can get back to his 2021 form, he’ll be a force in the loaded west. The second piece was Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jung Hoo Lee was an on-base machine in the KBO and should be a rock at the top of the Giants’ lineup for the next half a decade. He is only 25 years of age and can fly in the outfield and on the bases. The 3rd piece was outfielder Jorge Soler. Throughout his career, Jorge Soler has consistently hit for power while his batting average was abysmal. In 2019 Soler led the American League with 48 home runs. He averages 0.19 homers per game (31.65 in 162) but his career batting average is .243. San Francisco added their contact bat in Jung Hoo Lee and their power bat in Jorge Soler. I expect the San Francisco Giants to win between 85 and 95 games in 2024.
2. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
The Arizona Diamondbacks were one of the most fun, talented, and young teams to watch in the first half of the 2023 season. The Sankes collapsed in the second half and barely hung on to a playoff spot before refinding their magic and going on an incredible playoff run. The major difference between the playoffs and the regular season was their young right-handed pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt. Due to the extra off days in the playoffs, the D-Backs only needed three good starting pitchers. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen were great all year long, and Pfaadt stepped up in the playoffs. Pfaadt’s ERA in 19 games in the regular season was 5.72, however, in the playoffs, he lowered it to 3.27 over 5 games. If playoff Pfaadt shows up in the regular season this year, the Diamondbacks' pitching will be very good.
In addition, their young lineup is only getting better. Led by Corbin Carroll, the D-backs lineup had four starters ages 23 and under. The four combined for 47 home runs and 212 RBIs. Furthermore, the left side of their infield will be getting two new faces who can hit the cover of the ball. The first is the newly acquired third baseman from the Seattle Mariners, Eugenio Suarez, who will replace the aging Evan Longoria. Suarez hit 22 home runs and plated 96 RBIs in 2023. The second is Arizona’s top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar. Lawlar is the 11th-best prospect in all of baseball and made his MLB debut last year. He didn’t quite find his rhythm in his 31 professional at-bats but he’ll have another chance in 2024. This lineup should be able to maintain the strong paste they failed to last year. I expect the Diamondbacks to win between 95 and 100 games in 2024.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS:
I don’t think this pick needs much explanation. The Dodgers won 100 games and the NL West last year but failed to seal the deal in the playoffs. The early exit made them lose their mind and go on a spending spree like nothing baseball has ever seen. The Dodgers gave Shohei Ohtani 700 million dollars, Yoshinobu Yamamoto 325 million, and after acquiring Tyler Glasnow they gave him 105 million. Adding those three (and a few others) to their roster that already won 100 games in 2023, should create a superteam. Nevertheless, if Steve Cohen taught us anything, spending money doesn’t guarantee success in baseball. I do expect the Dodgers to be great in 2024, but they won’t live up to the hype and will lose in the playoffs. Ohtani can’t pitch this year because he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery, Yamamoto has to adjust to the different seams on the MLB ball compared to the NPB ball he’s used to, and Glasnow is injury-prone. I expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to win between 100 and 105 games in 2024, but they will not win the World Series.
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