While the Yankees’ 2024 season did end devastatingly, there is no denying that it was a very successful year for New York. In one year, New York went from missing the playoffs to making the World Series. They now face an extremely pivotal offseason. They’re simultaneously on the brink of a dynasty, and on the brink of being forced into a rebuild. Let’s look at the different factors in play: Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Tim Hill are all unrestricted free agents. Anthony Rizzo, Luke Weaver, and Lou Trivino have club options, and Gerrit Cole has an opt-out. The Yankees have a handful of promising young players ready to break out in the big leagues. Hence, if they handle this offseason properly they should easily be back in the World Series in the foreseeable future. However, if they don’t handle it properly, they will become a rebuilding team that is overreliant on youth.
The Club Options:
Three players have club options. When dealing with club options, the team should look at the player’s recent production, and ask themselves if it was better or worse than they had expected. In accordance, here’s what I expect them to do with each option: I’m 100% sure the Yankees will pick up Luke Weaver’s 1-year 2-million-dollar option, he’s become one of the best relief pitchers in the MLB. Since Lou Trivino didn’t pitch in 2024 due to injury, it can go either way. Nonetheless, he put up the best numbers of his career in his lone year pitching for the Yankees. His option is only worth 1.5 million dollars, so I imagine the Yankees will pick it up. On the other hand, Anthony Rizzo has been extremely injury-prone and inconsistent. There’s no way he’s worth his 1-year 17-million-dollar option. However, as we’ve seen with Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, and DJ LeMahieu, the Yankees love to hang onto washed veterans for way longer than they should. While picking up Rizzo’s option would be preposterous, I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Yankees do it.
Cole’s OPT-OUT:
5 years ago, the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a 9-year 324-million-dollar (36 million dollars per year) deal, with an odd opt-out clause after the fifth year. After the fifth year, Cole can choose to forgo the final four years of the contract. However, the Yankees can force him back into it by adding a 10th year worth 36 million dollars on the back end of the contract. This past season was the fifth year, and the opt-out will come into play this offseason.
Since Cole is 34 years old, and his 2024 season was derailed by injuries it’s hard for me to imagine that he’s worth more in the free-agent market now than he was five years ago. Although, the 36 million dollars per year agreement now, is worth far less than it was worth 5 years ago. Due to inflation, the dollar has dropped by 18.9% since Cole signed his contract and 36 million dollars in 2024 is only worth 29.19 million dollars in 2019. In accordance, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cole opts out of his contract and seeks a contract worth between 30 and 35 million in 2019’s dollars, which would be between 37 million and 43 million in today’s dollars.
Nonetheless, if Cole does choose his opt-out, I expect the Yankees to pick up the 10th year and force him back in. The Yankees’ rotation is nothing without Gerrit Cole, they cannot risk letting other teams make offers. In the World Series, while Gerrit Cole allowed 1 earned run over 12.2 innings in two starts, the rest of the rotation allowed 11 earned runs over 10 innings in three starts. Brian Cashman knows this and he won’t risk losing his ace.
Juan Soto:
In 2023, the New York Yankees had a .683 collective OPS against right-handed pitchers, scored 4.15 runs per game, won 82 games, and missed the playoffs. They then added Juan Soto and his 1.000 career OPS against righties to their lineup. As a result, in 2024, the Yankees had a league-best .777 OPS against righties, scored 5.03 runs per game, won 94 games, and made the World Series for the first time since 2009. They’re two different teams with and without Juan Soto in the lineup.
As I mentioned in my article about Soto’s free agency (click here), Soto’s agent, Scott Boras will sign with whichever team offers him the most money. Yankees owner, Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear that he doesn’t want his team’s payroll to consistently be above 300 million dollars. He most recently expressed himself at the MLB's owners' meetings in May: “ I always say to you guys like a broken record: I don't believe I should have to have a $300 million payroll to win a championship”. Before bringing back any of the unrestricted free agents, the Yankees are currently on the books for 202 million dollars in 2025. That leaves them 98 million dollars to work with, and 115 million dollars if they let go of Rizzo. Considering the impact Soto made on the Yankees lineup, as we saw in the previously mentioned numbers, the Yankees can’t let him go. I expect the Yankees to pass on some of their other unrestricted free agents, to allow themselves to give 55 to 60 million dollars per year to Juan Soto. It will be a brutal and stressful bidding war, but Brian Cashman and the Yankees know very well that Juan Soto means more to their lineup than anyone else. It won’t be cheap, but I have faith that Juan Soto hasn’t played his final game in Yankee pinstripes. I expect the contract to be in the vicinity of 14/15 years worth 750-800 million dollars.
The Remaining Unrestricted Free Agents:
After the Yankees make sure to lockdown Cole and Soto, they can attend to the remaining unrestricted free agents. I believe that the priority order will be as follows: 1. Gleyber Torres. 2. Tommy Kahnle. 3. Clay Holmes. 4. Jonathan Loaisiga. 5. Tim Hill. 6. Aaron Judge’s dog. 7. Alex Verdugo.
Torres: Torres had a down year in 2024, posting a .709 OPS. However, we all know that he’s a far better hitter than that, and I hope the Yankees recognize that and invest in his stock while it’s low. Gleyber’s career OPS is .774, 65 points better than his 2024 number. Around the All-Star break, Gleyber’s OPS was .654 and I already then started talking about buying low on Gleyber’s stock. Between the All-Star break and the end of the regular season, Torres put up a perfectly characteristic .780 OPS. In the final few months of the season, Torres established himself as a valuable leadoff hitter. Gleyber Torres isn’t a great fielder, but the impact a second baseman makes in the field is far smaller than the impact he makes at the plate. While Gleyber has driven in up to 90 runs in a season, his worst defensive run value in a season as a second baseman is negative 5. If possible, Gleyber is worth keeping.
Kahnle: Tommy Kahnle was great in 2024, pitching to a 2.11 ERA over 43 innings. Kahnle played a large role in the Yankees’ 2024 playoff run, pitching in 9 different games. Kahnle was incredible in the ALDS and ALCS, not allowing a single run until the Dodgers tagged him for 3 in the World Series. In 2024, Kahnle’s changeup was one of the best pitches in the MLB, with opponents hitting .157 against it. Nonetheless, the Yankees have been incredible at producing and fixing up relief pitchers, so if Kahnle’s price is too high, letting him walk wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Holmes: Clay Holmes was the Yankees closer for the majority of the 2024 season. After a great start to his season, Holmes fell apart. He was quite terrible in the closer role and blew a league-high 13 saves. After he allowed a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford on September 3rd, he was finally moved out of the closer role. While he is known for blowing saves, he still has great stuff and is a good pitcher when he’s not in his head. Outside of the 9th inning, Holmes was almost unhittable, posting a 2.34 ERA. He played a large part in the Yankees’ playoff run, pitching well in a lot of big situations. Holmes allowed 3 runs over 12 innings in the playoffs, an ERA of 2.25. His free agency status is similar to Kahnle’s. We’d love to have him back but the Yankees have been incredible at producing and fixing up relief pitchers, so if his price is too high, letting Holmes walk wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Loaisiga: Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Jonathan Loaisiga showed us that he can be an incredible asset. He can pitch many innings and stay sharp. During those two seasons, Loaisiga posted a 2.95 ERA in 119 innings over 107 games. However, ever since, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. In 2023, he pitched only 18 innings before undergoing season-ending surgery on a torn UCL. It was worse in 2024, as he pitched only 4 innings before being diagnosed with a UCL tear and undergoing season-ending internal brace elbow surgery. If he’s willing to return on a short and cheap “prove it” deal, that would be great. Yet, he’s far too injury-prone to be worth investing in, especially when the Yankees need to use as much money as they can afford on Cole and Soto.
Hill: Tim Hill was a classic Matt Blake reliever. Hill was a mediocre reliever throughout his entire career and stuck around because some teams like to have a funky lefty. He reached an all-time low when he was let go of by the worst team in baseball in June. However, everything changed when he was scooped up by the Yankees. New York’s pitching coach, Matt Blake is known for making small adjustments that save relievers’ careers. That’s exactly what happened to Tim Hill. In 44 innings with the Yankees, Hill was unhittable, posting a career-best 2.05 ERA. Nonetheless, funky lefties tend to be inconsistent, I have full faith in Blake’s ability to find and create more pitchers like Tim Hill, and the Yankees need to spend their money elsewhere.
Aaron Judge’s dog: Making sure that Gus Judge is happy would help the Yankees more than bringing back Verdugo.
Verdugo: There’s no reason to waste a cent on Verdugo. The Yankees already have Judge and Stanton occupying one outfield spot and the designated hitter role. Hopefully, Juan Soto will occupy the Yankees’ second outfield spot for years to come. In addition, the Yankees’ top two promising prospects, Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones, are both outfielders. If the Yankees give them consistent playing time, the sky is the limit for both young outfielders. Hence, New York has a bit of an overload in the outfield, and there’s no reason to force a 6th guy in there, especially if he can’t hit. Verdugo put up a .233 batting average and a .647 OPS in his lone season as a Yankee in 2024. He was practically an automatic out. Nevertheless, as I mentioned regarding Rizzo, the Yankees love to hang onto washed veterans for way longer than they should. While spending a cent on Verdugo would be preposterous, I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Yankees do it.
If the Yankees successfully bring back Cole, Soto, Gleyber, and Weaver, I will like their odds of returning to the fall classic in the immediate future. The young guys, Wells, Volpe, and Gil should develop and improve with time and experience, and I have high hopes for Dominguez and Jones. If the Yankees play their cards right, they should run the American League for the next half-decade at least. However, they’re a 9-billion-dollar organization that hasn’t won a title since 2009, when do they ever play their cards right?
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