WHY SELL?:
It’s currently Monday, July 29th, 6 AM Eastern Day Time. 36 hours remain before the MLB’s trade deadline. It has been a hectic trade window. As of now, the most recent trade was Isaac Paredes being sent to the Chicago Cubs. However, I’m willing to bet that another trade will have occurred by the time you’re reading this. We’ve already seen teams, such as the Seattle Mariners, show that they’re going all in. Others, such as the Tampa Bay Rays, have shown that they’re clearing the house.
After seeing two WildCard teams reach the World Series in 2023, it can be very tempting to go all-in. In theory, any team within reach of a WildCard spot should add as many players as possible to try to recreate the Rangers’ 2023 playoff run. Nonetheless, the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 2 games above .500 and only 2 games out of a WildCard spot have chosen to restart. Tampa Bay has already traded away 4 key players, Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam, and most recently Isaac Paredes. On top of that, we’re also seeing reports and rumors that Tampa is looking to move Peter Fairbanks and Yandy Diaz. If they’re only a small hot streak away from being back in contention, why would they get rid of 6 of their best players?
THE RISK OF BUYING:
The first part of the answer can be found in the disaster that was the Los Angeles Angels’ 2023 trade deadline. The Angels knew that they couldn’t afford to bring back Shohei Ohtani after the 2023 season. The 2023 season was their last season of possessing the most entertaining player in baseball. Hence, when the first half of the 2023 season went poorly, the Angels should’ve sold off Ohtani for assets that will help them long-term. However, the Angels’ general manager, Perry Minasian, runs a business, not a baseball team (his objective is making money over winning). The fans come out to the ballpark to see Shohei Ohtani, they put the game on TV to see Shohei Ohtani, and they buy merchandise to be like Shohei Ohtani. Minasian knew that 60 games of Ohtani could make a lot of money. In accordance, he didn’t want to trade Ohtani. The only way to justify not trading Ohtani was by claiming to be a contender. Despite being far out of a WildCard spot, the Angels decided to go all in. They traded half of their top 10 prospects for veterans nearing the end of their contract.
To nobody’s surprise, the Angels missed the playoffs. Along with Ohtani, all of the veterans the Angels acquired at the trade deadline left in free agency. The Angels were left with a poor roster, one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and a high payroll. The 2024 Angels are currently 46W-60L, the 5th-worst record in major league baseball. They stink and have no way of improving their roster in the foreseeable future. The upcoming few years are going to be ugly in Anaheim, they should’ve just traded away Ohtani.
THE REWARD OF SELLING:
At the 2023 trade deadline, the New York Mets were 36W-46L, in 4th place in their division, and 18.5 games out of 1st place. Inevitably, the front office decided to throw in the towel and sell veterans for prospects at the deadline. Fans of rival teams, such as myself, danced on the Mets’ grave. The Mets traded away 5 key veterans, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, Justin Verlander, Tommy Pham, and Dominic Leone. We Yankee fans thought this was great. Little did we know, Steve Cohen was cooking up a storm.
A year later, the Mets are 55W-50L and in possession of a WildCard spot. A big part of the difference has been young players making significant contributions. The 24-year-old Mark Vientos is leading the team in OPS and the 26-year-old Jose Butto has been brilliant out of the bullpen. On top of that, the Mets 5 of the top-100 prospects in baseball. Between their current core and the reinforcements they’re to receive, the Mets are going to consistently be a playoff team for years to come. 3 out of their 5 top-100 prospects were acquired by trading away the previously mentioned veterans at the 2023 trade deadline. By giving up on one season, the Mets put themselves in a significantly better position for the next decade.
THE TAMPA BAY RAYS:
The Tampa Bay Rays are known as the best of the best when it comes to strategic team building. Without leaving the bottom 8 in payrolls, the Rays have been at least 10 games over .500 in each of the previous 6 seasons. Before this season, their best player ran into legal issues and can no longer be with the team. This incident, which was out of their control has led to the Rays’ first not-great season since 2017. Despite not being out of reach, their front office elected to sell everyone. Considering how beneficial of a long-term move it has been to sell at the deadline and their front offices’s track record, there is no doubt in my mind that this move will pay off. Tampa Bay already had an arguably top-5 farm system, before their deadline trades. A week ago, Homer Bush was the Rays’ 15th-ranked prospect. Since then, the Rays have acquired 5 higher-ranked prospects, pushing Bush down to 20. The Rays are at it again and in just a few years, Tampa Bay will once again be one of the top teams in the American League.
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