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Nathan Aronoff

Will the Ohtani Contract Ruin the Dodgers?


THE SWEEPSTAKES:

Coming off his second MVP season, Shohei Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes were a historic affair. A two-way superstar such as Ohtani had never been seen in the game of baseball before, not even since Babe Ruth. Naturally, the determination of the Japanese star’s new home was the spectacle of the winter, yet nobody anticipated such a colossal number. The Los Angeles Dodgers put an end to the anticipation by inking Ohtani to a 700-

million-dollar contract. Yet, I’m concerned, is 700 million over 10 years too much?


THE TOMMY JOHN CONCERN:

Shohei’s contact year was cut short on the mound due to a season-ending UCL injury that required Tommy John Surgery. Tommy John Surgery is every pitcher’s worst nightmare. The surgery required a 9-12 month recovery and even after the long recovery, there is no guarantee that the pitcher will return to his previous form. Even if the pitcher does return to form, these injuries are often followed up by more issues. 

A good example of a once prolific pitcher who struggled with both of the previously mentioned issues is Luis Severino. Severino had a breakout 2017 season in which he threw 193 innings with a 2.98 ERA. He proved that his 2017 campaign wasn’t a fluke by putting together a second great year in 2018. Severino threw 191 innings with a 3.39 ERA, very similar to his previous season. After consecutive great campaigns, the Yankees believed they’d found their ace in Severino. Then things went downhill. Severino sat out most of the 2019 season due to a lat strain, then underwent Tommy John surgery in February. Luis Severino’s injury issues continued over into 2020, and due to the shortened season, he never got the chance to pitch in the COVID year. 2021 was more of the same, as Luis only pitched 6 innings the entire year. In 2022 Severino finally started getting into a rhythm as he made 19 starts before he was placed on the injured list Saturday with a high-grade left oblique strain, ending his season. Going into his 2023 contract year, Severino was required to prove that there was gas left in the tank if he was to receive an extension from the Yankees. That did not happen. Severino missed the first two months of the season before putting up laughable numbers as the Yankees struggled. Instead of putting up a historic contract year, like Aaron Judge’s 2022, Severino ended his contract year with a 4W-8L record and a 6.65. Severino’s combined stat line from the 5 years following his Tommy John Surgery tally up to 209 innings, 13W-12L, and an ERA of 4.47. If Shohei Ohtani’s next five seasons look like that, this contract will go down as the worst contract in MLB history. 


THE LONGEVITY CONCERN:

Ohtani’s 700 million contract will only be spread across 10 years, on average 70 million dollars a year. It is highly unlikely that Ohtani will be the same player in a decade. Several long contracts have backfired, however, I chose one specific one to dive into as an example. Said contract is the 161-million-dollar deal the Baltimore Orioles handed Chris Davis. 

From 2013 through 2015, the Orioles’ first baseman went on an incredible run, including a 1.004 OPS season in which he finished in third place in MVP voting. After Davis’s 47 homerun year in 2015, the O’s decided to lockdown their star slugger on a long-term deal and inked Davis to a seven-year, $161 million contract (the largest in Orioles history). After securing the bag, Davis instantly saw a decrease in every major stat. His home run total dropped from 47 to 38, his RBI total dropped from 117 to 84, his batting average dropped by 41 points, and his OPS dropped by 131 points. That was only the beginning. His worst season came in 2018 when he put up 16 homers, 49 RBIs, a .168 batting average, and a .539 OPS, despite being paid 17 million dollars. Davis’s 17 million was 6.5 million dollars more than Mookie Betts who won the MVP award that season. Even though Baltimore knew that his 2018 campaign wasn’t even worth a penny, they still had to pay Davis 34 million dollars over the next two years.

If Ohtani has a similar decrease, the Dodgers will be forced to pay him 70 million a year through 2033 whether they like it or not. In 2024, Ohtani’s 70 million dollars will be more than the entire payroll of eight different teams. 


THE TEAMMATES CONCERN:

The Dodgers believe that Ohtani was worth the 700 million because adding him to their already talented roster gives them a great shot at winning multiple fall classics. The Dodgers won 100 games and sent five representatives to the All-Star game in 2023. However, such talent will eventually need to be paid. The Dodgers are already paying Mookie Betts (age 31) 30 million dollars and Freddie Freeman (age 34) 27 million as well. When three players are taking up 127 million dollars per year, it will be challenging for the Dodgers to extend Walker Buehler after the upcoming season, plus Max Muncy and Will Smith the next offseason. Even though the argument can be made to view Ohtani’s value as two players, letting the rest of the team fall apart will not have good results. We already saw Max Scherzer leave Los Angeles because of similar reasons, and go win a World Series elsewhere.  

Ohtani is rumored to be differing most of his salary until after his tenure with the team. Doing so would allow the Dodgers to spend money while he’s around, but later force them to pay over 60 million dollars a year to a man who’s not even on their roster.


MY FINAL TAKE:

The Ohtani signing will be great for Los Angeles, in the short term. However, there is no doubt in my mind that the Dodgers will feel “stuck” with the large contract. There is no way Ohtani’s body can keep up the two-way superstardom and all three of my concerns will come into effect. Now the only question remaining is: “Is it worth it to win a fall classic in exchange for a couple of down years?” In my opinion, for a franchise like the Dodgers, it is not. The Dodgers have a prolific front office who are notorious for making big moves. Those moves helped the team win a World Series in 2020 without paying a player 70 million dollars. The Dodgers could have stuck with that strategy and won another one or two World Series with their current core, but instead chose to handcuff themselves for the next decade. Call me a salty Yankee fan, but I think the Dodgers dug their own grave. 





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