The 2024 World Series will kick off this Friday in Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the top seed in the National League, will face the New York Yankees, the top seed in the American League. After 3 of the past 4 World Series teams were WildCard teams, it’s refreshing to have two top-seeded juggernauts face in the “Fall Classic”. This is the first time since 1976 that the top seed in both the American League and the National League have won their pennants. The 2024 World Series will be the 12th time the two historic franchises have stood in each other’s path to a championship. In addition, Los Angeles’s Shohei Ohtani and New York’s Aaron Judge are each expected to win the MVP awards of their respective leagues. If that does happen, it will be the first time since 2012 that the two MVPs faced off in the World Series. With all that said, let’s discuss who I think will win and why I believe so.
The Dodgers’ Advantages:
If we look at each team individually, we’ll see that the Dodgers are better. The Dodgers won 4 regular season games more than the Yankees did and had a better run differential by 9. That’s a result of their roster being strong in all areas and better rounded. The Yankees have plenty of stars, but their roleplayers are shaky. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have both superstars and solid roleplayers. A lot of the Dodgers’ roleplayers would be considered the stars on most other teams.
While the Yankees relied on Judge and Soto as their only hitters with OPSs above .775, the Dodgers had Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani all above .830. At the bottom of the lineup, while the Yankees had 3 starters with OPSs under .660, only a singular Dodgers starter posted an OPS below .700. In addition, the Dodgers hit well against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers. While the Yankees lead the league with an OPS of .777 against righties, with the Dodgers only .001 behind at .776, the Dodgers’ .795 OPS against lefties has the Yankees’ .721 beat by .074.
The Dodgers have a considerable advantage on the other side of the ball as well. The Yankees’ 2, 4, and 5 pitchers, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, and Nestor Cortes, have each had 7 or more implosion starts in which they allowed 4 or more runs. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ rotation has been more consistent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been incredible, holding opponents to 2 runs or fewer in all but 6 starts this season. Walker Buehler has been great in the postseason, holding opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 12 out of his 17 playoff starts. Jack Flaherty has been a rock, holding opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 23 out of 28 starts this year. Furthermore, the Dodgers’ bullpen ERA of 3.53 ranked 4th-best in the MLB, two ahead of the Yankees’ 6th-best bullpen ERA of 3.62.
Last but not least, the Dodgers have the advantage of a more proven manager. Dave Roberts has won a World Series both as a manager and a player. 2024 has been Roberts’ 9th season as the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. This upcoming series will be his 10th 7-game series and 4th World Series. On the other hand, outside of one swing in the 2003 ALCS, Aaron Boone hasn’t found postseason success as a player or manager. 2024 has been his 7th season as the manager of the New York Yankees. This upcoming series will be Boone’s 4th 7-game series and his 1st World Series. Boone has struggled in 7-game series and his teams have a record of 6W-9L in these series.
The Yankees’ Advantages:
While the Dodgers do have the better roster and manager, the stars are aligning perfectly for New York. The matchups, splits, and injuries go the Yankees’ way every time.
Starting with the way the Dodgers’ pitching staff matches up with the Yankees’ lineup. The Dodgers’ top 2 left-handed starters, Tyler Glasnow and James Paxton are both on the IL and won’t be able to play in the World Series. That leaves Los Angeles’s rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Michael Kopech, who are all right-handed pitchers. By coincidence, the Yankees lineup is significantly better against right-handed pitchers. They led the MLB this season with an OPS of .777 against righties. The Dodgers’ two lefties going down with injuries will be extremely advantageous for New York. In addition, out of the 4 relief pitchers the Dodgers use the most, Daniel Hudson, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, and closer Evan Phillips, Vesia is the only lefty. The Yankees showed us what they can do against right-handed relievers in the ALCS. The Guardians had 3 right-handed relievers with sub-2 ERAs, and the Yankees destroyed them for 10 earned runs in only 9.1 innings.
On the other side of the ball, the Yankees have figured things out exactly at the right time. While the Dodgers may have the edge in bullpen ERA, the Yankees’ team ERA of 3.74 is tied for the 6th-best in baseball and is 7 ahead of the Dodgers’ 13th-best ERA of 3.90. New York’s pitching staff has been great in recent months due to 3 factors. The first is Carlos Rodon and Luis Gil breaking out of their slumps. As I previously mentioned, both Rodon and Gil had 7 or more implosion starts in which they allowed 4 or more runs. However, in the final two months of the season, the implosions became more and more infrequent. Gil held opponents to 1 run or fewer in 7 of his final 12 starts and Rodon allowed 4 or more runs in only 2 of his final 13 starts. So far this postseason, the Yankees have 3 out of the 4 games started by Rodon or Gil. The second factor is the return of Clarke Schmidt. Clarke Schmidt was putting up a Cy Young-caliber season before he got hurt at the end of May. He returned in September and has been ramping up slowly back to his pre-injury form. Schmidt’s absence or presence has had ripple effects on the Yankees’ entire pitching staff. When Clarke Schmidt was on the shelf, the Yankees were 43W-41L, and when he was on their active roster they went 51W-27L. Schmidt pitched well in his lone postseason start, holding a good Cleveland offense to 2 runs over 5 innings. The 3rd and final factor is the emergence of Luke Weaver, AKA “Weave Dawg”. Clay Holmes was the Yankees’ closer for the majority of the season. However, he struggled in big situations, blew a league-leading 13 saves, and pitched to a 3.14 ERA. After Holmes allowed a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford on September 3rd, Aaron Boone had seen enough. He decided to replace Holmes in the closer role with Luke Weaver. Between September 4th and the end of the season, Weaver pitched 11 innings, struck out 24 batters, picked up 4 saves, and didn’t allow a run. Weaver developed a reputation of holding in all of his emotions during the 9th innings, and then letting them all out at once like a madman the moment the game was won. Weaver has been almost as good in the playoffs, as he’s already picked up 12 strikeouts and 4 saves. Between Rodon, Gil, Schmidt, and Weaver, the Yankees’ pitching staff is far better than what their numbers suggest.
My Pick:
While both sides have valid arguments and reasons to pick them, only one team will win. I expect the series to be a great one, a back-and-fourth battle, a thriller for one side, and a heartbreaker for the other. Unfortunately, as a Yankee fan, I expect to be on the heartbroken side. The deciding factors are the gaps between the OPS splits and the consistency gap.
When facing right-handed pitchers, the Yankees have a .001 advantage in OPS. However, when facing left-handed pitchers, the Dodgers have an OPS advantage of .074. While the Dodgers will likely start righties in every game, it’s almost guaranteed that New York will start the left-handed Carlos Rodon in 2 games, and we may see the left-handed Nestor Cortes in either game 3 or game 4.
In addition, the set-up guys in the Yankees’ bullpen concern me. Holmes has played a key role, as the Yankees have used Holmes in the 7th inning or later in 6 of their 9 playoff games. As I mentioned above, Holmes has collapsed in high-leverage pressure situations. No situation is more of a high-leverage pressure situation than the late innings of a World Series game. In accordance, I expect Holmes to be a weak link in the upcoming series. In addition, Tommy Kahnle concerns me. This postseason, Kahnle has been extremely reliant on his changeup and New York has been extremely reliant on Kahnle. Kahnle has thrown his changeup on over 85% of his pitches in the playoffs, and the Yankees have used Kahnle in the 8th inning or later in 6 of their 9 playoff games. The Dodgers have 5 hitters with 46 or more extra-base hits. It doesn’t matter how good Kahnle’s changeup is, when these hitters are waiting for it, they’ll inevitably eventually crush a few. I don’t expect Kahnle to be effective in the upcoming series.
Between disadvantages in the starting lineup and the bullpen, it will be hard for the Yankees to match the Dodgers blow-for-blow. In accordance, my prediction is that the Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the New York Yankees 4-2 in the 2024 World Series. Dodgers in 6.
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