This past offseason the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to a 12-year 325-million-dollar contract. Yamamoto made his MLV debut on March 21st, in the second game of the MLB’s Seoul Series between the Dodgers and Padres. Saying that the debut was underwhelming is an understatement. The Padres whacked 5 runs off Yamamoto and knocked him out of the game after only a single inning. Let’s explain why this might have happened and why I believe Yamamoto will be fine.
YAMAMOTO IS INCREDIBLE:
In 2017, the 19-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto first broke onto the NPB scene with the Orix Buffaloes. In 2017, the kid appeared in 13 games, starting 5 of them. Yamamoto finished his debut season with a 3W-1L record and a ridiculous 2.35 ERA in over 57 innings pitched. Right from the start, it was evident that this kid was special. In his sophomore season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto took a small step forward by adding 20 innings to his workload and lowering his ERA to 2.10, however, his win percentage stayed at 75.0%. Through his first two seasons, the NPB began to realize that Yamamoto had unique potential.
In his age 21 season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto took a major step forward, into stardom. Yamamoto threw a career-high 149 innings and posted a career-low 1.99 ERA, however, yet again did not improve his win percentage. He put himself on the map that year by throwing his first complete game shutout. In 2020 Yamamoto took a bit of a step back as his ERA rose to 2.20 and he threw 23 innings less. He did continue to show that his win percentage and ERA weren’t related as it did rise compared to 2019. Yoshinobu did come up big in the 2020 Summer Olympics as he led Japan to a gold medal and was selected to the All-Olympians team. Yamamoto’s big-time performance in the Olympics was only a sign of things to come.
Entering the 2021 season, Yamamoto began one of the greatest runs seen from any pitcher, NPB or MLB. In 2021 Yamamoto went 18W-5L while pitching nearly 200 innings and posting an unhuman 1.39 ERA. Unsurprisingly, Yamamoto’s 2021 campaign won the 23-year-old his first MVP and Sawamura Award, the award given to Japan’s best pitcher. There was no way he could recreate such an insane season right? Not quite. In 2022, Yamamoto pitched just as many innings yet saw his ERA rise to 1.68. The fact that I wrote “rise” before 1.68 should tell you just how ridiculous these two seasons were. Naturally, Yamamoto was rewarded with his second straight MVP and Sawamura Award.
Before Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fifth season in the NPB, the stud pitcher chose to represent team Japan in the 2023 WBC. Yamamoto officially put himself on the baseball world map as he put up a 2.45 ERA on his way to leading Japan to a gold medal. The MLB world then realized that this kid was pretty special and entering a contract year, he might be worth keeping an eye on. Then it happened, with the entire baseball world speculating, Yoshinobu Yamamoto put up his best season yet. Over 171 innings, Yamamoto went 17W-6L while putting up an unimaginable 1.16 ERA. To put things into context, in Yamamoto’s average start he’d throw 7 innings and allow 1 run.
Yamamoto and the Buffaloes cruised through the NPB playoffs and right to the Japan Series (the NPB finals) against the Hanshin Tigers. The series went back and forth and eventually led to the Buffaloes trailing 3-2 entering game 6 with Yamamoto lined up to start. Emotions ran high before the game as Yamamoto knew that this could potentially be his last game in Japan, his last game in the NPB, and his last game as an Orix Buffalo. Yamamoto got off to a questionable start as he allowed a solo home run in the second inning. However, with his legacy on the line, Yamamoto-Magic took over. Yoshinobu Yamamoto caught fire and answered the homer with seven scoreless innings. Orix won the game 5-1, forcing a game 7. Yamamoto completed the game with an incredible tally of 14 strikeouts. The kid’s final start was one for the ages. Unfortunately, Yamamoto couldn’t pitch in game 7 and the Buffaloes let him down, losing the deciding game 7-1. After this heartbreaking loss, Yamamoto’s NPB career came to a close and he signed his current deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE BASEBALL:
Due to some legal complications, former Cy Young Award winner, Trevor Bauer chose to play the 2023 season in Japan. Bauer signed a 1-year deal with the Yokohama Dena Baystars of the NPB. Bauer decided to vlog his experience in Japan and post videos on YouTube. Bauer loves growing the game of Baseball, the vlogs were part of it, and something he had done before during the COVID-19 season. Being a former Cy Young Award winner, who’s posted five double-digit win seasons in the MLB, Bauer was expected to dominate immediately in the NPB. Nevertheless, Bauer struggled out of the gate. After allowing seven runs in two innings in a start, Bauer took a couple of days off to figure things out. In his vlog, he discussed the difference between the NPB ball and the MLB ball. The circumference of the MLB ball is 9¼ inches, while the circumference of the NPB ball is 9⅛ inches. The two balls are also made of different types of leather. The NPB ball is said to be “slightly tackier”. Bauer explained that the seams stick out of the ball differently. He discussed how these three differences have a big effect on the spin and aerodynamics of the ball. The spin and aerodynamics are what make a pitch move and that is what makes a pitch good or not. After Bauer took the time off to adjust and pitched in one minor league game, he came back in fashion. Despite an awful start, Trevor Bauer finished the season with a 10W-4L record and a 2.76 ERA. In my opinion, that is more than enough to prove the difference in the baseballs has a real impact on the pitcher’s success.
While it doesn’t affect every single pitcher, it makes perfect sense to say that Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s struggles have been caused by this. Yamamoto pitched under 10 innings in spring training and posted an awful 8.38 ERA. Therefore, it is not surprising that he struggled in his debut, he clearly hasn’t made the adjustment yet.
GOING FORWARD:
In my opinion, just like Trevor Bauer, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will eventually figure out how to use the new baseball. He will bounce back and have a great season. Yamamoto still has 11.95 seasons left to his contract, so the verdict is far from set. He is an incredible pitcher and will make sure he’s worth the Dodgers’ money. My prediction, on March 24th, 2024, three days removed from Yamamoto’s horrible debut, is that Yoshinobu Yamamoto (not necessarily this year) will win an NL Cy Young Award!
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