Between the MLB trade deadline being less than a month away, and the Yankees’ recent struggles, my mind has begun to race. I can’t help but wonder who the Yankees will acquire at the end of the month. Therefore, I made a list of the 5 players I believe would be the best possible acquisitions for the Yankees. I took the players on losing teams who are approaching free agency, compared them to the Yankees’ needs, and checked if their analytics would play well off of the analytics of the players on the Yankees’ current roster. The Yankees have two major needs, one in their lineup, which has two parts, and one in their rotation:
NEED 1A:
The New York Yankees have gotten almost zero offensive production from their basemen. After a horrible first half of the season, Gleyber Torres has begun to wake up recently. Ben Rice has looked good since his call-up to the big leagues, but it’s unwise to rely on a rookie in the playoffs. Jon Berti was decent early in the year, but he’s on the 60-day IL with a high-grade left calf strain, and his timetable is unclear. Therefore, if the Yankees want to beat the top teams in the playoffs, they must add at least one or two infielders.
NEED 1B:
Having diversity throughout the entire lineup is critical in the playoffs. If a hitter has a weakness in his game, it’s not the end of the world, unless the pitcher’s strength plays to it. There is only one way to prevent the opponent from bringing in pitchers to beat said weakness. It’s to have other batters behind him, who are strong in the area where the first batter is weak. (In the 2022 postseason, we saw how important it is. The Yankees’ offense scored 4.98 runs per game in the 2022 season. They faced the Houston Astros in the ALCS. Houston realized that almost all of the Yankees’ batters were much better at hitting fastballs than off-speed pitches. Houston used curveball specialists to hold New York’s lineup to 1.33 runs per game in the first 3 games of the series.)
The 2024 Yankees have good diversity at the top of their lineup. However, I’ve recognized a problem in the bottom half. Alex Verdugo, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres are all in the bottom 38% in the MLB in average exit velocity. There are a handful of pitchers who “pitch to contact”. That means that their pitches don’t move so much, and they only move at the very end. Which makes it easier to get the bat on the ball, but harder to hit the ball well. If the batter’s strong enough to hit the ball over the outfielders or shoot the ball through the infield without hitting it perfectly, he’ll be fine. If not, the hitter will not be effective against pitchers who “pitch to contact”. Chris Bassitt is a classic “pitch to contact” pitcher, 17th percentile in whiff% and 72nd in average exit velocity against. Sure enough, when he faced the Yankees on June 29th, he retired Verdugo, LeMahieu, and Torres 6 out of 7 times. Bassitt pitched 6 scoreless frames and the Yankees lost by a large margin. In accordance, when the Yankees acquire infielders at the deadline, they should get guys with high average exit velocities. Ideally, a right-handed hitter, who can be put right behind their left-handed outfielder, Alex Verdugo.
NEED 2:
The Yankees’ recent struggles have been due to poor efforts from the starting pitchers. In the second half of June, Yankees’ starters have allowed 5 or more earned runs on 6 occasions. In the playoffs, the Yankees will need 4 starters, who they can rely on to give them a chance to win. At the moment, the only guys they can trust are Gerrit Cole, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt. Cole is Cole, he’s the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. In 17 starts, Marcus Stroman has only allowed 5 runs once this year. Before going on the injured list, in each of his 11 starts, Schmidt allowed 3 runs or fewer. That’s 3 reliable right-handed pitchers. In October, they will face lineups with good left-handed and switch-hitting batters: Henderson, Rutschman, Mullins, and Santander on the Orioles, Ramirez, Naylor, and Kwan on the Guardians, and Ohtani, Freeman, Lux, and Muncy on the Dodgers. If New York wants a shot at winning the World Series, they need a 4th starter, and it has to be a lefty. The Yankees’ two lefties, Cortes and Rodon, have allowed 4 or more runs in 9 out of their 35 starts. The Yankees cannot rely on them in the playoffs. Hence, New York needs to trade a good, left-handed starting pitcher.
5. 3B/1B Miguel Sano:
Miguel Sano should be the Yankees’ backup plan if they can’t get the other guys on the list. Sano’s stats weren’t good in 2022, he missed all of the 2023 season, but he looked better in the first 21 games of 2024. He went down with knee inflammation in early May but returned to the Angels’ lineup last week. While his high whiff% and strikeout% aren’t ideal, Sano’s average exit velocity is 94.6 miles per hour, better than 99% of the league. He can play both first and third base, making him a perfect replacement for DJ LeMahieu. In addition, he’s a right-handed hitter, so he’d be a great fit in the lineup between the lefties Alex Verdugo and Ben Rice. His poor 2022 stats might scare away some, but it was only a 20-game sample before he got hurt. He has a .645 OPS in 26 games this season, and a .778 OPS in his last healthy season. The Angels are irrelevant this year, and Sano will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Therefore, he’ll be cheap and the Angels will accept almost anything they’re offered for him. The Yankees are currently starting DJ LeMahieu who has a .497 OPS, so Sano’s a big upgrade.
4. 1B Pete Alonso:
The New York Mets’ superstar first baseman, Pete Alonso, will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Alonso would be a very good fit for the Yankees. He’s a right-handed first baseman who hits the ball harder than almost anyone. The Mets’ current roster is not properly equipped for a deep playoff run. Last July, when the Mets’ roster wasn’t properly equipped for a deep playoff run, they traded away a bunch of stars, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, Justin Verlander, and Tommy Pham. They did so to load up on prospects. The Yankees have the prospects to give. 3 of their top 5 prospects are outfielders, Dominguez, Jones, and Pereira. They don’t need all 3, especially not if they resign Juan Soto. In addition, their 3rd-best and 7th-best prospects are right-handed starting pitchers. As I mentioned above, the Yankees don’t need any more of those. The Yankees can put together a better trade package than most teams in need of a power-hitting first baseman.
The issue is that the Mets might not be open to trading Alonso. Alonso is a fan favorite and the Mets’ owner, Steve Cohen, is a known people-pleaser. In addition, the Mets have been playing good baseball recently and have fought their way back into the NL wildcard race. While they don’t have the pitching to go on a deep playoff run, they might decide to try to reach the NLDS or NLCS. Nevertheless, if they do entertain offers for Pete Alonso, expect the Yankees to make a big push.
3. LHP Robbie Ray;
In 2022, the Toronto Blue Jays’ Robbie Ray, was the best left-handed pitcher in the MLB. Ray posted a 2.84 ERA, struck out 248 batters, and won the AL Cy Young award. He was a free agent at the end of the year. Fittingly, Ray signed a massive 5-year 115-million-dollar contract with the Seattle Mariners, with a player option after 3 years. Ray took a small step back in his first year in Seattle. Nonetheless, a 3.71 ERA with 212 strikeouts is still a great season. In his very first game in 2023, Robbie Ray hurt his throwing elbow and required Tommy John surgery. At that point, the Mariners gave up on him and traded him to the San Francisco Giants. Ray’s yet to make his debut with the Giants. Ray has made 4 rehab starts and is scheduled to make his fifth on Thursday.
Meanwhile, almost everything has gone wrong for the Giants in the 2024 season. Neither of their two biggest signings have worked out, Blake Snell is on the IL for the second time, and Jung Hoo Lee is out for the season. The Giants are over 10 games back in their division and are rapidly losing ground in the wildcard race. With 5 of their top 8 prospects, including 3 of their 4 guys on the MLB’s top-100 prospect list, expected to be with the big league club next season, it’s unlikely that they’ll go all-in. Therefore, it’s likely that they’ll be open to trading Ray and other veterans at the deadline. It’ll take a lot, but if the Yankees can get their hands on Ray, it can change the trajectory of their entire playoff run. Especially if he’s back to form and is the lights-out lefty he was in 2021. Due to all logic encouraging Ray to pick up his option, he’s expected to be under team control for another two seasons, which is problematic. This will significantly inflate his trade price. However, the Giants probably won’t be completely throwing in the white flag and won’t want to send Ray to a fellow NL team. Losing in the playoffs to a pitcher who they recently traded away can cost many their jobs. Amongst the AL contenders, the Yankees have more resources than others and can make it happen.
It’s worth noting that in these situations the team that trades the player away usually pays the majority of the salary. For example, the Mets are paying 60% of Max Scherzer’s salary. Between the trade to the Giants and from the Giants, the Yankees won’t have to worry much about Ray’s salary. Therefore, even when Ray inevitably picks up his 2-year 50-million-dollar option, it shouldn't interfere with the Yankees' ability to bring back Juan Soto.
2. 3B Yoan Moncada:
The Chicago White Sox have been a mess in recent years. They currently have the worst record in the MLB and are expected to enter a complete rebuild. The first step will be trading their few players of value for any prospects they can get at the deadline. Amongst said few players of value, is Yoan Moncada. Moncada has a club option this offseason and will become an unrestricted free agent the next. Chicago won’t be contenders in the next 2 years, so they’re not going to want to hold onto Moncada. While Moncada is primarily a third baseman, he has played every base in the big leagues. He was a good switch-hitter in 2021 (.787 OPS) and 2023 (.730 OPS), with a bit of a down year in the middle (.626 OPS, .139 better than LeMahieu in 2024). Moncada only played 11 games in 2024 before going down with a left abductor strain. On June 23rd, Chicago’s manager, Pedro Grifol said that he expects Moncada to return in late July. In 2023, Moncada’s 88.4 mile-per-hour average exit velocity was above average. In his 44 plate appearances in 2024 before getting hurt, he stepped it up to 90.2 miles per hour, which would put him in the 69th percentile.
Between Moncada’s versatility in the infield, his availability in the market, his ability to hit from either side of the plate, and his high average exit velocity, there’s no reason the Yankees shouldn’t do what it takes to add Yoan Moncada to their roster. Especially because some teams will be scared off by his abductor strain, the Yankees shouldn’t have an issue outbidding other contenders. It’s almost a risk-free move because if he doesn’t work out, the Yankees can exercise his club option this offseason and dump him. Regarding Alonso and Sano, I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Yankees pass or are outbidden. However, I will be genuinely frustrated if Cashman doesn’t acquire Yoan Moncada.
1. LHP Sean Manaea:
As I mentioned above, the New York Mets’s roster isn’t properly equipped for a deep playoff run. One of the pitchers at the top of their rotation would make a great 3 or 4 guy in other rotations. This pitcher is Sean Manaea. He’s not in the discussion for the Cy Young award or all-star honors, but he’s still a very decent left-handed pitcher. Manaea has a 3.67 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 16 starts this season. He has a player option at the end of this season and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the next. As I discussed earlier, the Mets have recently traded many veterans in exchange for prospects. The Yankees have enough depth in their farm system to make a deal.
It would be the perfect trade for both sides. The Mets aren’t going to be World Series contenders this year or the next. Therefore, it would be wise to use Manaea to get prospects to add to the young core they’re building and developing. On the other hand, the Yankees would get a left-handed starter who can perfectly slip into the 3 or 4 spot in their rotation. In addition, unlike Robbie Ray, they can’t get stuck with him long-term. So his trade price wouldn't be too high, and he wouldn’t interfere with any of their other long-term moves, such as resigning Juan Soto or developing Luis Gil. In NEED 2 I mentioned all of the left-handed sluggers that the Yankees will face if they make the ALCS and World Series. If the Yankees get Manaea and play their cards right, Manaea can start games 3 and 4 of a 7-game series. Winning game 3 increases a team's odds of winning the series by 13.8% and winning game 7 increases the team’s odds by 50%. Manaea won’t be overly expensive and he can be a huge piece of the 2024 Yankees’ run at the club’s 28th World Series title.
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